Right on the ball and we couldn’t agree more. Selling or shorting (SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB)) real estate right now is a much better idea.
Daily Stock Market Update. June 4th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com
An up day with the Dow Jones up 15 points (+0.09%) and the Nasdaq up 18 points (+0.41%).
Since the market continues to flat line, let’s take a quick look at index divergences and their meaning. While most major indices are up for the year (S&P +4.3%, Nasdaq +1.8%, Dow +0.9%), this doesn’t tell the whole story.
While the S&P and the Dow have re-confirmed their bullish trends, the Nasdaq has failed to do so. Just a matter of time? Maybe or maybe the Nasdaq is the leading indicator in this bearish setup. As I have mentioned a few days ago, the Nasdaq is likely in a process of building the right shoulder of a fairly large Head-And-Shoulders trading pattern. Making the Nasdaq the most important index to watch over the next few months. Assuming that you would like to get it right.
This is further confirmed by my mathematical and timing work. Again, my work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning which way it will break and when, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 4th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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What Happens When Blackstone Starts Dumping Real Estate At Market? Part II
Just a quick revisit.
As far as I am concerned, Blackstone has lost it’s way and should fire their entire real estate division. Why? Watch the video above. Their investment thesis in real estate is very simple. 1. The bottom is in. 2. There is a massive housing shortage. 3. Real estate prices will continue to rise. That sounds great, except for one thing, it’s a bunch of BS that can easily be discredited.
Now, remember, while these guys have been somewhat correct thus far by being one of the largest real estate buyers/investors in the nation, the market hasn’t spoken yet. All they have done is bought a huge amount of illiquid real estate that they will be unable to unload when a bear market in real estate prices resumes. As often is the case, one minute you are a financial genius and a half an hour later you are a retarded idiot (after the market moves against you).
I wrote about this before and I continue to stand by my opinion. Good luck unloading your illiquid real estate Blackstone.
In another sign that the “Dead Cat Bounce” for the Real Estate market is now over, Blackstone Group has announced that it’s real estate acquisition pace has slowed 70% from last years pace due to higher prices. In fact, this is the trend seen across the industry. Investors, hedge funds, institutions are all slowing down their real estate acquisitions to the tune of 70-90%.
“The institutional wave has passed,” Gray, who oversees almost $80 billion in property investments, said in a telephone interview. “It’s at a much lower level than it was 12 or 24 months ago.”
What happens next?
Easy. The real estate market might hover here for some time. Not too long thought. As soon the Bear Market of 2014-2017 hits and the US falls back into a severe recession, you will see housing going down once again. Once investors realize where we are in the real estate cyclical composition (dead cat bounce and not expansion) you will see the likes of Blackstone trying to get rid of their properties as fast as possible. With investors heading for the doors, mass volume of real estate should hit the market. Collapsing existing values just as fast, if not faster, than their initial ascend between 2010-2014.
Good luck selling your 43,000 rental properties Blackstone.
What Happens When Blackstone Starts Dumping Real Estate At Market? Google
Daily Stock Market Update. June 3rd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com
A slight down day with the Dow Jones down 21 points (-0.13%) and the Nasdaq down 3 points (-0.07%).
If the stock market was a patient it would be pronounced dead already. Did someone shut down Wall Street or has everyone left for the Hamptons already?
In all seriousness and as I have mentioned before, the market continues to accumulate energy. Like a spring. This is a very dangerous period. Typically, periods of inactivity are followed by periods of immense activity, catching most traders/investors with their pants down. Based on my mathematical work, it is likely to be the case here.
In other words, when this period of inactivity ends the stock market will stage either a massive rally or a “mini-crash” kind of a move. If you would be interested in learning which way it will break and when, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 3rd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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Daily Stock Market Update. June 3rd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google
Peter Schiff Capitulates: Are Markets About To Collapse?
Peter Schiff, one of the most “in your face” perma bears has basically capitulated. After years of predicting US Equity market collapse, appearing on various TV/Radio shows and writing a few books on the subject matter, Peter now believes the FED will be able to delay any such collapse….. “The air is already coming out of the bubble” but Fed can delay collapse: Peter Schiff
A contrary indicator?
