InvestWithAlex.com 

Subscribe Today
My Account

Category: Stock Market

Posted on

Is It Time To Short Janet Yellen & The FED?

Daily Chart AMarch 18th

3/18/2015 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 227 points (+1.27%) and the Nasdaq up 45 points (+0.92%)

If you recall, in the last two weeks of February the market barely moved. And towards the end of February I suggested that this period of low volatility is coming to an end. Boy, did it ever. After the market topped out on March 2nd, the Dow has delivered close to 2,500 points in short-term market swings. That’s pretty impressive!!!

What happens next?

Today’s market rally was obviously FED induced. What did they say? Blah, blah, blah…….blah, blah. Literally. The FED wanted flexibility, to raise or not to raise, and that is precisely what their statement entails. Nothing more or less. In the final analysis, the talking heads can now spend another month dissecting every word in their never ending quest to find meaning.

In terms of the stock market, the bulls are large and in charge. Or so it appears. The stock market played out exactly as one of our scenarios suggested (subscriber section). And while the bulls feel vindicated, I wouldn’t get too excited just yet. The volatility we have experienced over the last few weeks is here to stay and the bulls might very quickly find themselves on the other side of the FED’s stupidity.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 17th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is It Time To Short Janet Yellen & The FED? Google

Posted on

The Shocking Secret Behind The Stock Market

stock market DNAHere is the best explanation I came across when I first started research into my mathematical and timing work. After more than a decade of development work behind me, I can attest that the statement below is 100% accurate.

“Markets being, at minimum, a three-dimensional phenomena, exactly like a large molecule rotating in space, in and out of Z plane, with DNA coding sequences governing the entire process. Without understanding the market is 3-D, twisting like a plant governed by the phyllotactic laws of dual number series and harmonic composition and decomposition, all measurements taken on a 2-D chart become misleading” – Dr. B.

Z30

The Shocking Secret Behind The Stock Market  Google

Posted on

Investment Wisdom Of The Day

tudor jones“Were you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt. After a while size means nothing. It gets back to whether you’re making 100% rate of return on $10,000 or $100 million dollars. It doesn’t make any difference.” – Paul Tudor Jones

z33

Investment Wisdom Of The Day  Google

Posted on

Will The Fed Forgo Raising Interest Rates?

subprime car loans

Quite a few bears think that they should or that they will. I believe that they should, but I don’t think that they will forgo the eventual rate hike.

“In my view, the Fed will not increase interest rates this year,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” pointing to dollar strength and recent disappointing economic data. “The economy simply [is] not taking off, so I don’t see there will be an interest rate increase.” – Mark Faber

“The U.S. economy is sicker than ever,” said Schiff. “And the Fed is going to launch QE4 for the same reason they launched QE3, 2 and 1. They’re going to try to stimulate the economy. Now that they stopped QE, the air is coming out of this bubble.”

And according to Schiff, if the Fed does raise interest rates later this year, the outcome will be catastrophic. “I think without QE4, we will be back in recession,” he said. “It’s going to be horrible. There’s going to be a worse financial crisis than 2008.”

I agree with the views above. The underlying US Economy is sick and on the verge of recession. With that in mind, the bears above are forgetting two things. First, the FED needs to re-load on their recession fighting tools before the next one hits (we are almost there). And second, the FED is a reactionary force. Meaning, it has always been behind the ball in terms of reacting to various economic developments. I don’t think that will change now.

z33

Will The Fed Forgo Raising Interest Rates? Google

Posted on

These Charts Will Scare The Bejeezus Out Of You

Daily Chart AMarch 17th

3/17/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 129 points (-0.72%) and the Nasdaq up 8 points (+0.16%)

Let’s take a look at some charts in order to come to a very simple conclusion.

Two weeks ago I talked about the chart below. Suggesting that the majority of the stocks haven’t gone anywhere since about June 16th, 2014. You can see even more evidence of that here  A hidden bear market in Dow threatens all stocks

NYSE

Not only that. Various macroeconomic indicators have collapsed while earnings multiples continue to expand. Plus, corporates are starting to guide lower. That is to say, something has got to give.

Macrodata

Finally, the GDP Growth consensus is starting to collapse. So much so that if it wasn’t for the QE and zero interest rates, the US Economy would already be in a full out recession (or worse).

GPD Consensus

Given all of the above, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out what happens next. Surprisingly enough, 99% of investors out there don’t see it.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 17th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

These Charts Will Scare The Bejeezus Out Of You Google

Posted on

Why Dollar Strength Suggests Upcoming Turbulence

dollar surge

A little over 3 years ago, some swanky EU supermodels were refusing payment in the US Dollars. Today, you would be hard pressed to find a single person who is not bullish on the greenback. This worries me and here is why.

We are in an incredibly complex macro economic situation. The debt levels are massive, almost every country is trying to devalue/monetize their currency, there are numerous asset bubbles and the FED is trying to re-load their toolbox before the next recession starts (just around the corner now).

