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Daily Stock Market Update. June 12th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart June 12 2014

A substantial down day with the Dow Jones down 109 points (-0.65%) and the Nasdaq down 34 points (-0.79%). 

The Dow started the day with a small gap. That is in addition to a large gap on June 11. Both will have to be closed before any sustained downside can develop. Suggesting an upcoming bounce.

Buy the dip mentality continues to be well entrenched as most market pundits continue to suggest that investor use this slide as a buying opportunity. Given today’s technical setup/trend I would agree with them on most occasions……but not today. Buying at today’s levels will lead to a lot of pain and suffering for anyone who dares to do just that. It might not be tomorrow, but rest assured that it’s coming soon.

This is further confirmed by my mathematical and timing work. Again, my work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 12th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

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Daily Stock Market Update. June 12th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day

george-soros-investwithalex“Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend and step off before it is discredited.” ~ George Soros

z33

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Warning: Bullish Sentiment Pushing Extreme Levels.

bulls vs bears investwithalex

I might be beating a dead horse here, but I keep hearing that there are just too many bears out there for this market to fall. While it’s a good investment thesis, the reality is quite different.

According to the Lindsey Group’s Peter Boockvar, bullish sentiment is at levels even higher than they were in December 2013, October 2007 and August 1987, and we all know how that ended. Using data from a survey conducted by Investors Intelligence, Boockvar says the number of bulls exceeds the number of bears by a near record margin. “Bulls are now just .3 [points] from a record high in December ’04 and compares with 61.6 in December ’13, 62.0 in October ’07 and 60.8 in August ’87,” Boockvar wrote in a morning note.

And there you have it. Every single time we have been here before, a huge sell off followed. While these sentiment readings are great at ascertaining where we are in the overall composition of the stock market, they are very poor at predicting timing.

Luckily for you, timing is my specialty.  My mathematical and timing work is very clear in this. It shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE

z32

Warning: Bullish Sentiment Pushing Extreme Levels.  Google

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US Suffers A Stunning Defeat In Iraq. Al Qaida About To Take Baghdad

american humvee

After a decade long war, hundreds of billions of dollars wasted, tens of thousands of American causalities (killed or wounded) and close to a million civilian deaths……the Iraq war is now lost.  Well, that is unless the US wants to re-invade again. Iraq Sunni militant group vows to march on Baghdad 

The outcome?

Al Quaida is ridding in style in American Humvees, stealing over $400 Million of the US taxpayers money (so far) and taking over American made weapons. Iraq is now 10 times worst than it was under Sadam and Syria/Iraq are now failed states run by nutcases and terrorist who will use it to stage future terror attacks on the US. What’s worst, this was predicted by a number of people even before the war started, yet ignored by Washington and the military industrial complex. Give it a few years and you will see this happen in Afghanistan as well.

Perhaps it’s time for the American people to start asking some serious questions and stop threatening every other nation with either sanctions or force. Than again, I think the American Idol is on tonight….so maybe next week.

Z30

US Suffers A Stunning Defeat In Iraq. Al Qaida About To Take Baghdad  Google

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Daily Stock Market Update. June 11th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart June 11 2014

A down day with the Dow Jones down 102 points (-0.60%) and the Nasdaq down 6 points (-0.14%) 

Most indices opened up with a gap down, suggesting a near term bounce. With that said, don’t get too complacent here. The massive bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner. Make no mistake about it.

I keep hearing two lines of thought. One suggesting that this bull market is in a dangerous territory” followed by a big BUT “there are just too many bears out there”.

Well, I think it dangerous to suggest that the market is in a “dangerous territory”. A more accurate description would be comparing today’s stock market and valuation levels to a “40ft container full of TNT with a lit fuse disappearing inside of it”.

In terms of “too many bears” the chart below speaks for itself. Most bears have been squeezed to death as the fear/bearish index falls below 2007/2000 levels. I wonder what happens next?

Fear Index

This is further confirmed by my mathematical and timing work. Again, my work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning which way it will break and when, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 11th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Daily Stock Market Update. June 11th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com  Google

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Goldman Sachs Is Done With Building Out Their Short Position. You Know What Happens Next.

Oh Oh…….Did Goldman Sachs just complete their stock distribution (to retail investors) while building out a massive short position? Sure sounds that way. You know what happens next. 

Z31

Goldman Sachs Is Done With Building Out Their Short Position. You Know What Happens Next.  Google

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What You Ought To Know About Today’s Massive Financial Bubble

A few days ago I have talked about Uber, their massive VC round at $18 Billion valuation level and what that means. Yesterday, the fools at The New York Times have argued…. “Why Uber Might Well Be Worth $18 Billion”

Think about the basic math. There are a lot of numbers floating around about the global revenue for taxis, but here are the basics: In the United States, the taxi business generates $11 billion annually, according to IBISWorld.

In big cities like New York and London, The Financial Times reports that the average person spends $238 a year on taxis. If you extrapolate that Uber could one day control a quarter of the current global taxi market, the investment would turn out to be a home run. The business is currently in 128 cities in 37 countries and says it is doubling its revenue every six months. (TechCrunch reported Uber’s revenue last year was $213 million on more than $1 billion of bookings; Uber takes a 20 percent cut of all driver’s receipts.)

This is the basic rationale of all start ups and idiot investors who believe them. “If we only get 2% of the market we will make a Trillion Dollars”. Unfortunately, I have never seen this pipe in the sky dream come to a fruition. So, why is Uber, a company with $213 Million in revenue and net losses is valued at more than Hertz Global Holdings Inc, Best Buy Co, Alcoa or another 250 companies on the S&P 500 index?  