You bet. Listen, Peter Schiff is a very intelligent man. Yet, one of the hardest things out there is to be a bear in an ever increasing bull market. Even though your research might be right, your timing might be off by as much as a few years. And the market makes you pay for it by making you look like an absolute idiot. I had the privilege of experiencing this in 2006-2007 when my call for 2008 collapse was a few years early.
This is something that all investors should be aware of. I call it an emotional detachment from a proposed outcome. While it is important to have a very well researched position, it is even more important to be able to change your view when need be. Very few people can do that and that is why most people buy at the top and sell at the bottom. Unfortunately, Mr. Schiff is giving up at exactly the wrong time.
Daily Stock Market Update. June 2nd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com
6/2/2014 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 26 points (+0.16%) and the Nasdaq down 5 points (-0.13%)
I haven’t heard anyone else mention this, at least not yet, but it appears that the Nasdaq might be building a fairly large Head-And-Shoulders trading pattern. With the left shoulder starting on December 12th, 2013, top of the head appearing in early March and the start of the right shoulder developing from the April 11th bottom. Plus, if we take TIME symmetry into consideration, the right shoulder doesn’t have that much more time to complete itself.
What does all of that mean?
Typically, head and shoulder patterns develop and set off major trend shifts. Basically, if the Nasdaq ends up completing this pattern over the next few trading weeks/months and then proceeds to breakdown below 4,000, there will be hell to pay on the downside. As you know from my previous posts, the fundamentals and various other market divergences tend to support this hypothesis.
Not only that, this is further confirmed by my mathematical and timing work. Again, my work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 2nd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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Daily Stock Market Update. June 2nd, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google
Idiots At The FED, “Let’s Jack Up The Rates…NOW”
At least for the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George, the future is crystal clear. According to her, the US Economy will continue to accelerate, interest rates will go significantly higher and the FED will eventually work through it’s $4 Trillion Junk balance sheet without a sweat. The time to raise the rates is NOW. Fed’s George wants rate hikes soon, and not too gradual
With her vision being so clear, it must be a personal sacrifice working for the FED and NOT making billions on Wall Street. Yet, the reality is quite different.
Interest rates continue to decline while flattening the yield curve (suggesting a recession), the stock market is back to the bubble/speculation levels unseen since the 2000/2007 tops and the FED continues to tighten. As I have mentioned before, the worst thing they can do now is cut the QE, let alone raise interest rates. Proving once again, the FED is nothing more than a reactionary force.
All of this is confirmed by my mathematical and timing work. It shows a severe bear market/recession within the US between 2014-2017. When this bear market starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when this bear market will start and its subsequent internal composition, please Click Here.
Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast. May 31st, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com
Weekly Update & Summary: May 31st, 2014
A strong up week with the Dow Jones up 111 points (+0.67%) and the Nasdaq up 57 points (+1.36%). While the Dow remained within its tight trading range, the Nasdaq continued to display strong divergence on low volume. Short covering in “High Flyers” continues to be the most likely culprit.
All markets left a large downside gap on May 27th. That is in addition to the two large downside gaps on May 21st/23rd and another two large downside gaps on April 14th/16th. Indicating an eventual correction.
Further, there are a number of smaller gaps left leading all the way down to February 5th low. We continue to believe that the Dow will close such gaps when the next bear leg develops at below mentioned time frames (please see mathematical analysis & timing section below).
WEEKLY REVIEW:
Stock Market Breadth Continues To Deteriorate
As we continue our look at how out of touch with reality the stock market is, it is time to look at deteriorating market internals. Even though the indices are up and hitting all time highs very few stocks are following.
For instance, for the S&P on a monthly daily average only 26 companies are making 52-week highs. That number was as high as 200 just a little over a year ago. Or the market went from 1 out of about 2.5 stocks making new highs to 1 in 20.
In other words, fewer stocks making all time highs while major indices push higher mask a huge underlying issues known as market breadth. While not a significant issue in itself, when we combine it with today’s extreme overvaluation levels, rampant speculation, too much credit, VIX getting close to an all time low and seasonal/cyclical factors……..it becomes yet another warning sign.
