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How You Could Have Made Millions With Apple.

AAPL2Continuation from yesterday…..For our purposes, we must now ascertain if it would have been possible to predict this meteoric rise and take position in the stock around 2002-2003 from the fundamental perspective alone.

The short answer is NO.

While an analyst working with Apple back in 2002 could have predicted the popularity of iPods and the success of iTunes (in theory), it would have been impossible to anticipate future blockbusters.  No technology futurist at the time could have predicted the iPhone, the Apps Store or the iPad. It is not even clear if such products existed in Steve Jobs’s mind as far back as 2002-2003. And even if someone was able to predict the appearance of such products, it would have been impossible to predict if the market would have accepted them or not. The technology field is littered with dead products that were way ahead of their time.

The best any fundamental investor could do in the 2002-2003 time frame is as follows…

  1. Analyze Apple’s rapidly growing iPod business and determine that iPod’s sales cycle and its popularity is just starting.  That it would be a massive hit for Apple over the next few years. It would be an educated guess, but it would be better than nothing.
  2. Assume that Steve Jobs and Apple will continue to introduce revolutionary products (similar to iPod) over the next few years.  That could have been ascertained from studying Steve Jobs and understanding his drive for innovation. Still, it would have been a hit or a miss proposition. Just because Steve Jobs introduces a new product doesn’t mean it will be a huge success. He did have a number of large failures throughout his career.

Which bring us to the decision making time based on the fundamental analysis alone. Apple was not a clear cut case. The economy was in the dumps, the technology sector was devastated by the burst of the tech bubble and while Apple did have a hit product, it was not necessarily evident.  Plus, with the iPhone introduction being 5 years away, the best any investor could do at the time was to add Apple’s stock to his or her well diversified portfolio.  In hopes that the tech sector will recover and that Apple’s iPod business will continue to drive the company forward.  Yet, no one could have predicted that Apple would go up 3,700% over the next decade based on the fundamental factors alone.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Since the fundamental analysis did not necessarily yield a strong buy signal for Apple in our 2002-2003 time frame, we must now concentrate on the technical side of the equation to see if we would have had better luck there.

As you can see from the chart above, Apple’s stock price collapsed in conjunction with the Nasdaq in the fiscal 2000. Going from $20 a share to $2 a share in a matter of nine months.  Thereafter, the stock price remained, more or less, within a tight $1.80 to $3.60 trading range for two and a half years.  That is until the April of 2003.

What happened in April? Apple’s stock price bottomed at around $1.85 a share and then started its massive multiyear rally. What else happened around the same time? The Dow set a clearly defined secondary bottom in its bear market of 2000-2003 and started its 5-year bull market of 2002-2007. Essentially, Apple’s stock price bottomed at exactly the same time as the stock market. This transfers the burden of the rest of our technical analysis to our timing and mathematical work.

To Be Continued On Monday…..

z32

How You Could Have Made Millions With Apple.  Google

Shocking: Scary Mathematical Formula Predicts The Start Of Nuclear World War 3

confused guy

Continuation from yesterday…..Fortunately or unfortunately, I was able to figure out the exact time frame associated with the World War 3. By accident I might add. This chapter of the book will explore the WHEN portion of the equation. We will study the exact War Cycle associated with all of the major wars throughout the American history in order to ascertain exactly when the Nuclear World War 3 will start.  

I first became aware of the subject matter at hand during my research and analysis of future stock market cycles. As described in the previous chapter. After years of work with such cycles and getting a fairly good understanding of how the stock market works (giving me the ability to predict the market with incredible accuracy), I came across something that puzzled me. When I got into the early 2030′s something crazy happened.

After a strong multi-year run up due to inflation (not fundamentals), the stock market proceeded to collapse to the tune of 90-95% within a 2-4 week period of time. At first, I thought that I might have gotten some of my calculations wrong, but after some verification my original work was indeed confirmed. That brought out an incredibly important question.

What can collapse the Dow Jones 90-95% within a four week period of time?

I knew that it had to be something big. Such drops are unprecedented in the history of the stock market. As a matter of fact, it had never happened before. Even the 1929-1932 collapse of 90% took over 3 years to play out. So, what in the world could cause such a massive meltdown?

Sure, a natural catastrophe, an earthquake, a giant tidal wave, maybe a meteor strike, etc….are all a possibility. However, we are not talking about a specific region. We are talking about the entire stock market which represents every corner of Americana as a whole.  Some sort of a war is always a possibility, but for the market to collapse to such an extent and so rapidly, it would have to be a nuclear war.

