InvestWithAlex.com 

Subscribe Today
My Account

Category: Stock Market

Posted on

Shocking: The Same Price Buys You Either A 9 Bedroom Castle Or A 1 Br Apartment

Daily Chart April 10 2015

4/10/2015 – Another positive day with the Dow Jones up 99 points (+0.55%) and the Nasdaq up 21 points (+0.43%). 

The market continues to behave as forecasted. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.  A lot of stuff to to cover this Friday.

First, here is a question……for the same amount of money, would you buy a 9 Br Castle in France or a 1 Br crappy apartment with no balcony in Sydney?  

Don’t for a second think that I have forgotten about our persisting Real Estate bubble. Nothing new on that front. The dead cat bounce off of 2010-2011 bottom is now over, the market is rolling over and it will accelerate down over the next 5 years. Most likely in conjunction with the upcoming recession and a bear market in equities. Our friend MISH has a jaw dropping post on 10 French Castles that are Cheaper than Sydney Units. Check it out. 

 Second, Einhorn Says Too Much Easy Money Is Holding Back U.S. Economy

Greenlight Capital’s Einhorn makes his point by discussing the pros and cons of jelly donuts. “My point is that you can have too much of a good thing and overdoses are destructive. Chairman Bernanke is presently force-feeding us what seems like the 36th Jelly Donut of easy money and wondering why it isn’t giving us energy or making us feel better. Instead of a robust recovery, the economy continues to be sluggish. Last year, when asked why his measures weren’t working, he suggested it was “bad luck.”

The problem is, the damage has already been done and it is now impossible to avoid the consequences. In this case, the consequences being a severe bear market in equities and a deep recession within the US Economy. Current weakness and collapsing economic variables, despite zero interest rates and a massive liquidity infusion, is a clear evidence of that.

Finally, Dimon, now Summers: There’s a liquidity problem

Both Dimon and Summers believe there might be a liquidity problem in the bond market. An issue that concerns both of them very much. I am beginning to hear anecdotal evidence that is the case within the stock market as well. While my positions are not large enough to trigger liquidity concerns, some of the bigger guys out there are starting to have problems liquidating their postions.

Or so I hear.  In terms of press, Crispin Odey of Odey Asset Management talks about just that in The Secret Behind This Hedge Fund Manager’s Market Collapse Prediction. That is to say, should the market start a significant decline, we might see liquidity vanish overnight. We saw a little bit of that in October of 2014. Point being, if/when things get ugly, they will get ugly fast.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 10th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Shocking: The Same Price Buys You Either A 9 Bedroom Castle Or 1 Bedroom Apartment Google

Posted on

As World Indices Surge: Bubble Or Not?

hong kong stock makret

The US equity markets aside, you would be hard pressed to find a stock index that is not up this year. Asian markets (Nikkei and Hang Seng) are up 14%, U.K.’s FTSE is up 6%, Germany’s DAX is up 24% and Russia’s RTS is up 27%.

We then hear anecdotal accounts of Chinese housewives speculating in the stock market on margin and Hong Kong’s Exchange CEO suggesting that investors should not worry or panic. The margin debt is through the roof, particularly in Asia, and as the chart above suggests, we are now experiencing “Panic Buying” on some of the indices. Just as we have experienced on Nasdaq in early 2000.

Bubble or not…….what is going on? 

The only legitimate rally we have is in the Russian market. It was destroyed last year and as I have suggested so many times before, it is dirt cheap. As far as I am concerned it is the most undervalued market in the world.

All other rallies are incredibly speculative, driven by their respective central banks, QE, and competitive currency debasements. Will the rallies continue? Unlikely. When their respective tops are reached, most likely in a spectacular blow off fashion, most will follow the US to the downside (when the US bear market starts). And just as fast as they have came up. Beware.

Z31

As World Indices Surge: Bubble Or Not?  Google

Posted on

Good Luck Finding Something To Invest In

Daily Chart April 9 20154/09/2015 –  A positive day with the Dow Jones up 56 points (+0.31%) and the Nasdaq up 24 points (+0.48%).