As such, major indices setting in new highs is nothing more than a beautiful mirage.
How Long Before Corporate America Destroys The NSA?
The sooner the better. Yesterday, China’s Government started instructing Chinese banks and other financial institutions to replace US made IMB servers with their Chinese made counterparts due to the fears of spying. IBM Faces Further Trouble in China. Rightfully so….
How long before other countries and businesses follow? Not very long. No one wants to be spied on and that is exactly what you are getting when you buy any sort of technology from the US today. Courtesy of the Obama Administration and the NSA.
Basically, it won’t be long before American corporation will see billions in revenue vanish into thin air. It’s already happening. I truly hope that the backlash against the US Government from these corporate interest is so strong that it utterly guts or destroys the NSA. While that might be wishful thinking on my part, this is the only was the NSA monster can be destroyed at this juncture as most American continue to be more interested in who wins the American Idol as opposed to their freedoms or privacy.
Are Bond Vigilantes Buying Bonds?
As yields continue to decline and as the yield curve continues to compress, BusinessWeek asks “Where Are The Bond Vigilantes“
In fact, Bloomberg News reports, there is “deepening concern among bond investors that tepid wage growth and a lack of inflation will persist for years to come.” The story quotes Margaret Kerins, the Chicago-based head of fixed-income strategy at Bank of Montreal: “Potential growth is a huge determinant of that long-term rate and most people are buying into the idea of lower potential growth.”
I think this is the most significant story no one is talking about. While most people believe yields are heading lower due to the lack of inflation, slower growth or simply because the bond market has gone crazy, I do not share in their optimism.
Here is why the yields are going down and the yield curve is compressing.
- The bond market is starting to see a severe recession and a bear market within the US Economy. Our mathematical and timing work confirms the same. Showing a significant recession and a bear market between 2014-2017.
- Typically, 30-year bear markets in yield do not end in a V shape form. When such long moves complete they often set a secondary bottom (at least). This fits well within our overall economic forecast as we anticipate yields to set a secondary bottom over the next 2-3 years. In 2016 to be exact.
- There are a number of open gaps leading all the way down to 1.5-1.6% on a 10-Year Note. Again, it is highly probable yields will go there over the next 2-3 years.
When we put all of this together, it becomes evident that the US Economy and the US Stock Market are in real trouble going forward.
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS:
I am just as tired of this as you are, but Ukraine/Russia/USA/EU/NATO continue to be the most important issue. In fact, I continue to believe that things will escalate significantly over the next few weeks.
Over the weekend, Petro Poroshenko has won a landslide victory to become Ukraine’s next president. Knows as Ukraine’s “Chocolate King” and dubbed as a “pro-west” Entrepreneur by the Western Media, Poroshenko is anything but that.
If you take a closer look……organized crime, extortion, prostitution and arms trafficking would take up at least 70% of his resume. Yet, to the Western Media he is just another outstanding citizen the Obama Administration is keen on supporting. Unfortunately, no one becomes a billionaire in that part of the world through the same channels available in the West. After years of doing business in Russia I can attest to that.
The next two weeks become incredibly important. Poroshenko will either gain complete control in Ukraine through the use of force or an all out civil war will break out. If an all out civil war becomes a reality, it is still possible that Russia intervenes militarily to “protect” East Ukraine and ethnic Russians.
As you can imagine this situation will spark a number of economic sanctions (from both sides), political storm, war rhetoric and a million other unforeseen consequences. It is highly probable that this would be incredibly unsettling for financial markets. I can tell you one thing, most markets do not have this priced in. The upcoming week is critical.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE DOW JONES:
Long-Term: The trend is still up. Market action in January-February could be viewed as a simple correction in an ongoing bull market. Same applies to the market action over the last few months. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.
Intermediary-Term: Since February 5th, intermediary term picture shifted from negative to positive. Giving us a technical indication that both the intermediary term and the long term trends are up. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.
Short-Term: Short-term trend remains positive for the time being. The Dow would have to break below 16,000 for the short-term trend to shift from positive to negative.
