I love trains. I am not entirely sure why, but they fascinate me. A few days ago Japan’s maglev train set a new world record at 603 KMP or 373 MPH. Watch the amazing video of their attempt below. Meanwhile, Amtrak is expected to crack 100 mph by the year 2075.
Three yogis were eating their lunch on the seventeenth-floor girder of a new skyscraper. They were working on their bodies, talking about it continuously, discovering new mysteries. “Wow,” said the second man, who was new. “I see why you guys like to eat your lunch here. The view of the city is beautiful!”
“Yes, the view is nice,” said the first man. “But do you want to know why we really like to eat lunch here?” “Yes,” said the new yogi. “Well,” explained the first, “there’s the most incredible updraft right at the fourth floor, and when we finish lunch we like to jump off and ride back up on that air current. It puts you right back on the very spot you jumped from.”
“Bullshit!” said the second man. “I don’t believe you.”
“You don’t?” said the first, putting down his coffee thermos. “Then I’ll show you.” He jumped. Down he went, and sure enough, right at the fourth floor — whoosh! He was turned back and landed on the seventeenth-floor girder on the exact spot from which he had leaped.
“Wow!” said the second man in total amazement. “That beats the hell out of hanggliding or anything! Let me do it next!”
He stood up and jumped. Down he went — then fourth floor, third floor, second floor… splat! All over the sidewalk! Finished!
Back up on the seventeenth floor, the third man, who had been silent until now, turned to the first and said, “You know, Superman, sometimes you’re a real prick!”
Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff did not hold back in his Senate Budget Committee testimony, “The first point I want to get across is that our nation is broke. Our nation is broke, and it’s not broke in 75 years or 50 years or 25 years or 10 years. It’s broke today.” He goes on to point out…
And so on and so forth. You get the picture. The US will never be able to repay 25% of its obligations, let alone all of it. This leads to a few possible outcomes. An outright default, war and/or currency debasement/hyperinflation. I wonder which option the fools in our government will choose.
4/21/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 85 points (-0.47%) and the Nasdaq up 19 points (+0.39%)
Short sellers, repeat after me….
On a more serious note, once in the while the stock market does something so utterly stupid, it takes your breath away. What am I talking about? Today’s divergence between fundamental/macro data and the market’s bubble valuation levels. I wrote about it earlier Why The FED Has No Clue. Yet, despite this apparent ideal short trade setup, it’s not as easy as it sounds.
“How are you supposed to actively short stocks in this environment? It has been impossible,” Seattle-based Fleckenstein told Reuters.
His frustration is shared by others dedicated to betting on declines, if not for the broader market then for individual stocks that look overvalued. Outside of the hard-hit energy industry, most sectors have performed well over the last several months, and dedicated short funds have been stung.
The biggest take away from the article above is not that short sellers have been unable to make money, but rather, the fact even the best researched and most successful short sellers are afraid to enter this market on the short side.
Isn’t that bullish?
On the contrary. That suggests three things. First, everyone is already in. Just as they were at 2000 and 2007 tops. Second, the market has been distributing for close to 9 months. Finally, any upcoming bear leg is likely to be fast/violent. In other words, today’s short sellers should be grateful for the many amazing money making opportunities the market offers.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 21st, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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I have to admit something. This blog has been overwhelmingly bearish over the last few months. If for no other reason than my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market over the next few years. Click here to see when it starts. And while I would love to be a bull here, that would go against my entire body of work.
However, if you are a little girl and in need of a little “pick me up”, to feel all warm and fuzzy inside, I have just the thing for you. Watch the video below. As you can clearly see, despite bubble level valuations and multitude of divergences (macro Vs stocks), the stock market is about to surge higher. And don’t forget to buy on margin.
For well over a year I have maintained that any direct US/NATO troop involvement in Ukraine’s conflict would cross Russia’s “Red Line”. Well, we are there.
What happens next? Before we get to that, here is something you have to understand. Quite a few top level Russian generals see NATO’s troop presence in Ukraine as a direct declaration of war against Russia. And they want action.
Any junior level Pentagon analyst should realize that this will not go unanswered. Some sort of a escalation from the Russian side is likely. While I don’t think Putin is stupid enough to mount a direct attack, it is quite possible that “Pro-Russian” forces in Ukraine might stage an attack on the US troops with advanced weaponry supplied by Russia.
Here is the bottom line. Unless their primary goal is provocation of Russia, there is absolutely no need for the US troops to be in Ukraine. And by doing exactly that, the idiots in Washington have
For our purposes, keep a very close eye on Ukraine. Some sort of a response from Russia is coming. A response that might plunge the US equity markets and then plunge us all into an all out war. Stupidity at its best.
Will Russia Directly Attack The US Troops In Ukraine? Google
4/20/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 209 points (+1.17%) and the Nasdaq up 63 points (+1.27%)
I am starting to notice something curious. The overall US stock market has been, more or less, in a flat trading range since about July 17th, 2014. Or for 9 months. Yet, the speculative spirits are running as hot as ever. I am seeing the evidence of that everywhere as most people continue to “yap” about their highly speculative positions. And I am not the only one.
Market top conversations are back.
“One of our producers was out with some hipsters in Brooklyn, and these people were all talking about biotech stocks,” he says. “When you get that kind of chatter at that kind of level, it just makes me nervous.”
This is incredibly important as we have now come a full circle. March 6th, 2009 bottom was incredibly easy to predict and identify. We had a number of cycles and mathematical structures arriving at the same time. Yet, not a single person or hedge fund I gave this information to, acted on it. Why? Simple psychology. After a 55-70% drop in most equities, they were too terrified.
Now, the situation is reversed. After a 6 year bull market, no one can imagine a substantial decline. Even though most of the stocks are incredibly expensive and have disconnected from any sort of a fundamental/economic reality.
Don’t forget, it’s buy low – sell/short high, and NOT buy high – sell/short low.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 20th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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Because I highly doubt that you are smarter than John D. Rockeffeller. Let me tell you a cool story first.
The Dow set a secondary bottom in early May of 1924 and then went on a rampage bull market that terminated on September 3rd, 1929 (exact top). Thereafter, the Dow distributed for 6 weeks before initiating its crash sequence on October 24, 1929. By November 13th, 1929 the Dow was down 49%. A devastating collapse.
Now, I know what you are thinking. “People were kind of dumb back then. The market was clearly in a speculative bubble and even a monkey with half a brain could have seen the 1929 crash coming from a mile away”. WRONG. Human nature never changes. Case and point, I present to you probably the smartest and the wealthiest businessman who ever lived, Mr. John D. Rockeffeller (his net worth was over $200 Billion in today’s money).
October 30, 1929: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has one of its best days ever, rocketing up 29 points, or 12.3%, to 258 as John D. Rockefeller, Sr. announces: “There is nothing in the business situation to warrant the destruction of values that has taken place on the exchanges during the past week. My son and I have for some days been purchasing sound common stocks.” The Dow goes on to lose 84.1% more of its value before bottoming out on July 8, 1932.
I think his quote speaks for itself. Just as in 1929, 99.99% of people today are not aware of where we are. Back to 2015. I have already beaten the fundamental/economic/market horse and today’s stock market overvaluation/speculation levels to death. Both, in my daily blog and in my weekly updates. The only remaining question is, are you ready for a big market sell-off when it comes? If you would like to find out when that happens, please Click Here