In other words, people are panicking into the dollar at exactly the wrong time. As the chart above illustrates, almost every financial disaster has been preceded by such a run up. Followed by a multi-year decline. Finally, the commercials are heavily shorting the dollar at this stage. We talk about all of that and what to expect next in our latest weekly podcast. Click Here to listen.

z32

Why Dollar Strength Suggests Upcoming Turbulence   Google

Posted on

Yet Another Hedge Fund Manager Warns About Imminent Bear Market

bull-vs-bear1

With the mainstream financial media being overwhelmingly bullish, I make it my mission to bring you as much bearish news as possible. For one simple reason. My mathematical and timing work suggests that a bear market of 2015-2017 is about to kick in. Andy Redleaf, CEO of $4.2 billion hedge fund manager Whitebox Advisors, sees the same thing.

  • “I think it is a truly scary time,”
  • “We do not know exactly where all the credit creation of this cycle has gone. Certainly money sits idly as excess reserves, but just as certainly money that would not exist but for unconventional monetary policy has distorted prices and resource allocation,”
  • “There are some parallels with the collapse in home prices which preceded the financial crisis,”
  • “It strikes me as completely plausible that a further decline in the euro triggers a recession in the U.S.,” Redleaf wrote. “The U.S. has a bear market, high-yield spreads move to 1998 type levels (1,000-1,200 [basis points]), U.S. weakness and market tightening of credit probably make the recession global.”

And so on and so forth. I think you get the picture. It is easy to look back today and say that anyone with an ounce of intelligence could have seen the 2000 and 2007 tops coming. Yet, very few people did. Why? For the very same reasons most people today refuse to believe that yet another bear market is possible. Greed, following the crowd, perpetuating today’s market condition and, quite frankly, stupidity.

Z31

Yet Another Hedge Fund Manager Warns About Imminent Bear Market Google

Posted on

How Low Will An Upcoming Bear Market Go?

Daily Chart AMarch 16th

3/16/2015 – A strong up day with the Dow Jones up  228 points (+1.29%) and the Nasdaq up 58 points (+1.19%). 

Jim Stack was fortunate enough to pick the 2009 bottom. Now, the president of InvesTech Research, which is on the Hulbert Financial Digest’s Honor Roll of top newsletters over the past 15 years, and Stack Financial Management, which manages more than $1 billion of investors’ money, believes we are on the verge of a bear market.

Here is what concerns him.

  • Rising interest rates,” he explained, “can provide significant headwinds to a bull market,” which he calls “one of the more interest-rate-sensitive bull markets in our lifetime.”
  • Margin debt has peaked and begun to fall. “Past peaks in margin debt have led or coincided with the start of past bear markets,” he wrote in InvesTech Research.
  • Professional investors are extremely bullish, with bearish sentiment under 14%, “the fewest bears since 1987, just before the crash,” he told me.
  • Corporate profits topped out more than a year ago, but S&P 500 earnings per share continued to rise until recently. That discrepancy is often an early-warning sign.
  • Although the S&P 500’s current multiple of 19.9 times earnings is slightly below the average when interest rates are below 3%, that will make stocks especially vulnerable when rates do rise. And the median U.S. company trades at its highest valuation of the past 65 years, according to the noted finance scholar Kenneth French of Dartmouth College.

Nothing that I haven’t covered here before, but it nice to hear the same thing from somebody else.  The question is, if a bear market does start, how low will it go? Jim suggests the following

A more likely outcome, he said, was for the S&P 500 to retrace about half of its bull market gains. If March 2 was the peak, that would mean it could fall to around 1,400, roughly a 35% decline.

I would say that is a fairly good estimate. And as I have suggested before and despite the fact that I am bearish, I don’t anticipate the markets to collapse as they did in 2007-2009. That was a mid-cycle panic. The upcoming decline will be more reminiscent of 2000-2002 decline on the Dow. Still, it wouldn’t make sense to be long here.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 16th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

How Low Will An Upcoming Bear Market Go? Google

Posted on

6 Reasons Why The US Stock Market Is NOT The Place To Be

what

Business Insider recently had a story on why the US stock market is the place to be.  6 reasons why the US stock market is still the place to be  Let’s take a look. My comments are in red.

  1. US economic growth, as measured by GDP, has outpaced other G10 economies since the end of the recession and is forecast to keep doing so, as the chart below shows.  So what, just because we outpaced everyone, doesn’t mean we can’t have a bear market here. 
  2. US companies have been more likely to meet their forecasts for earnings growth than other developed countries over the past several years. Again, who cares, doesn’t mean we can’t have a bear market. 
  3. US stocks have more exposure to faster-growing sectors like technology and health care. Yep, and the above sectors are in a massive overvaluation/speculation bubble. 
  4. Higher US yields support higher valuations for stocks. You kidding….right? 
  5. Price-to-earnings ratios tend to move in tandem with the dollar, and will climb if the dollar rally continues. Two things here. First, this utter nonsense. There is no long-term evidence to support this statement. And even if it was true, the dollar is about to reverse. As discussed in our weekly podcast. 
  6. Adjusting for sector mix, US stocks are not expensive versus the rest of the world. The US stock market is massively overpriced and on par, if not worse, than 2000 and 2007 tops. I have shown the evidence of that here over the last few months. 

In short, the points above is how the majority of money managers and investors out there think today. Unfortunately, their arguments hold very little water. A bear market here would make just as much sense, in not more, as the continuation of today’s bull market.

z32

6 Reasons Why The US Stock Market Is NOT The Place To Be Google