Is that even possible in today’s world?

I had to find an answer and so began my research into the subject matter. Using the same cyclical analysis I use for my stock market work, it wasn’t long before I found the answer I was seeking. What I found shocked me to the core. The nuclear war is indeed coming. It will be fought between 2029-2032 and it will literally destroy the world and impact every human being on the face of the Earth, one way or another.  What I find fascinating is that today’s macroeconomic and geopolitical developments are already lining up for what is to come.

To Be Continued On Monday (Why Do You See This On A Financial Website?)

Z30

Google

Daily Stock Market Update. July 10th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart July 10 2014

A down day with the Dow Jones down 70 points (-0.42%) and the Nasdaq down 23 points (-0.52%).

The stock market continues to perform exactly as per our internal forecasts. The market opened with a huge 150 point down gap, only to recover most of the drop by the end of the day. Confusing the Bejusus out of both the bulls and the bears in the process. Not us. 

In the meantime, Marc Faber continues to hit at the market, predicting a massive and a fast moving correction. And while CNBC Talking Head Fools suggested that Marc is no longer credible, Mr. Faber does have a good point. He compared today’s market to Brazil Vs. Germany game, where most networks had to repeat and assure their audiences that the score at half time was really 5:0. Something so unimaginable that NO ONE in the world thought that it would be possible.

Marc suggests, and I tend to agree, that one day soon you will have double and triple check your stock tape. In other words, in the very near future the market will shave off 20%+ off today’s valuation levels in a matter of days. And that will be just the start. Point being, don’t find yourself cheering for a losing team.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 10th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Daily Stock Market Update. July 10th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google

How ‘Bout Them Apples. (10 Bagger Book, Part 8)

AAPLContinuation of AAPL (Part 2)….The company was selling at $2 a share in 2002 for a few reasons. After growing at a brisk pace between 1997 and 2000 the company’s overall sales collapsed 33% percent in the fiscal 2001. Delivering a net loss of $25 Million in the process. This was the company’s first loss since 1997. Yet, there was nothing malicious behind the revenue drop. The US economy and the tech sector in particular were going through a major readjustment at the time. As the worldwide economy came to screeching halt and the Nasdaq collapsed, so did sales at Apple.

To summarize, by 2002 Apple was just another computer company, although with a cult like following, that was trying to survive during an economic downturn.  With the Nasdaq down 80%, cut throat competition and no “must have” products,  the future looked anything but certain. Hence the $2.00 a share stock price.

Yet, as was suggested above, things were about to improve for Apple.  In conjunction with iPods starting to become incredibly popular, Apple introduced iTunes in 2003. As a result, in fiscal 2003 alone, iPod sales grew 141% from $143 Million to $345 Million. While this number was still less than 6% of the overall revenue, it gave investors a preview of what was to come. By the end of fiscal 2006 the company was generating $7.6 Billion in iPod sales and $1.9 Billion in iTunes sales. Representing staggering growth and accounting for 50% of Apple’s $19.3 Billion revenue base at the time.

While impressive, Apple was just getting started. Steve Jobs followed iPod’s incredible success by launching iPhone in 2007, Apps Store in 2008 and iPad in 2010. The rest, as they say, is history. By the end of fiscal 2013 Apple was generating $171 Billion in sales,  with the following products generating the bulk of the revenue.

Net Sales by Product 2013:

  • iPhone  $ 91.2 Billion
  • iPad  $32 Billion
  • Mac  $21.5 Billion
  • iPod  $4.4 Billion
  • iTunes, software and services $ 16 Billion
  • Accessories $5 Billion

The best way to look at Apple’s success over the last 12 years is as follows.  While Apple’s existing Mac line grew on its own accord, Steve Jobs was able to create $143 Billion in additional revenue out of thin air by creating/introducing revolutionary new products such as iPod, iTunes, iPhone and iPad.

For our purposes,  we must ascertain if it would have been possible to predict this meteoric rise and take position in the stock around 2002-2003 from the fundamental perspective alone.

The short answer is NO.

