Investment Wisdom Of The Day Google
No Bears Left & Recent Trade Summary
12/18/2014 – A big up day with the Dow Jones up 421 points (+2.43%) and the Nasdaq up 104 points (+2.24%).
The stock market continues to perform as forecasted. Now that the trade is over, it is important that I mention it here. My subscribers knew in November that a top of the previous move on the Dow would occur at 18,000 (+/- 50 points). With 17,990 being the exact hit. The actual top was at 17,991. We went short on December 8th at QQQ $104.25 and equivalent……. after a technical confirmation was obtained.
A bottom was anticipated on December 16th in both price and time and we covered at QQQ $101.75 and equivalent. Right after reversal confirmation. For a net gain of 2.5% in 7 trading days. Not bad. If this kind of work interests you and if you would like to find out what happens next…..please Click Here
In the meantime and as per chart below, there are no bears left. Long-term, I don’t think I have to explain to anyone what what that means. 
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 18th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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Why The FED Is Irrelevant
12/17/2014 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 288 points (+1.69%) and the Nasdaq up 96 points (+2.11%)
People tend to analyze and over analyze every word of the FED statement as if it was a new addition to the Old Testament. Trading aside, take a step back and consider the following when it comes to the FED.
First, the Fed is a reactionary force. Just like the rest of us, they “buy at the top and sell at the bottom”. Bernanke’s minutes in Q1 of 2008 that the enconomy was overheating is a clear indication of that. They cannot see market and economic turbulence if it hit them in the face.
Second, the FED wants “normalized” or higher interest rates as soon as possible. They clearly understand that they need to raise rates in time for the next recession. It has been close to 5 years since the last recession ended and they know the next one is not that far behind. Should they fail to raise rates, they will have very little ammunition (outside of another round of QE) to fight the next decline. That is to say, they will raise rates in 2015
Finally, when you put the facts above together you realize the FED will raise interest rates right into a bear market of 2014-2017. No matter what and just as they have done every single time in the past. Even though they shouldn’t. With that in mind, right about now would be a good time to get out of the stock market.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 18th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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What Is The Single Best Investment One Can Make Today – Today’s Podcast
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Investment Grin Of The Day
Is The Market About To Bounce?
Now that the Dow is down close to 930 points over the last 7 trading days, let’s take a look at the bullish side of the argument. I have two articles for you to consider.
- Why Wall Street’s oldest market timing system is bullish
-
The stock market is not even close to topping out
First, take the articles above with a grain of salt. The timing system in question is the Dow Theory. Sure, the theory above is not confirming this bear market, but it is too slow for my taste. Well, at least half the system is not confirming this down move. The Dow Transportation Index is suggesting that a bear market is here.
Further, most market participants continue to believe that we are now in a secular bull market that has another 10 years or so to run. Most market consensus readings suggest that to be the case. Yet, as I have suggested so many times before, we still in a secular bear market that will only terminate in 2017. The last 2-3 years are always down. For instance, 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1980-1982. Unfortunately, there is no way to avoid it.
With that in mind, no market moves straight up and down. A healthy bounce here would be welcomed. Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to make sure that you don’t mistake this bounce for the next bull leg up.
Subprime Short Bets Big Against Junk Bonds…..Should You Follow.
12/16/2014 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 112 points (-0.65%) and the Nasdaq down 57 points (-1.24%)
Since about the start of this year I have maintained that when a bear market of 2014-2017 kicks in, a number of things will happen. Junk bonds will blow sky high, 10-Year Note will test 1.5% (double bottom) and the stock market will drift lower. Driving both bulls and bears up the wall in the process.
Joshua Birnbaum, the Ex-Goldman trader who correctly shorted subprime mortgages during the financial crisis tends to agree.
Joshua Birnbaum, the ex-Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trader who made bets against subprime mortgages during the financial crisis, now has more than $2 billion in wagers against high-yield bonds at his Tilden Park Capital Management LP hedge-fund firm, according to investor documents
I believe he is absolute right in his assessment. The situation is not that dissimilar from 2007-2009 period. Except, instead of “subprime” bubble we are currently going though a stock market overvaluation and junk debt bubble. There is just way too much risk in our financial system to warrant today’s valuation levels. Once the tide goes out, you will see junk yields surge. Counterparty risk associated with collapse of Russia (discussed earlier this morning) might get this party going.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 16th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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Subprime Short Bets Big Against Junk Bonds…..Should You Follow. Google
What Is Your Overall Stock Market Forecast For 2015? – Daily Podcast
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Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Bloodbath In Russia. Will It Spill Over?
Last night Russia announced a surprise emergency rate hike to 17%. It didn’t help. Oil continues to slide, Ruble collapsed and the Russian stock market tanked 13%. And while the Obama Administration is high fiving their Saudi counterparts for the time being, the situation is now out of everyone’s control. The markets have taken over and we don’t know how far they will take it. This is reminiscent of the 1998 financial crisis.
We do not yet know the counterparty risk associated with this oil and Russian collapse. Are there hedge funds out there that just got blown up? Will Russian corporations begin defaulting on their massive loans? Will that snowball throughout worldwide capital markets? Will this devastate US Shale Oil industry? When will this tidal wave hit the US markets? Is it already happening?
That is to say, there are more questions than answer. Yet, rest assured, this stunt that the Obama administration pulled will have severe negative consequences on the US Economy and capital markets. They just haven’t manifested ……..quite yet.