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NASA Delivers

wise-galaxy-investwithalex

Forget the fact that NASA has to pay Comrade Putin to ferry our Astronauts into space.  It appears they are doing some real scientific work after all. NASA Finds Antarctic Ice Shelf a Few Years From Disintegration Unfortunately for all of us, more people care about what Kim Kardashian had for lunch than our unsustainable way of life.

But don’t feel too bad, NASA delivers again. Here is how insignificant all of our problems really are. NASA finds distant galaxy shining as bright as 300 trillion suns That’s cool….I wonder what brand of sunscreen is the biggest seller in that Galaxy….might be a good investment.

Finally and before we all melt away, financial advisers have added an additional regret to a now famous “regret list”. Top 6 Regrets of the Dying I wish I was kidding, but no, apparently you will regret not saving enough money for your retirement right before you take that last breath. What a sad state of affair to live exist in such a materialistic culture.

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NASA Delivers Google

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day

Some of Murphy’s Laws:

  1. If anything can go wrong, it will.
  2. Nothing is ever as simple as it seems.
  3. Everything takes longer than you expect.
  4. Left to themselves all things go from bad to worse.
  5. Nature always sides with the hidden flaw.
  6. Mother Nature is a bitch.
  7. It is impossible to make anything foolproof because fools are so ingenious.
  8. If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something.
  9. If you can keep your head when, all around you, others are losing theirs, you just don’t understand the situation.
  10. For every human problem, there is a neat, simple solution — and it is always wrong.

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day Google

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Bernanke Gives The Green Light To Short Stocks

CNBC Idiots

Do you ever wake up and ask yourself how you ended up on this rock they call Earth? Well, it’s one of those morning, at least for me. The amount of stupidity being peddled by the mainstream financial media is truly staggering. Let’s take a quick look at just two instances.

Bernanke sees no risk of hard landing in China, bullish on U.S. economy

If you are not paying attention, the Shanghai Composite is up close to 100% over the last 12 months and has recently went parabolic. Why? Must be China’s empty cities, money printing, massive off balance sheet debt, collapsing growth rate, day trading grandmothers and over 20K new trading accounts being opened each day.

But don’t worry, Mr. Bernanke has a perfect track record. Not only did he save us all in 2009, but he did clearly suggest that the US Economy is doing great and even overheating in Q-1 of 2008. According to the FED minutes. By that time the stock market had already completed 50% of its 2007-2009 decline. Perfection.

Obama says Russia adopting ‘increasingly aggressive posture’

Ummm, must I remind Mr. Obama that it is the US troops that are in Ukraine right now. That NATO has expanded all the way up to the Russian border and for no apparent reason. Well, unless their intention is to start a war. That everything the US touched over the last 15 years has turned to absolute shit (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Georgia, Egypt, Ukraine, etc…).

The only difference here is that Russia has the capability of striking back and is not bending over to NATO’s will. Western warmongers do not like that. Unfortunately, we will all pay for their stupidity.

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Bernanke Gives The Green Light To Short Stocks Google

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Bond Conundrum: Who Is Right?

Daily Chart May 26th InvestWithAlex

5/26/2015- A big down day with the Dow Jones down 190 point (-1.04%) and the Nasdaq down 57 points (-1.11%)

A massive and rather rapid stock market decline is coming later this year. And while we won’t have a crash, considering the amount of margin debt out there, quite a few people will get wiped out. If you would like to find out exactly when this move will develop, to the day, please Click Here. 

The bond market continues to defy expectations. So, who is right, bulls or bears?

Let’s take a closer look.

Some very smart bond investors are betting that yields will continue to decline. Why? Because the farce that is the US Economy today is about to blow sky high. The US Economy is rolling over into an “official” recession and it is just a matter of time before the FED cuts (if they have anything to cut) and/or introduces another round of QE. Plus, a bear market in yields in not yet over. You will probably find me in this camp. On the flip side….

As the theory goes, the bond market is about to go on a rampage as yields surge and stocks collapse. Legendary bond investor Bill Gross is not shy when it comes to supporting this view. Put me down for this one as well.

So, who is right? 

I believe both scenarios are correct. As a result, it becomes a matter of timing and sequencing. Here is what I believe will happen over the next 2-3 years. Based on my mathematical and timing work.

  1. The FED will raise interest rates just a few times this year before realizing that we are already in another recession.
  2. As soon as that happens they will cut back to zero and introduce QE-4.
  3. Yields will drop and the 10-Year Note will set a bear market bottom in yields.
  4. Thereafter, inflationary pressures will begin to appear in conjunctions with bond vigilantes and yields will surge higher. The bottom will be in (Bill Gross’s forecast).
  5. At this time the FED will be trapped and unable to do anything. Massive pain all around.

By the way, the stock market will decline either way.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 26th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Bond Conundrum: Who Is Right?  Google

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The FED Has No Idea

Remember that time when Cramer melted down? Screaming over and over again that “they (the FED) have no idea”. The video below might refresh your memory.

