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Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 7th, 2014

Daily Chart February 7, 2014

Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position if invested -OR- be in CASH if not. 

2/7/2014 – Another large rally in the market with the Dow up 165 points (+1.60%) and the Nasdaq up 69 points (+1.69%). 

Many market participants are calling for the end of the correction and continuation of the bull market. I believe they might be premature and the overall notion is beside the point. 

As I have stated so many times before, the Dow Jones topped out on December 31st, 2013, ushering in the next leg of the cyclical bear market scheduled to bottom in 2017. While the long-term technical trend remains up and this could be viewed as a correction, my mathematical work is rarely off. First, it is yet to be seen if the rally over the last couple of days has any legs or if this is a simple bounce. Based on my calculation it is possible that Monday was the bottom, but the point of force was not strong enough to confirm an intermediary bottom. 

Is it possible that the point of force discussed below is the top and not the bottom? Yes, that is a possibility. However, before I change my position to such an outcome, we must first have a strong follow through early next week. If we do not and if the market proceeds to roll over and go lower, the points of force below once again become our primary targets and turning points. 

Either way you twist this, the situation above does not impact our overall trading portfolio. We continue to stay in CASH or LONG/HOLD while waiting for a confirmation that the bear market is indeed here. Please see tomorrows weekly update for a more detailed analysis. 

Short-Term Projections:

As of today, I am not adjusting the points of force below. My mathematical work shows two points of force coming in February. Typically we should anticipate a turning point on such dates. (Would you like to see the exact points of force in both price and time? Please +Subscribe to our premium service above). 

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Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 7th, 2014 Google

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LinkedIn (LNKD) Generational Buying Opportunity?

Let’s make this very simple. Great quarter for LinkedIn. Pretty much as good as it gets. They lowered their forward guidance, hence the stock sell off. Should you buy?

Not if you like your money. No doubt, LinkedIn is a very well run company. Yet, it is way too expensive for my taste. With about $25 Billion market cap, forward revenue of about $2 Billion and slowing growth, LinkedIn is too richly priced. Certainty, the company will continue to grow at a fast clip, but even a stampede of unemployed workers coming to LinkedIn’s platform (due to upcoming recession) in order to spam each other about job opportunities won’t justify the valuation.

Now, valuation metrics aside, stocks tend to deviate (sometimes significantly) over a short period of time. Is it possible for LinkedIn to surge higher? Sure, but even technical picture is somewhat deteriorating. Today’s down gap is likely to be closed over the next few days. Yet, will LinkedIn and its expensive stock price be able to avoid the pull of the upcoming bear market? Given its rich valuation and slowing growth trajectory, I don’t believe so. If anything, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Linkedin stock price to be cut in half over the next 3 years.

linkedin chart

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Here is a good analysis

LinkedIn: Why Are Investors Paying So Much For This Stock?

Feb. 7, 2014 10:14 AM ET |  5 comments |  About: LNKD

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…)

LinkedIn’s (LNKD) Q4 and FYR lived up to expectations, but guidance was not what the market had hoped for. So once again the usual pounding happened in after hours trading, but to my surprise, not enough if you ask me.

Actually, the company’s results were great and I don’t think investors could have asked much more from the company. Anything more would have been unrealistic. But once again, the problem is not the results or even the guidance, it’s what you pay for it. And in LinkedIn’s case, investors are paying way too much.

I am not going to bother running down the numbers. The company’s results are here and the presentation is here. If you have not read them yet, go ahead and do so …

Let me tell you what shocked me from yesterday’s report. Earnings aside and taking only revenue into account, the chart below shows the quarterly revenue of LinkedIn over the past several years.

(click to enlarge)

The blue line is the quarterly revenue of the company up until its recent report. The extension to that, beyond Q4 of 2013 (the green line), are numbers filled in by me based on guidance. In other words, irrespective of the actual results, I started with Q1 of 2014 by plucking in $460 in revenue — which is management’s upper limit guidance — and from there I simply increase randomly revenue every quarter thereafter, so as to come within guidance of $2 billion in revenue for all of 2014 (the green line).

The red line calculates year-over-year quarterly revenue growth. Now up to the most recent quarter, quarterly growth on a year-over-year basis has been coming down since about Q3 of 2011. With the most recent results, it is now down to about 40%. But based on management’s guidance, that will come down to about 20% by the end of 2014.

