2/13/2019- A positive day with the Dow Jones up 117 points (+0.46%) and the Nasdaq up 5 points (+0.08%) 

The stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

Yes, you have read it right, record 7 million Americans are 90+ days behind on their car payments.

• Subprime Arrives: Auto-Loan Delinquencies Spike to Great Recession Levels

“A development that is surprising during a strong economy and labor market”: New York Fed

Serious auto-loan delinquencies – loans that are 90 days or more past due – surged to 4.47% of total auto loan balances in Q4 2018, according to New York Fed data this morning. This put the auto-loan delinquency rate at the highest level since Q1 2012 and just 0.6 percentage points below the peak during the Great Recession in Q1 2011.

But, but, but……..

2/12/2019 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 372 points (+1.49%) and the Nasdaq is up 106 points (+1.46%) 

The stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

President Trump continues to claim that he has created the best economy this great land has seen, since, well, ever. Let’s take a closer look at some stunning data points….

• Most Americans “just one serious illness away from bankruptcy.”

The study, led by Dr. David Himmelstein, Distinguished Professor at the City University of New York’s (CUNY) Hunter College and Lecturer at Harvard Medical School, indicates that about 530,000 families each year are financially ruined by medical bills and sicknesses. It’s the first research of its kind to link medical expenses and bankruptcy since the passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010.

• Household Debt Up 18 Consecutive Quarters to a New Record, Card Stress Rising

2/11/2019 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 53 points (-0.21%) and the Nasdaq up 9 points (+0.13%)

The stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

Despite rapid disintegration of our society, everything appears to be coming up roses. At least according to some folks……

Americans’ Confidence in Their Finances Keeps Growing

Please notice something of significant importance from the chart above. Today’s “optimism” is nearly identical to the optimism displayed at 1987, 2000 and 2007 tops. Hmm, makes you wonder……

America’s misguided optimism doesn’t stop there. President Trump was quick to jump on the following headline…..

Our forecast for Mr. Trump is somewhat different. Shocking Forecast Reveals Why President Trump Will Lose 2020 Re-Election Bid

Most importantly, the US Dollar and the bond market are not buying this “New Found” happiness.

Why the dollar is back on the rise despite the Fed’s dovish turn

A closely followed dollar index recorded its biggest percentage gain in six months, as the currency’s status as a haven appears to be trumping the Federal Reserve’s dovish tilt.

The question investors should be asking themselves is who is right…..Trump’s Twitter Account or two of the most sophisticated financial markets in the world.

Luckily, you don’t have to guess what the stock market will do next under such extreme conditions. If you would like to find out exactly what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here.

Please Note: Our latest call was a direct hit. While everyone was panicking our work projected an important bottom on December 27th (+/- 1 trading day) on the Dow at 21,725 (+/- 50 points). An actual bottom was put in place on December 26th at 21,713.

We Couldn’t Possibly Agree More

President Starts a War? Congress Yawns. Threatens to End One? Condemnation!

Last week’s bipartisan Senate vote to rebuke President Trump for his decision to remove troops from Syria and Afghanistan unfortunately tells us a lot about what is wrong with Washington, DC. While the two parties loudly bicker about minor issues, when it comes to matters like endless wars overseas they enthusiastically join together. With few exceptions, Republicans and Democrats lined up to admonish the president for even suggesting that it’s time for US troops to come home from Afghanistan and Syria.The amendment, proposed by the Senate Majority Leader and passed overwhelmingly by both parties, warns that a “precipitous withdrawal of United States forces from the on-going fight…in Syria and Afghanistan, could allow terrorists to regroup.” As one opponent of the amendment correctly pointed out, a withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan is hardly “precipitous” since they’ve been there for nearly 18 years! And with al-Qaeda and ISIS largely defeated in Syria a withdrawal from that country would hardly be “precipitous” after almost five years of unauthorized US military action.

Senators supporting the rebuke claim that US troops cannot leave until every last ISIS fighter is killed or captured. This is obviously a false argument. Al-Qaeda and ISIS did not emerge in Iraq because US troops left the country – they emerged because the US was in the country in the first place. Where was al-Qaeda in Iraq before the 2003 US invasion the neocons lied us into? There weren’t any.

US troops occupying Iraqi territory was, however, a huge incentive for Iraqis to join a resistance movement. Similarly, US intervention in Syria beginning under the Obama Administration contributed to the growth of terrorist groups in that country.