Let me tell you why. Because we are in a massive financial and speculative bubble reminiscent of the 2000 and 2007 tops.Venture Capital and the stock market tend to sync up for the most part and the excesses (or absolute insanity) you are seeing in terms of Uber valuation levels are the direct result of the massive bubble in the stock market. Let’s just not pretend or hope, we all know what happens next.

Z30

What You Ought To Know About Today’s Massive Financial Bubble Google

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The Shocking Real Reason Behind The American School Shootings

School Shooting

Shockingly, there have been 74 shootings in American schools over the last 1.5 years (1 per week). To say that American schools have become battle zones would be a massive understatement. Since this doesn’t happen anywhere else in the world and since I wasn’t born nor brainwashed in the US, here are my two cents.

I moved to the US when I was 15 years old and immediately dropped into an American high school. It was a culture shock. Here is what I think is causing the shootings.

  • Most American High/Middle Schools Are Subpar Cattle Ranches/Prisons: I didn’t go to a bad high school. On the contrary, it was ranked as one of the better schools in my city/district, yet coming from a different country I felt as if I was dropped into a prison. The level of education simply sucked. In many cases I knew more than my teachers did. More importantly, 98% of the teachers didn’t give a shit about any of their students and the students didn’t give a shit about any of their teachers. There was an absolute disconnect between the parties. Any and all interactions were on the surface. Basically, it was a place to unload the kids, for whatever worthless purpose, for about 8 hours a day.
  • Disintegration Of American Society: Instead of blaming guns, musicians, etc….people should wake up and blame the parents. “Oh, I didn’t know my little Johny was crazy”….. BS, someone needs to start prosecuting the parents. In the America we live in today only two things count (for most people). 1. Money and 2. Image/Ego.  As opposed to providing a stable and a loving home environment most American parents work 24/7 so they can keep up with the Joneses, be able to afford 2 massive SUVs and a 5,000 sqft overpriced McMansion. And I am not even talking about the 50% divorce rate. At the end of the day, a lot of American parents are in it for themselves as they become completely disconnected from their kids.

Unfortunately, the wrong priorities associated with greed and achievement/image in America is what is causing all of these shootings. And while many will disagree, this is my view as an outsider going through the American school system.

z32

The Shocking Real Reason Behind The American School Shootings Google

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Daily Stock Market Update. June 10th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com

daily chart June 10 2014

A slight up day with the Dow Jones up 3 points (0.02%) and the Nasdaq up 2 points (0.04%).

Since it is more exciting to watch the paint dry than it is to watch today’s market, allow me to re-examine the 5-Year Cycle and what it predicts.

As I have mentioned so many times before, there is a prominent 5 Year stock market cycle that oscillates between the bull and the bear markets. While the cycle does show up as a bear cycle at various points, for the most part this cycle is more clearly identifiable during the bull stage. Let’s take a quick look. More importantly, let’s see what does this cycle can tell us about the future. (We are looking at the DOW)

  1. 1982-1987 From 1982 bear market bottom to pre crash 1987 the cycle lasted exactly 263 week and moved up 1977 points. That is exactly 5 Years + 10 trading days.
  2. 1994-2000 From 1994 bottom on 11/23/1994 to 01/14/2000 the market advanced 8296 points in exactly 1298 trading days. So, this cycle lasted 5 Years +32 trading days.
  3. 2002-2007 From 2002 bottom  on 10/10/2002 to 10/11/2007 top the market advanced 7209 points in exactly 1259 trading days or EXACTLY 5 years.
  4. 2009-2014  From 2009 bottom on 03/06/2009 to 2014.

AMAZING, isn’t it? I mean we are talking about exact hits. Bottom to top. If you go back and study the market before 1982 you will find the same cycle showing up again and again. The slight deviation by a few trading days at the end of each cycle is caused by other cycles arriving around the same time. Just by knowing this one 5 year cycle you can predict what the market will do and beat 95% of the pros.

Now, let me warn you. This cycle is not as easy as just timing the 5 year period of time. There is something behind the scenes that causes this cycle to happen. As of right now, I cannot discuss what causes this in the public forum, but the chart below doesn’t lie. Just more proof that the market can be predicted to the day.

Dow Jones Long Term Chart

This is further confirmed by my mathematical and timing work. Again, my work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning which way it will break and when, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 10th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Daily Stock Market Update. June 10th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google

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Does The Russell 2000 Suggests An Upcoming Collapse?

russell 2000 head and shoulder

About a week ago I talked about a possible Head & Shoulders pattern developing on the Nasdaq. While that pattern is somewhat in question, the Russell 2000 is now building its own. The last time it happened back in 2010 the Russell collapsed 27%.

But the technicals may be signaling a huge drop ahead, according to Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson. “I don’t like the small caps,” said Ross, a “Talking Numbers” contributor. “I’m a seller of the Russell 2000. In fact, full disclosure, I’m short the Russell in my personal account.”

The main question here is…… are the Dow & the S&P leading the market higher or are the Nasdaq & the Russell 2000 showing the early warning signs for what is to come in the overall market?

Over the last few months I have covered extensively why the stock market is approaching a top from both the fundamental/technical and the mathematical/timing fronts. It just might very well be that the more speculative indices will lead all markets lower. To start the bear market of 2014-2017.  One thing is for sure, I would watch the Russell 2000 very carefully. If the Head & Shoulders develops as anticipates it would spell the impeding doom for the overall market.

Z31

Does The Russell 2000 Suggests An Upcoming Collapse?  Google