As erroneous as it may sound, Mr. Cramer is right. The FED has no idea. Not before and certainly not now. Case and point, Regulation should be main tool against bubbles: Fed’s Mester

I would opt to use the macroprudential tools as the first line of defense, since they can be more targeted to the markets and institutions where the risks are emerging.

Earth to the FED, we are already in a massive bubble. This is equivalent to a drug dealer telling an overdosed junkie who is 2 minutes away from a massive cardiac arrest that he shouldn’t be doing drugs.  I have said it before and I’ll say it again, anyone who believes the FED will bail this market out forever is playing with fire. It is the worst trade out there.

Now, if we had a bear who is just as passionate as Mr. Cramer, I am sure he would be screaming “They have no idea” right about now.

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The FED Has No Idea Google

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The Truth

It’s a breath of fresh air when someone actually speaks the truth. I highly encourage you to watch this video. The only remaining question is……when will all of this blow sky high??

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The Truth Google

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COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – May 23rd, 2015

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of May 19th, 2015

Currencies: 

  • USD:  4K Long Vs. 72K Short – Significant short interest remains.
  • Canadian Dollar: 39K Long Vs. 57K Short – Neutral -No change from last week.
  • British Pound: 84K Long Vs. 43K Short – Commercials decreased their long position – more neutral now. .
  • Japanese Yen: 81K Long Vs. 35K Short – Neutral – Slightly increased their long exposure.
  • Euro: 150K Long Vs. 29K Short – Significant long position.
  • Australian Dollar: 93K Long Vs. 35K Short- Significant long position.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while British Pound, Euro and Australian Dollar rally. 

Markets/Commodities/Volatility: 

  • E-Mini S&P 500: 187K Long Vs. 647K Short – Heavy short position remains.
  • VIX: 107K Long Vs. 19K Short – Heavy long position suggests market turbulence ahead.
  • Gold: 54K Long Vs. 118K Short – Significant increase in short interest. Gold might decline.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the stock market to decline as volatility surges higher. Gold might decline further.

Next Week’s Market Calendar: 

  • May 26 – Durable Goods

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COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – May 23rd, 2015Google

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Is This Market Bulletproof Or Drawing Its Last Breath?

Daily Chart May 22st InvestWithAlex

5/22/2015 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 54 points (-0.30%) and the Nasdaq down 1 point (-0.03%) 

A massive and rather rapid stock market decline is coming later this year. And while we won’t have a crash, considering the amount of margin debt out there, quite a few people will get wiped out. If you would like to find out exactly when this move will develop, to the day, please Click Here. 

A few things to get through before our long weekend starts. 

First, today’s stock market appears bulletproof. The US Economy is on a verge of an “official” recession (no matter what Janet Yellen says), macro data is collapsing, the FED is about to hike rates and the stock market is sitting in an overvaluation bubble. Yet, the market refuses to go down. For instance, just this week….

Manufacturing PMI – Miss/Drop. Existing Home Sales – Miss/Drop. Philly Fed – Miss/Drop. Economic Confidence – Miss/Drop

….and the stock market barely budged. This is either really good or really-really bad. David Stockman believes its latter: Stocks and bonds will ‘crash soon’

Stocks and bonds are on the verge of a catastrophic collapse. Everything is totally distorted and there is a day of reckoning coming down the pike.

While I would have to agree that everything is distorted, we WON’T have a crash here. That is not what my mathematical and timing work shows. There was a possibility of a market crash in October of 2014, but the market was able to push through. Yes, the market will go through a substantial 2 year bear leg in 2015-2017, but we will not have a rapid 20-30% decline/crash.

In fact, my work suggests that the market will drive both bulls and bears up the wall over the next two years. That is to say, we will be stuck in an environment where only the market timers will be able to make money.

Finally, bulls are hopeful that M&A activity will save this market. In a quiet stock market, whispers of an M&A wave Considering everything else, this is not a good sing. Corporate buybacks, M&A and foreign investors. All signs that the stock market is near a major top. Corporations are not different from individual investors. They tend to buy at the top and sell at the bottom. How many M&A were there at the bottom in 2008-2009? I rest my case.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 22nd, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is This Market Bulletproof Or Drawing Its Last Breath? Google

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The New “Normal” -OR- The Calm Before The Storm?

Charts below provide us with a fairly good summary of where we are today. 

  1. The NYSE (largest index by capitalization) hasn’t gone anywhere in 11 months. – Distribution of consolidation?
  2. The Dow hasn’t been in such a tight trading range in over 100 years. The Dow hasn’t done this in over 100 years: Technician – Of course, CNBC managed to put a positive spin on it – no surprise there.
  3. VIX/VXX are either collapsing to new lows or scratching the bottom of their trading ranges.

I have said it before and I will say it again. The market is compressing and getting ready for a massive move. And like a giant spring, it is accumulating energy. The only remaining questions are A. When will this move occur and B. In which direction??? If you would like to find that out, please Click Here   

NYSE Chart investwithalextrading range investwithalex

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The New “Normal” -OR- The Calm Before The Storm? Google