My question is, is LinkedIn worth $26 billion? Is any company with $2 billion in revenue and with forward guidance of 20% revenue growth worth that much? In my book, LinkedIn is not worth $26 billion even with 50% year-over-year quarterly revenue growth, let alone 20%.

But let me ask investors another question. What will happen if the growth trajectory of the company continues to disappoint further in 2015 and 2016? How much of a multiple will the market put on LinkedIn then, if for example management’s guidance calls for 30% revenue growth in 2015 instead of the almost 50% that the market is expecting? Will the market still pay $26 billion for the company’s stock? My answer is no.

And if you want my opinion, if management disappoints again and the market realizes that the super high growth days are over, then it will mark the stock down beyond what anyone imagines. By how much we will have to wait and see, but even $100 a share is pretty farfetched for LinkedIn’s stock if you ask me.

The market was modeling $2.16 in revenue for 2014 and management gave the market around $2 billion. The market is modeling around $2.9 billion in revenue for 2015 and my guess is that analysts will be bringing that figure down. By how much makes no difference, because even with $3 billion in revenue, there is no reason for LinkedIn’s market cap to be around $26 billion anyway.

LinkedIn (LNKD) Generational Buying Opportunity?  Google

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US To European Union, “Straight Up F$%# You”

I am scratching my head here. Yes, yes… everyone knows that the US has the biggest cock on the block, but what the hell is the US doing meddling in Russia’s and EU business is beyond me. What was long speculated upon by Russia and Ukraine was finally revealed to be true. The US is sticking its big nose into Ukraine’s “you know what”, trying to smell what Russia is cooking. 

Yet, the US wasn’t done. One thing we have in excess in the “Land of the Free” is arrogance.  Taking this unlimited natural resource in mind, the US Officials proceeded to accuse Russia of spying on their secret communications.

WTF???  What planet do these people live on. First, NSA spies on every monkey with a cell phone on the face of this earth. Then the US Government tries to engineer or assist in a political coup in Ukraine (territory that Russia firmly controls) and they get “angry” because Russia intercepted their communication. I give up. The Dow is going to 25,000 by March….I better go buy some stocks now.  

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Bloomberg: Intercepted F-Bomb Phone Call Shows U.S. Role in Ukraine

Some undiplomatic language by the top U.S. diplomat for Europe has rattled relations with the European Union and added more tension to the East-West strains over Ukraine’s political crisis.

“F–k the EU,” Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland said in a private phone call, expressing frustration with European Union efforts to resolve Ukraine’s political turmoil.

On the eve of Russia’s showcase Olympics in Sochi, the U.S. suggested yesterday that Moscow’s intelligence apparatus was involved in some way with the leaked recording of the intercepted phone call between Nuland and U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt. The call was made last month, based on references in the discussion.

State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki blamed Russian “tradecraft” — a word used to describe espionage activity — after an unknown individual posted the audio recording on Google Inc.’s (GOOG) YouTube. The clip, which was subtitled in Russian rather than Ukrainian and accompanied by photographs and images of people mentioned in the call, was reported by the Kyiv Post earlier yesterday as Nuland arrived for talks in the Ukrainian capital.

US To European Union, “Straight Up F$%# You” Google

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Emerging Markets Crisis… About To Throw US Into A Recession? Or Is It The Other Way Around?

The Ivory Tower brain bank idiots have done it again. Yes, let’s blame those pesky “Emerging Economies” for all of our economic troubles. The reality, of course, is the other way around. The emerging economies are the extensions of the US Economy to whatever degree they were stupid enough to dilute their own economies with the help of the FED and it’s “free” credit.

The emerging economies will suffer the same fate as the US, but to a much more devastating degree. When the US Economy catches the cold and slips back into a severe recession, due to the upcoming bear market (based on my mathematical work it has already started),  the emerging economies will, to the large extent collapse……vomiting out blood and guts associated with credit. 

Philippines is one of the “Emerging Markets”. Philippine Stock Index: Please note the technical setup. The chart is sitting right next to support indicating a possible break down. There is absolutely no support until it reaches 2,000 or 60% haircut. 

philippines-stock-market2

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Emerging markets: Big trouble ahead but crisis? “I think not” says economist

The pain in emerging markets is cutting into the performance of funds managed by some of the biggest names on Wall Street including BlackRock and T. Rowe Price, with some mutual funds already down 10% this year on falling stocks and currencies. As investors rush to pull more money out, how concerning is the emerging markets turmoil and how might it affect developed economies like the United States?