The stock market continues to behave as forecasted. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here.

I continue on with my relentless drive to suggest that today’s market environment is about as close to 2000 and 2007 tops as one can get.  And just as back then, very few people are listening or paying attention. Today’s analysis deals with the lack of investment opportunities. (take a look at the article….it is worth 2 minutes of your time).

Managers say they haven’t changed, the market has. The easy money climate of near-zero interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve has artificially inflated prices of lower-quality U.S. stocks, they say, punishing those who focus on businesses with the best fundamentals. At the same time, the relentless climb of prices across equity markets has left them with few chances to sniff out bargains or show what they can do in more-volatile times.

“In straight-up markets you don’t need active managers,” D’Alelio said in a telephone interview. “If the next five years are the same, there won’t be any active managers left.”

Not only do I agree and sympathize with the sentiment above, I find myself in the same boat. There is nothing to invest in. Now, pay attention. I didn’t say to “speculate in”, I have said “to invest in”.

Proper investing demands initial undervaluation in growth or value as a starting point. With most stock being excessively overvalued, finding a reasonably priced investment opportunity at this juncture is just about as tough as finding Hillary Clinton’s lost emails.

At least at 2000 top most of the money flowed into technology and there were a multitude of cheap and unknown investment opportunities laying by the way side. That is not the case today. Everything, and I mean everything has been driven up to excessive levels. We all know how this ends.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 24th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Good Luck Finding Something To Invest In Google

Posted on

Stockman and El-Erian: Delusional Or Smart?

z31As yours truly, David Stockman and Mohamed El-Erian continue to warn their followers that a big stock market decline and a severe recession are coming down the pipeline.

David Stockman: 

  • “The worldwide central bank money printing spree of the last two decades has generated massive excess capacity and mal-investment all around the planet.”
  • “What is coming, therefore, is not their father’s inflationary spiral, but an unprecedented and epochal global deflation.”
  • “So the central banks just keep printing, thereby inflating the asset bubbles worldwide. What ultimately stops today’s new style central bank credit cycle, therefore, is bursting financial bubbles. That has already happened twice this century. A third proof of the case looks to be just around the corner.”

Mohamed El-Erian: 

  • Financial markets have grown addicted to central bank easing, and that addiction could cause a heap of trouble when central banks tighten the credit spigot.
  • “It reminds me a little bit of 2007 and 2008,” when investors tried to discern when the turn would come away from easy credit conditions, El-Erian said. “I’m not so confident that I will see the turn coming, and turns tend to happen quite quickly.”

I couldn’t agree more. The only remaining question is…….are the US Equity markets currently going through a 9 month distribution or consolidation period? If distribution, the time to pay the piper may be soon at hand.

Z30

Stockman and El-Erian: Delusional Or Smart? Google

Posted on

Why The FED Will Be Powerless To Stop An Upcoming Bear Market

Daily Chart April 8 2015

4/8/2015- A positive day with the Dow Jones up 27 points (+0.15%) and the Nasdaq up 40 points (+0.83%). 

As far as I am concerned there is only one thing, and one thing only, that is holding this market together. The FED and investors blind faith in the fact that the FED will be able to stop any and all market corrections. Either through QE, interest rates or by simply making statements to the press. So much so that every single bottom over the last couple of months can be attributed to the FED talk.  El-Erian tends to agree. Danger, Danger — ‘Market Is in Love With Central Bank Trade’

Here are the 3 reasons as to why this “herd mentality trade” will blow up in investors faces.