We know that US invasion and occupation provides the best recruiting tools for terrorists, including suicide terrorists. So how does it make sense that keeping troops in these countries in any way contributes to the elimination of terrorism? As to the “vacuum” created in Syria when US troops pull out, how about allowing the government of Syria to take care of the problem? After all, it’s their country and they’ve been fighting ISIS and al-Qaeda since the US helped launch the “regime change” in 2011. Despite what you might hear in the US mainstream media, it’s Syria along with its allies that has done most of the fighting against these groups and it makes no sense that they would allow them to return.

Congress has the Constitutional responsibility and obligation to declare war, but this has been ignored for decades. The president bombs far-off lands and even sends troops to fight in and occupy foreign territory and Congress doesn’t say a word. But if a president dares seek to end a war suddenly the sleeping Congressional giant awakens!

I’ve spent many years opposing Executive branch over-reach in matters where the president has no Constitutional authority, but when it comes to decisions on where to deploy or re-deploy troops once in battle it is clear that the Constitution grants that authority to the commander-in-chief. The real question we need to ask is why is Congress so quick to anger when the president finally seeks to end the longest war in US history?

A positive week with the Dow Jones up 43 points (+0.17%) and the Nasdaq up 35 points (+0.48%) 

The stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

A lot of interesting information to process as we push into the weekend.

Fed’s QE Unwind Reaches $434 Billion, Remains on “Autopilot”

The Fed shed $32 billion in assets in January, according to the Fed’s balance sheet for the week ended February 6, released this afternoon. This reduced the assets on its balance sheet to $4,026 billion, the lowest since January 2014. Since the beginning of this “balance sheet normalization,” the Fed has now shed $434 billion.

In other words, the stock market and investors should pay attention to what the FED does, not what it says. Meanwhile, middle America is getting their own taste of MAGA…..

Trade War Causing Severe Pain As Farm Bankruptcies Surge Way Past The Level From The Last Recession

Farmers all across the middle part of the country are going bankrupt at an astounding rate, and over half of all farms in America are now losing money.  The trade war with China has been the most devastating crisis to hit the U.S. farming community in decades, and at this point there is no end in sight.  Farm after farm is being financially wiped out, and we haven’t seen this kind of economic pain for farmers since the Great Depression of the 1930s.  In fact, it is being reported that bankruptcies in the key farming regions of the country are way above the level that we witnessed during the last recession.

Something tells me that is not what they have voted for Donald. Meanwhile, risk ON is back with the vengeance……

Super-Junk Leads the 2019 Asset Revival

The stock market is unlikely to crack until speculation in junk bonds gets blown out of the water.

The high-yield index hit record highs on Powell’s dovish Fed outlook. The lowest-rated debt has led the charge with 6% returns this year.

The loonies in Washington continue on with their drive towards Nuclear World War 3.

PCR: Venezuela Is An Opportunity For Russia And China To Change The World

Nothing better illustrates Washington’s opposition to democracy and self-determination than the blatantly public coup Washington has organized against the properly elected president of Venezuela.

Washington has been trying to overthrow the Venezuelan government for years. Washington wants the state owned oil company to be privatized so that it can fall into the hands of US oil companies. That would ensure Washington’s control over Venezuela. Transferring the wealth out of the country would prevent any economic development from inside the country. Every aspect of the economy would end up in the hands of US corporations. The exploitation would be ruthless and brutal.

And finally, bullish sentiment levels are back to their pre sell-off levels.

• How a ‘Fed put’ could leave stock market on path for a ‘late-90s-style meltup’
• The stock market dip? Keep buying, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch

To summarize all of the above, we currently find ourselves in a very complex environment where both bulls and bears can argue their respective “crash” or “meltup” scenarios with conviction.

That is why it is so important to dismiss fundamental data that people think drive the stock market and instead concentrate entirely on mathematical work that actually does. What it yields over the next few months, at least according to our work, will shock both bulls and bears to their core.

Luckily, you don’t have to guess what the stock market will do next under such extreme conditions. If you would like to find out exactly what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here.

Please Note: Our latest call was a direct hit. While everyone was panicking our work projected an important bottom on December 27th (+/- 1 trading day) on the Dow at 21,725 (+/- 50 points). An actual bottom was put in place on December 26th at 21,713.