“Emerging markets are certainly in trouble,” says Eswar Prasad, Cornell University professor and author of “The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightned Its Grip on Global Finance.” There is “big trouble ahead, but a crisis? I think not.”

Prasad says Turkey and Argentina in particular are countries that are really susceptible to crises. Others like Brazil, India and South Africa — which are vulnerable because of large current-account deficits, budget deficits, and political instability — are going to have a rough patch. But he notes that things have really shifted over the last decade for emerging markets, which don’t have as much external debt as they used to and possess lots of cash reserves.

In terms of what impact this turmoil has on the developed world, opinions differ. Economist Nouriel Roubini is warning of a tail risk to the global economy and Goldman Sachs says “what happens in emerging markets mostly stays in emerging markets.”

Prasad says the emerging market weakness is “certainly not good for the U.S. economy.” He says with these economies slowing, “the world is again going to be looking to the coattails of the U.S. to pull it along.”

He asserts that the weaknesses in the rest of the world keeps the U.S. dollar stronger than it would otherwise be, which means fewer exports and fewer jobs here. While he acknowledges that it makes U.S. imports cheaper, he says it’s not good for growth.

Emerging Markets Crisis About To Throw US Into Recession? Or Is It The Other Way Around? Google

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Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 6th, 2014

Daily Chart February 6, 2014

Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position if invested -OR- be in CASH if not. 

2/6/2014 – Big day in the market with the Dow Jones up 188 points (+1.22%) and the Nasdaq up 46 points (1.14%). 

The question on everyone’s mind is…..has the market bottomed? Is the correction over? 

As of right now and based on my work I see very little evidence of that. Our primary points of force and their price targets remain intact (please see them below). At least for today. We might have to adjust those targets if we are to see strong follow through over the next few trading days, but that is still to be seen. The market opened up with a 60 point gap in the morning, giving us an early indication that it will turn around and go lower (in short order) to close the gap. Further, subsequent move lower to hit our points of force before any sustained bounce from the January-February sell off can take place is highly probable. 

As such, our current position remains intact. If you are in CASH, maintain your cash position while waiting for a technical confirmation that the Bear market has started. Otherwise, maintain a long/hold position.  The long-term trend is still intact and bullish. 

Short-Term Projections:

As of today, I am not adjusting the points of force below. My mathematical work shows two points of force coming in February. Typically we should anticipate a turning point on such dates. (Would you like to see the exact points of force in both price and time? Please +Subscribe to our premium service above). 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 6th, 2014 Google

Daily Chart February 6, 2014

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4 Reasons Why The US Unemployment Rate Will Be At 20% By 2017

Hey, don’t hate the messenger. I am just a financial analyst with a knack for accurately predicting financial markets and overall economies. If you really need someone to blame, I have got a few peeps for you.  You can start with Bush, Obama, Greenspan, Bernanke and every member of Congress/Senate over the last 15 or so years.

It was their irresponsible fiscal management that has led us all into this predicament.  Let’s take a look.

Reason 1:  Today’s Unemployment Reading Is Not Very Accurate

UNRATE_Max_630_378

As per Chart 1, according to the Bureau of Labor today’s unemployment rate stands at 6.7%. However, this number alone doesn’t show a clear picture. It excludes a number of categories. Primarily, those working part-time, but looking for a full time job and those who have given up looking for any sort of a job, exiting the labor pool completely. Perhaps waiting for a better time.   

unemployment rate 2 investwithalex

Now, if you take a look at Chart 2, you will note that the total unemployment rate (including the people above) is at around 12.5%. I believe that is a much better representation of today’s unemployment number. Particularly, when you take distrust in our Government’s statistics into consideration.

In conclusion and according to our Government’s own numbers, the true starting unemployment number  should be at 12.5% and not 6.7%.  I can argue that the overall number is technically higher, but to be conservative let’s go ahead and stick to 12.5%.  

Reason 2: Upcoming Bear Market (2014-17) Will Throw The Economy Into A Severe Recession

This has been my fundamental view for quite a bit of time. Today’s economic “recovery” is nothing more than an illusion driven by massive amounts of credit pumped into our economy by the FED . If you are counting, 3 Trillion over the last 3 years alone while maintaining a negative interest rate environment.

