timing is everything

July 5, 2019July 5, 2019

Trump & Powell Go Full Icarus (Weekly Update)

***Greek Mythology: Icarus ignored his father’s instructions not to fly too close to the sun; when the wax in his wings melted he tumbled out of the sky and fell into the sea where he drowned, sparking the idiom “don’t fly too close to the sun”.

Today’s Shiller’s S&P P/E Ratio is exactly where it was in October of 1929 or right before the historic collapse. Now, that is not to say that we will have a crash, but rather, to point out that today’s market is quite expensive.

When we take that fact alone into consideration, today’s market setup is quite interesting. The bulls would argue that “Trump’s Economic Miracle” we are all witnessing will go on for the foreseeable future. We will get our interest rate cuts, the system will once again be flooded with liquidity, real economic growth is irrelevant in relation to buybacks, etc….. New all time highs are a “sure thing”.

The bears would surely have a heart attack after hearing such a bullish bias. They would be quick to point out that we are in a financial bubble of historic proportions, the yield curve is inverted, interest rates are already low and the real economy/earnings are plunging faster than Joe Biden’s poll numbers.

Who’s right?

The bears are most definitely right, but the timing is of the essence. Will we get that final hurrah rally or have the wings already melted? We are about to find out. In the meantime, if you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here

This Week’s Journal consists of the following topics

Finally, you don’t have to guess what the stock market will do next under today’s extreme conditions. If you would like to find out exactly what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here.

Please Note: Our latest call was a direct hit. While everyone was panicking our work projected an important bottom on December 27th (+/- 1 trading day) on the Dow at 21,725 (+/- 50 points). An actual bottom was put in place on December 26th at 21,713.

June 28, 2019June 29, 2019

Thank You Dear Leader Trump For Delivering Amazing Stock Market Returns (Weekly Update)

The apparent onslaught of positive news for the stock market continues unabated. Open any financial publication today and you will get an impression that the stock market is not only hitting new all time highs on the daily basis, it will soon be approaching the Moon’s orbit.

Even President Trump jumped into the Twitter ring to remind the mindless peasants under his management that the sudden spike was entirely because of his efforts. After all, apparently we are in the best economy in the history of humanity and that it was him who jawboned Mr. Powell into supposed interest rate cuts. Again, interest rate cuts for the best economy humanity has ever seen 😀 .

The reality, as always, is a little bit different. You see, there was a fairly powerful TIME turning point arriving on June 3rd. You can read about it here. The market promptly turned around on a dime and staged a fairly powerful bounce.

I say a bounce because the S&P finds itself just a few points above its January of 2018 top. That’s 18 months ago if you can’t count without using your smartphone. The Dow is below the same top while the NYA (largest index by capitalization) is not even remotly close.

How would you spin that Mr.Trump?

The devil, as they say, is always in the details. So, if you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here

This Week’s Journal consists of the following topics

June 21, 2019June 22, 2019

EVERYONE Agrees – The Stock Market Is Going Higher, Much Higher (Weekly Update)

And just like that the stock market finds itself at an all time high as unquenchable bullish sentiment sends bears into hibernation once again. No, we are not talking about January or October of 2018 highs, we are talking about today.

Well, not really, at least not yet. Out of all the major indices only the S&P finds itself at an all time high, but by a small margin. The Dow/Nasdaq are getting close to their respective highs, but no cake – just yet.

At the same time, we are seeing a number of incredibly important non-confirmations. For instance, the Dow Transports are nowhere near confirming the rally off of December lows, let alone a new bull market. The NYA is struggling and the Russell 2000, which typically leads the market in a bull cycle, is badly lagging.

Simply put, something is not right. If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here

This Week’s Journal consists of the following topics

June 14, 2019June 14, 2019

How We Predicted April’s High & June 3rd Bottom (Weekly Update)

If you recall, we delivered an exact hit on December 26th, 2018 bottom. While everyone was panicking our work projected an important bottom on December 27th (+/- 1 trading day) on the Dow at 21,725 (+/- 50 points). An actual bottom was put in place on December 26th at 21,713.

The stage was set for a rally/bounce and boy did the market do just that. Having said that, subsequent market action has proven to be much more difficult than originally anticipated. You see, our work was projecting an important TIME turning point in the beginning of February. The Dow did top out on February 6th, but that top was short lived.

It soon became apparent what was happening and we talked about it in our Premium Section for nearly two months. Most indices were compressing into their respective rising wedges – signaling an eventual demise of the rally. At the time we were looking at various charts, including these……

As we approached the termination phase of these wedges an important Time/Price point of force was coming on the Dow on April 21st (+/- 2 trading days). We theorized, at the time, that this would be the point that would end the rally/bounce. Sure enough, the Dow topped out on April 23rd and a fairly large scale sell-off followed.

During this sell-off the Dow put in an impressive bottom on May 13th. However, we were quick to dismiss this bottom because the Dow did not hit any time or price points of force. The next significant TIME turning point of interest was arriving on May 31st – Friday (+/- 2 trading days).

As we got closer two potential PRICE turning points were identified on the Dow. One at 24,870 and the other at 24,610 (+/- 50 points each). On Friday, May 31st the Dow sliced though the first point. That forced us to concentrate on the second point on Monday. The bottom was achieved on 24,681 or just 21 points outside of our window.

What happens next?

You don’t have to guess what the stock market will do next under today’s extreme conditions. If you would like to find out exactly what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here.

June 7, 2019June 7, 2019

Everyone Agrees – The Stock Market Is Going To The Moon (Weekly Update)

While most investors were freaking out at the end of last week, our service was looking for a bottom associated with an important TIME turning point of May 31st. To be more precise, we were looking for a bottom on either Friday or Monday. The Dow bottomed at 3:30 pm EST on Friday. We were looking at 2 potential turning points. One was located at 24,870 and the other at 24,610 (+/- 50 points) on the Dow. The actual bottom was hit at 24,681 or just 21 points outside of our window.

In last week’s update (see below) we insinuated that the market was getting ready to bounce. Now, the structure of the bounce hasn’t been ideal, but the sentiment did jump the shark once again. To put it mildly. Just take a look at the first set of headlines below.

Forget today’s bubble/fake economy and massive speculative bubbles associated with most asset classes, inverted yield curve and collapsing “real economy”. According to most, the stock market is going to the moon because the FED is ready to CUT, CUT, CUT. Perhaps they are right and perhaps they are spectacularly wrong. If you would like to find out exactly what the stock market will do next, based on our timing and mathematical work, please click on any of the links below.