To Be Continued Tomorrow……

z33

How ‘Bout Them Apples. Google

When Will Nuclear World War 3 Start (Chapter 3,Part 1)

predicting the future investwithalex

Chapter 3: When Will The War Start

I first became aware of this information around 2008 and I thought long and hard ever since then if I should publish it. After all, nothing good is likely to come out of letting people know about the upcoming war. In the best case scenario, I will be ridiculed.  In the worst, well, maybe I will get a visit from the men in black.  Yet, after some careful consideration I have figured that if this information saves just one life and/or one family, it is worth it.

Report Summary: I plan to spend the 2029-2040 time frame at my beach house on one of the islands somewhere in the South Pacific as the

  • Coalition of NATO Members and
  • Russia/China Alliance

…..NUKE each other back to the stone age. 

Now, before you assume that I am sort of a doomsdayer seeking to build some sort of a cult following, understand something very important. I am a very well to do and generally very happy. I do not have any interest in the doom and gloom and I am only reporting what my work indicates.  In fact, I make it a point to tell people not to follow me.  I have learned a long time ago that I cannot change violent human nature not the future. As such, I ask people not to contact me or seek further guidance in regards to this prediction.  Simply be aware that this is coming down the pipeline and decide what plan of action is best for your family and yourself.

The Bible calls this period Armageddon, graphically describing its aftermath in the Book of Revelation.  The Mayans, Nostradamus, Edgar Casey and many other clairvoyants throughout human history had pointed to “Our Time” as the time of this “Final & Devastating War”. The end of one age and the beginning of the next.  Some clearly discussing submarines, planes and even the Internet at the time of this “Great Tribulation”.  Hundreds of years ago. What’s scary is that most of such predictions tend to be  eerily similar.  Here is one of my favorite ones.

Then shall there come unto man the great warfare
that shall make the Earth tremble and shake in its course.
Aye, then shall the Dark Brothers
open the warfare between Light and the night.

When man again shall conquer the ocean and fly
in the air on wings like the birds;
when he has learned to harness the lightning,
then shall the time of warfare begin.
Great shall the battle be twixt the forces,
great the warfare of darkness and Light.

Nation shall rise against nation
using the dark forces to shatter the Earth.
Weapons of force shall wipe out the Earth-man
until half of the races of men shall be gone.
Then shall come forth the Sons of the Morning
and give their edict to the children of men, saying:
O men, cease from thy striving against thy brother.
Only thus can ye come to the Light.

Cease from thy unbelief, O my brother,
and follow the path and know ye are right.

Then shall men cease from their striving,
brother against brother and father against son.

While the passage above could be attributed to WW2 when it comes to timing, two things stand out. First, 50% of Earth’s population did not vanish in WW2 and the weapons described are likely to be the nuclear weapons that will be used in WW3. In addition, before humanity can shift into the age/cycle of peace and prosperity a certain war must be fought.  A war so terrible and so devastating, that men will tremble at a thought of ever again lifting a finger against his fellow human beings.

To Be Continued Tomorrow…….. (Why are you seeing this post on a financial site?)

Z30

When Will Nuclear World War 3 (Chapter 3,Part 1) Google

Daily Stock Market Update. July 8th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart June 9 2014An up day with the Dow Jones up 79 points (+0.47%) and the Nasdaq up 27 points (+0.63%) 

 Quite an interesting day, full of contradictions. 

So, let me get this straight. The yield curve is flattening, the FED is tightening and even Janet Yellen now thinks that the market is out of sync with reality. Yet, the market keeps going higher (developing as per our internal forecasts). Yet, you have fools predicting the DOW 20,000 by the end of the year. I think the most accurate representation of today’s market environment would be imagining a lit fuse disappearing into a 40ft container load full of TNT.

I have said it before and I will say it again. As the market continues to be stuck in a very tight trading range (since the beginning of this year), it continues to accumulate energy. When this energy is finally released, there will be hell to pay. Literally. In other words, investors who ignore this warning will pay dearly, just as they did in 2007.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 9th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Daily Stock Market Update. July 8th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google

How ‘Bout Them Apples. (10 Bagger Book, Part 7)

apple products

Continuation of part 6….

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

Apple’s story cannot be told without first concentrating on its founder and the driving force behind the company, Steve Jobs. As you probably know, Steve Jobs was forced out of Apple in 1985, only to return as Apple’s CEO in 1997. It was at that point that “Chapter 2” in Apple’s history began.  Steve was able to bring the company back from its near death experience by introducing a number of popular PC’s, cutting costs and by securing a large investment from Microsoft.  Immediate after his return Apple’s stock price started to surge, appreciating close to 1,000% by March of 2000 (A Tenbagger in 2.5 years). Then, the Nasdaq crashed and so did Apple’s stock price. Going from $20 a share to $2 a share in a matter of 9 months.