Listen buddy, there is no free lunch.  If you think that these actions to save the US Economy from the “Great Recession” of 2007-09 will be without consequences, you are gravely mistaken.  A few weeks ago my mathematical timing work has confirmed that December 31st, 2013 was indeed the top of the bull market that started in March of 2009. The bear market will last over the next 3 years and take the Dow Jones into the 9,000-10,000 range.  Ushering in a severe US recession.

In such a recessionary environment we should anticipate massive labor force losses as businesses give out pink slips by the millions. Just like they did in 2007-09.

As such, we should anticipate the unemployment rate to go much higher. Let’s be EXTREMELY conservative and assume that the upcoming recession will only retrace 50% of the 2010 unemployment high of 18% as per Chart 2.

This puts our true unemployment projection at 15.25% by 2017 bear market bottom.

Reason 3: ObamaCare

I wrote a detailed analysis about this yesterday. The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday said that the Affordable Care Act will contribute to the equivalent of 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017, as employees work fewer hours or decide to drop out of the labor force entirely. 

doctor-obamacare-investwithalex

With the US labor force being roughly 155 Million people, a cool 1.3% of people will lose their jobs in one form or another due to ObamaCare alone. Thanks Obama.  

However, if you read my analysis on February 4th, you would note that I effectively argued that ObamaCare losses are likely to be close to 4 million jobs and not 2 million. Effectively putting additional job losses at 2.6%.

We are now at 17.85% unemployment by 2017.

Reason 4: Productivity Gains, Technological Improvements, Outsourcing & Robotics

It costs about $2.5/hour to outsource your job to either India or the Philippines. Robotics are pushing the envelope for blue color workers and some products out there can achieve a $2.81 hourly run rate…..today. With constant improvements in this new field, some estimate the hourly cost to be down to about $1.50/hour over the next few years.

How can anyone compete with that? Well, you can’t.

Further, productivity gains and other technological improvements will have a significant impact as well. Again, let’s be on the safe side and assume the 4 points above will cost an additional 3 Million in job losses or 2% of the total labor force by 2017.

Putting us at 19.85% true unemployment by 2017 bear market bottom.  

CONCLUSION:

When we get there, the US Government will never admit to this number and will use every accounting trick in the book to hide the reality. Yet, you know better dear reader. Just like today’s unemployment number of 6.7% is not indicative of today’s true unemployment picture, 2017’s true number will be hidden behind the veil of “Economic BS”.  

What can you do? Other than ensuring that your job is safe…..absolutely nothing.  That is the sad part.  As far as I am concerned the scenario above is already baked into the cake and there is nothing anyone can do. Even praying to Jesus Christ won’t help. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

4 Reasons Why The US Unemployment Rate Will Be At 20% By 2017 Google

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Warning: Why Does CNBC Wants To Destroy Your Wealth

CNBC Idiots

CNBC Writes: Why long-term investors should buy this selloff 

After a year of steady and quite remarkable gains, fear has crept back into the stock market. Concerns about the U.S. economy have joined emerging market weakness and jitters about the Federal Reserve’s stimulus reduction to send the S&P 500down 6 percent from the high reached Jan. 15. But savvy traders are advising long-term investors that this selloff is presenting a terrific opportunity to buy stocks at a discount.

“If you’re a long-term investor, now’s the time to be allocating,” said Rich Ilczysyzn, senior commodities broker at iiTrader. “I know there’s a lot of pension fund capital waiting to be allocated. They may wait for a specific trigger, maybe 5 percent, or maybe 10 percent. But it’s not going to give the retail guy a lot of time to jump on. And what’s going to happen is, people are going to miss the absolute bottom.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Only the pump and dumpers or the idiots in the financial media can say that a mere 6% selloff is a “buying opportunity of a lifetime”.  I think that teach that phrase in the stock broker school to be repeated like a retarded parrot. Well, I guess I shouldn’t expect anything else from CNBC, a perpetual BS machine.

I would admit to one thing. It was quite entertaining to watch CNBC on huge down days in 2008 and 2009. To watch their “deer in the headlights” faces as they whined while trying to figure out why the collapse was happening. According to them, no one saw it coming.

WRONG, dear talking heads. Plenty of people saw it coming, including myself, and have tried to warn others. Yet, no one wanted to listen. We have the exact same situation today. That is fine by me. That is human nature and I have no desire to shove my work or opinion down anyone’s throat.   