Again, even though all 3 trends are bullish for the time being, that might be misleading. Please read our Mathematical and Timing Analysis to see what will transpire over the next few weeks.
MATHEMATICAL & TIMING ANALYSIS:
It’s going to be a long one.
First, a re-cap. Particularly for our new subscribers. Over the last few months we have maintained that the DOW will…..
(*** Please Note: This time around about 90% of the information contained within this section has been deliberately removed as it contain too much technical information. Particularly, exact dates and prices of the upcoming turning points. As well as trading forecasts associated with them. I deem such information to be too valuable to be released onto the general public. As such, this information is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more.Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial).
In conclusion, xxxx
Longer-Term Overview:
The next turning point is located at……
Date: XXXX
Price: XXXX
TRADING:
I am now fully committed to the XXXX side of the market with 11 individual positions taken at the prices outlined below. A lot of them have done incredibly well thus far and I hope you were able to benefit as well. I will be updating you of any changes or anticipated changes before they take place.
Remember, you should have an exact strategy and entry/exit points based on the forecast above.
The list below is for your reference point. It entails my investment strategy for my own investment purposes. While you are free to follow me, please do so at your own risk. Do not take this as a trading advice. Please note, all of the positions below have been triggered.
| Stock | Entry Point ($) | Action Taken | Stop Loss @ |
| xxxx | xxxx | xxxx | 91 |
| xxxx | xxxx | xxxx | 1250 |
| xxxx | 110 | xxxx | 121-123 |
| xxxx | 74 | xxxx | 80 |
| xxxx | xxxx | xxxx | 260 |
| xxxx | xxxx | xxxx | 460 |
| xxxx | 35 | xxxx | 39 |
| xxxx | 65 | xxxx | 70 |
| xxxx | 120 | xxxx | 120-130 |
| xxxx | 100 | xxxx | 108-112 |
| xxxx | 112 | xxxx | 120 |
Otherwise, I suggest the following positioning over the next few days/weeks to minimize the risk while positioning yourself for a forecasted market action. (This is continuation of our previous positioning).
Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast. May 17th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com
If You Are A Trader: XXXX
If No Position: XXXX
If Long: XXXX
If Short: XXXX
CONCLUSION:
An incredibly important week is coming up. We are now looking for our forecasts above to be confirmed over the next few trading days/weeks. I have also described what to anticipate over the next few months and exactly what you should do now. With increased volatility, multiple interference patterns and an incredibly important long-term turning points coming up over the next few months we must be very careful and risk averse here. Those anticipating the moves and those who can time them properly will be rewarded appropriately.Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast. May 31st, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com
Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start.
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Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast. May 31st, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google
Daily Stock Market Update. May 30th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com
A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 18 points (0.11%) and the Nasdaq down 5 points (-0.13%).
The market continues to oscillate within a very tight trading range. If you haven’t noticed, the Dow has been flat since December 31st, 2013. Frustrating both the bulls and the bears to no end. As I have been suggesting since the beginning of the year, the bear market of 2014-2017 will be incredibly complex and frustrating.
Unlike it’s 2007-2009 fast moving and directional counterpart, the bear market of 2014-2017 will be volatile, all over the place (flat & directional) and overall extremely frustrating. At least that is what my mathematical and timing work is predicting. In fact, the Dow’s trading pattern in its 2000-2003 bear leg is a good indicator of what to expect over the next few years.
For now the market continues to accumulate energy (like a spring) as it remains range bound. When it finally snaps, investors should anticipate a powerful and a volatile move. In other words, don’t expect this low volatility to last too much longer. This is the calm before the storm and that is exactly how you should approach today’s market.
This is further confirmed by my mathematical and timing work. Again, my work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 30th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com
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Daily Stock Market Update. May 30th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google
Retail Speculation Is Back With A Vengeance
Not that we need another confirmation that the stock market is out of touch with reality, but since you have asked……the number of retail trades is through the roof and hitting all time highs. This is synonymous with market tops. Unfortunately, this enthusiasm must be crashed out of the market before the next bull market begins. In other words, grab your chair before the music stops playing.