  1. The Fed is a Reactionary Force: If we study the past, the FED has always been late to react to any and all market developments. For instance, Bernanke was talking about the accelerating US Economy as late as Q1 of 2008. They have no clue and there is no reason to believe that this time will be any different.
  2. The Market Will Decline Anyway: My mathematical and timing work makes it very clear. Over the short-term the market is independent of all fundamental inputs. That is to say, the market will top out on a certain date in 2015 and initiate its decline. No matter what the FED does or say. That day is approaching fast.
  3. Investors Will Lose Confidence In The FED: This is unavoidable. As soon as the FED is unable to backstop the next decline, most investors will lose confidence in a millisecond.  That in itself will accelerate the decline

The main take away from the points above is as follows. The FED trade will be in place until it is not.  The problems is, by the time most investors realize this fact, it will already be too late. By the time the analysis above becomes a reality, the stock market will already be down 10-25%.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 8th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Why The FED Will Be Powerless To Stop An Upcoming Bear Market Google

Posted on

Another Idiotic Advice From Jim Cramer

IBB2The chart of (IBB) is from March 20th. One can easily argue that Biotech is the most overpriced and highly speculative sector within the overall stock market structure today. That doesn’t bother Jim Cramer — If You’re Not in Biotech for the Long Haul, Hit the Road  I’ll give him one thing, Mr. Cramer has perfect timing for identifying the worst investments out there.

Here is what I said about Biotech on March 20th, the day it arguable topped out. Did Biotech (IBB) Top Out TODAY?

The Nasdaq hit an Intraday high of 5,132 on March 10th, 2000, then promptly turned around and proceeded to collapse 80%. Is it possible that the Biotech Index (IBB) did the same thing exactly 15 years later?

Not only is it possible, it is highly probable. Back in 2000 it was Pets.com and NortelNetworks. Today, it is hundreds of impressive sounding “Genome” Biotech names that have

  • A few Ph.D’s on their payroll.
  • An impressive idea.
  • A white paper on how their new generation drug will change the world and make Trillions….a  paper that maybe 10 people on this Earth can fully understand.
  • No way in hell of making a cent or getting their drug to the market.
  • A whole bunch of stupid investors that believe they will get rich.

Make no mistake, Biotech is an a giant bubble that will pop. And it’s not only Biotech. We are witnessing the same thing in the Silicon Valley’s “Mark Cuban” illiquidity bubble and even on the Nasdaq. Alibaba deal values Snapchat at $15 billion Do I really need to say anything when an app with no revenue is valued at $15 Billion by a company that is in its own spectacular overvaluation bubble? I hope note.

Anyway, why do I believe we might have hit the top in Biotech (IBB) today? Today’s blow off (gap) open and some of my other work within the sector.  That is to say, don’t be surprised if we get a massive sell-off in Biotech over the next few months.

Z31

Another Idiotic Advice From Jim Cramer  Google

Posted on

The Secret Behind This Hedge Fund Manager’s Market Collapse Prediction

crispin odey

I firmly believe that the only people investors should be listening to right about now are the people who got 2000 and 2007 meltdowns right. Everyone else is just blowing smoke. Crispin Odey, the founder of London-based Odey Asset Management, is one of those people. He does not hold back….

“I just think that you and I have got grandstand seats here [to an imminent market shock] and my point is having found myself in the second quarter of last year selling a lot of equities and starting to go short, I found out just how illiquid it all was. You never actually see it until people try and get out of these things.”

That’s quite a powerful statement and I wholeheartedly agree.  A lot of gold in this The Sydney Morning Herald article and it is definitely worth 5 minutes of your time.  He goes on to say…

“For me, what I find very interesting is given the risk of recession, how is it the West stock market can be hitting all-time highs? History tends to be not very generous in this regard. If you get a recession in a low inflation environment it tends to impact the ratings of stocks dramatically. It was akin to “watching the markets take drunken bow after drunken bow. It’s amazing that nobody else is on the same page.”

The upcoming recession and the approaching stock market meltdown are so easy to see, I am not sure why the 99% go on missing it. The attitude was exactly the same at 2000 and 2007 tops. Greed or stupidity? I am not sure, but it is amazing indeed.

Z30

The Secret Behind This Hedge Fund Manager’s Market Collapse Prediction  Google