At the same time, one reality remains. The stock market is incredibly overpriced.  Particularly, if you take credit and speculation into consideration.  The most important point to understand here is that corporate earnings over the last 5 years have been driven by the same credit infusion (by the FED to the tune of $85 Billion a month + negative interest rates) that spilled into the stock market. When this QE goes away and/or when the velocity of credit slows down, both happening now,  the stock market as well as the earnings will collapse.

Leading to a significant recession and a massive amount of wealth disappearing into thin air. As I have already mentioned on this blog a number of times,  my mathematical work has confirmed that the bull market has already topped out on December 31st, 2013 and the bear will take us into the 2017 bottom. I am not sure if I can be any more clearer than that.

As such, if you want to listen to retards on CNBC (no offence to the genuinely challenged community) telling you that this is a buying opportunity of a life time, go for it.  Just ask yourself, where were they when the real buying opportunity presented itself in the March of 2009. 

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Warning: Why Does CNBC Wants To Destroy Your Wealth Google

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Daily Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 4th, 2014

Daily Chart February 4, 2014

Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position if invested -OR- be in CASH if not. 

2/4/2014 – A fairly slow bounce day in the market with the Dow Jones being up 72.44 points (+0.47%) and the Nasdaq being up 34.5 points (+0.86%). 

As of right now there is no indication in my mathematical work that this particular bear leg from the December 31st, 2013 top is over. I have a number of points of force showing a lower Dow Jones before an eventual turn around and a bounce. I advise that you continue to maintain our In Cash -or- Hold/Long position as we wait for the bear market confirmation. 

While such a stance might cause further short-term losses, it is the most prudent thing to do from a long-term trading strategy.

Short Term Update:  My short-term update includes exact points for force and anticipated turning points in both price and time. If you would be interested in knowing when the market will turn around….please visit our premium Subscriber section. 

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Daily Stock Market Update. InvestWithAlex.com February 4th, 2014 Google

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Shocking Truth Finally Comes Out. ObamaCare Will Destroy 4 Million Jobs. The Government Itself Confirms.

doctor-obamacare-investwithalex

Business Insider Writes: CBO: Obamacare Will Lead To 2 Million Fewer Workers In The Labor Force By 2017

The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday said that the Affordable Care Act will contribute to the equivalent of 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017, as employees work fewer hours or decide to drop out of the labor force entirely. 

The reduction in the numbers of hours worked projected by the CBO will lead to the equivalent of 2 million fewer workers in the labor force in 2017. That number will rise to about 2.5 million in 2024. Previously, the CBO had estimated the equivalent of 800,000 fewer workers by 2021.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

What a fucking disaster.

I use the rule of TWO to either multiply or divide the data coming out of the US Government. It give me a much more accurate data. For instance, when the government wants its data to look favorable, multiply it by 2 to get a more accurate read and vice versa.

For example, multiply the current unemployment rate of 6.7% by 2 and you end up with 13.4%. As far as I am concerned, a much more accurate representation of unemployment when you take part timers and those who have given up looking for work into consideration.

The Congressional Budget Office just announced that the Affordable Care Act will contribute to the equivalent of 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017. Since they want this data to look as favorable as possible, go ahead and multiply it by 2 to get a more accurate indicator. What does that mean?

The Government itself just admitted that ObamaCare will cost 4 Million jobs.
I am speechless.

As far as I am concerned any regulation that destroys jobs, hurts businesses and slows economic growth is an evil law. Period.  I am afraid, due to the upcoming recession (based on my timing work) the net job losses due to ObamaCare will be much more than 4 Million jobs.

What pisses me off more than anything is complete economic incompetence at every level of our government. They have consistently done nothing but exacerbate our economic problems.

Disappearing middle class, massive debt, wars, credit bubbles, real estate bubbles, corporate earnings bubbles, stock market bubbles, upcoming recession and dim economic future is a clear indication of that. Sad. 

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Shocking Truth Comes Out. ObamaCare Will Destroy 4 Million Jobs. The Government Itself Confirms. Google

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Who Makes More Money, Investors or Speculators?

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 19Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics:

Reader’s Question: “Is it better to be a long-term investor or a speculator. Who makes more money?”  – Robert Casper, TX 

    • Why This Is The Wrong Question To Ask. 
    • The Secret Truth Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know. 
    • Who Makes More Money. 
    • Who Should You Be In Order To Maximize Your Returns.  

Please tweet me your questions @investwithalex

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