To establish a clear picture of what had happened over the last 12 years we must first study the fundamental growth of the company between 2002 and today.

Key Statistics 2002(December 31, 2002) 2014 (July 8th,2014)
Price Per Share $2.00 $95.00
Market Cap $15.5 Billion $575 Billion
Earnings Per Share $0.026 $5.96
P/E Ratio 77 16
Price/Sales Ratio 2.72 3.27
Price/Book Ratio 2.94 4.8
Revenue $5.7 Billion $ 176 Billion
Net Income $65 Million $38 Billion
Annual Earnings Growth 7%(revenue) 9.2% (fiscal 2013)
Total Cash $415,000 $41 Billion
Total Debt $4.3 Billion $17 Billion
Book Value Per Share $0.68 $20.5
Shares Outstanding 6 Billion (split adjusted) 6 Billion
Total Assets $6.2 Billion $207 Billion
Shareholder Equity $4.1 Billion $123 Billion

As we analyze the data above, one thing jumps out at us immediately. Apple’s fundamental growth has been as impressive over the last 11-12 years as its stock price growth. During this period of time revenue grew by 3,733%, earnings per share increased by 22,846%, book value grew by 2,914% and shareholders equity jumped by 2,900%. More than justifying the rise in the stock price.

We must now go back to the 2001-2002 period in order to determine why the company was selling at such a discounted level and what fundamental changes would occur to propel the stock price higher.

While it might be hard to believe, back in 2002 about 80% of Apple’s revenue was generated through the sales of their Macintosh, PowerBook, iMac and iBook products.  And while they were already selling iPod’s (introduced in 2001), this revolutionary product hasn’t even began to gain traction yet.  In simple terms,  Apple was just another PC company in the midst of a massive Nasdaq/technology bubble bust. Yet, the company was already giving us a hint of what was to come.

From their 2002 Annual Report: The company believes that personal computing has entered a new era in which the personal computer functions for both professionals and consumers as the digital hub for advanced new digital devices such as digital music players, personal digital assistants, cellular phones, digital still and movie cameras, CD and DVD players, and other electronic devices.   

To Be Continued Tomorrow……

z32

How ‘Bout Them Apples. (10 Bagger Book, Part 7) Google

The Shocking Truth Behind Predicting Nuclear World War 3 (Chapter 1,Part 3)

cycles of time investwithalex

Continuation of Part 2…..It is important to note that the small variation (of +/- 1 year) in duration of these cycles is caused by smaller or larger cycles arriving at the same time.  Please note, the stock market is an incredibly complex entity that requires much further explanation. If you would be interested in learning how the stock market works behind the scenes I would highly recommend my other book Timed Value for your consideration.

The main point I want you to understand very clearly here is this.  Based on the cycles above we are no longer working in an arbitrary fashion when it comes to predicting the future. If movements in the financial markets can be predicted with precision of a surgeon over a 100 years period of time,  the same type of analysis can be applied towards predicting wars. In other words, if the stock market repeats a clearly defined 17-18 year Bull/Bear cycle over a 220 year period of time (since 1790) and does so without interruption,  it is safe to assume that the future is cyclical/predictable and not random.

THE 5 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET

One  other easily identifiable cycle within the stock market is the 5 year cycle. The 5 year cycles tends to represent one completed growth pattern or one completed Bull or Bear cycle. They tend to appear for 5 years, disappear and then reappear at a certain point in the future. While they are not as sequential as the 17-18 year cycle above, once their place within the overall stock market is understood, they show up at exactly the right time.

  • 1914 -1920: Bull Market
  • 1924-1929: Bull Market (followed by a 1929 crash)
  • 1932-1937: Bull Market (followed by a 1937 crash)
  • 1937-1942: Bear Market
  • 1966-1971: Bear Market
  • 1982-1987: Bull Market (followed by a 1987 crash)
  • 1994-2000: Bull Market (followed by a 2000 crash)
  • 2002-2007: Bull Market (followed by a 2007 crash)
  • 2009-2014: Bull Market

One thing to understand about these 5 Year cycles is that they are exact. They have much lower level variance as compared to their longer counterparts. Essentially, we are NOT talking about 5 years +/- 6 months. We are talking about 5 years +/- a few days. For instance, the 2002-2007 cycle started on October 10th, 2002 (at 2002 bottom) and terminated on October 11th, 2007. If you are counting, that is exactly 5 Years and 1 day.  In other words, scary accurate. I encourage you to study the other cycles outlined above in order to prove to yourself how shockingly accurate they all are.

CONCLUSION:  

It is my hope that I have proven to you, without a shadow of a doubt, that the TIME cycles I talk about are real. If the stock market,  a supposed volatile and unpredictable entity, moves in accordance to clearly defined TIME cycles, so does everything else. As everything else in nature and our 3-Dimensional architecture, time becomes cyclical. Giving us the ability to predict nuclear World War 3 with stunning accuracy.  And that is exactly what we will be doing in the next chapter. We will look at the major war cycle to help us ascertain exactly when this war will start.

To Be Continued Tomorrow…...(Why Are You Seeing This On A Financial Website?)

Z30

The Shocking Truth Behind Predicting Nuclear World War 3 (Chapter 1,Part 3) Google

Daily Stock Market Update. July 8th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart July 8 2014

Another down day with the Dow Jones down 118 points (-0.69%) and the Nasdaq down 60 points (-1.35%) 

The stock market continues to develop as per our exact forecasts. Click Here  If you follow traditional financial media, you head should be spinning right about now. Where they have tried to explain last week’s rally with proposed/anticipated double digit earnings growth and baked in Dow 20,000, this week’s sell off is attributed to Concern Over ‘Severe’ Pullback Sends U.S. Stocks Lower  So, which one is it?   One thing is for sure, trying to explain any sort of market action after the fact is a fools game.

Luckily for you, I don’t play that game. Simply put, the stock market is in the process of building a complex top before a massive bear market begins. In the meantime, the market will continue to oscillate up and down, without as much as going anywhere and driving everyone insane. When will this sideways market end? When will the market top out and when will the bear market start? While I wish I could post this information here, I cannot.

I can tell you one thing. Getting out at the top in 2014 would be equivalent to getting out at the top in 1987, 2000, 2007, etc…

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 8th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Daily Stock Market Update. July 8th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google

How ‘Bout Them Apples. (10 Bagger Book, Part 6)

AAPL

Company Name:  Apple, Inc Stock Symbol:  AAPL Industry:  Technology/PC
Percent Appreciation:  3,700% Number of Bags:  37 Holding Period:  11 Years
Entry Date & Price:  May, 2003 @$2.50 share Exit Date & Price: Current ($95/share) Original Investment($10,000): $370,000

Company Description:  Apple Inc. and its wholly-owned subsidiaries design, manufacture, and market mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players worldwide. It also sells software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications related to its products. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones that comprise a phone, music player, and Internet device; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets based on Apple’s iOS Multi-Touch operating system; Mac, a line of desktop and portable personal computers; and iPod, a line of portable digital music and media players, such as iPod touch, iPod nano, iPod shuffle, and iPod classic.

Quick Trading Overview & Objective: Apple’s ups and downs over the last three decades are very well known and it would be impossible to account for all of its trading/investing history in this short overview. For our purposes, we will concentrate on Apple’s latest stock rally initiating in April of 2003. At that time, Apple’s stock set a multi years low of $1.87 a share. A low unseen since 1982. It was at that juncture that the stock proceeded to bottom  and then kick off a massive multi-year rally of 3,700% (as of 7/8/2014 @$95).

We will now go back in time and take an in depth look at the company in order to determine if we could have taken a long position at that time. More importantly, we will look at Apple’s fundamental/trading patterns over the last 11-12 years to ascertain if we would have been able to maintain our position over an entire period.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

Apple’s story cannot be told without first concentrating on its founder and the driving force behind the company, Steve Jobs. As you probably know, Steve Jobs was forced out of Apple in 1985, only to return as Apple’s CEO in 1997. It was at that point that “Chapter 2” in Apple’s history began.  Steve was able to bring the company back from its near death experience by introducing a number of popular PC’s, cutting costs and securing a large investment from Microsoft.  Immediate after his return Apple’s stock price started to surge, appreciating close to 1,000%,  by March of 2000(A Tenbagger in 2.5 years) . Then, the Nasdaq crashed and so did Apple’s stock price. Going from $20 a share to $2 a share in a matter of 9 months.

To be continued tomorrow…..  

z33

How ‘Bout Them Apples. (10 Bagger Book, Part 6) Google