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End Of The Day Stock Market Update, January 14, 2014

 Daily Chart January 14 2014

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

1/14/2014 – Just a normal day and nothing to write home about. After yesterday’s sell off the market opened with a gap up and kept going up. The day ended with the DOW being up +116 or (+0.71%). From our long term perspective there has been no change. I continue to advice to hold your long position for the time being. While over the short term the market might go down even further, my mathematical work indicates that the Bull market that started in March of 2009 has a LITTLE bit longer to go. Either way, we have to wait for a confirmation before reversing position.   

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Why The Bear Market Will Start In 2014

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 8

 

Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics. Why The Bear Market Will Start In 2014?

    • Why we are still in the bear market that started in 2000.
    • The secret behind the final leg down. 
    • Does fundamental and technical analysis confirm the bear market? 
    • When will the bear market end and how low will it go?  

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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End Of Day Stock Market Update, January 13, 2014

Daily Chart January 13 2014

A big down day for the market. With the Dow being down -179 or (-1.09%) for the day. The market continues to falter since the start of January. As I have mentioned in my earlier (weekly updates) there was a significant turning point on January 1st. Yet, this is not the beginning of the bear market I have predicted for 2014. The market is not done quit yet with the upswing. Current market action is the beginning of the top forming process and volatility. For the time being, it would be prudent to remain long while we wait for a confirmation that the bear market has indeed started.   

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End Of Day Stock Market Update, January 13, 2014 

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Why Most People Keep Loosing Money In The Stock Market

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 7

 

Today’s 5 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics. Why Most People Keep Loosing Money In The Stock Market?

    • What is the difference between investing and speculating? 
    • The secret behind why most market participants behave as speculators.  
    • How to avoid this trap. 
    • How to double your gains with this simple trick overnight.  

Did you enjoy this podcast? If so, please review it on iTunes and share it with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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Why Stocks Are Poised For Huge Losses In 2014

Yahoo Finance Writes: Stocks poised for huge gains in 2014: Top strategist

rocket ship to the moon investiwthalex 

Even though 2014 has started off with a whimper for the markets, Jonathan Golub, Chief US Market Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, believes that stocks could hit record highs this year.

“If we’re looking at an economy that’s probably going to grow at 2.5% this year – which is a very reasonable number,” says Golub, “that should be enough to drive something between 7% and 8% or more of earnings growth.”

“If you look at valuations, [stocks] still look very cheap relative to bond,” says Golub. “You add those two together and I don’t see why you wouldn’t have a double-digit return this year.” Golub says history shows stocks can still have a good year after a great year. In 2013, the S&P 500 had return of 29%. 

“If you look at the 10 best years over the last 75, the average return has been about 14% following really great years,” says Golub.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

The article above represents a prevailing view on Wall Street today. With bearish sentiment at an all time low, NO ONE sees any potential downside. If you are to listen to the main stream financial propaganda machine and most of the large banks, the stock market is going to the moon and beyond. 

Yet, for any reasonable investor this time period should represent a perfect opportunity to pause and reflect on where we really are. Let’s think about this for a second….

Is our economic recovery real?

NO. The main street is not feeling any type of an economic recovery. With poverty rates being at 50 year highs and with “real unemployment” pushing over 15%, only financial entities have been able to benefit from any type of an economic recovery.  Once again, the perceived economic recovery has been driven by massive infusion of credit into the financial system through QE, low interest rates and speculation.    

Is the stock market overpriced?

Absolutely. While everyone will have their own definition of “overvalued”, as a value investor, I cannot find anything to invest in.  Everything is overvalued and the prices I see today are reminiscent of 2000 and 2007 time frames.  However, if you enjoy buying $1 bills for $5, go for it.

Is there extreme Bullish sentiment?

Yes. Most sentiment indicators show that most bears have been killed. Some of the bullish sentiment readings are at an all time highs. Higher than 1987, 2000 and 2007.  

What does history teaches us about such times?

Well, the history teaches us that such times are dangerous. Listen, there is no doubt that the market is overpriced and highly distorted by credit and speculation. This cannot continue for an indefinite period of time. No matter what, the markets always readjust themselves.  As my mathematical work clearly indicates, the bear market is about to start in 2014. Get yourself ready. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Why Stocks Are Poised For Huge Losses In 2014

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Stock Market Update, January 10th ,2014

daily chart Jan10, 2014

 

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

Make no mistake. A severe bear market is coming and will start in 2014. That has always been my position and my advanced mathematical work confirms. If you would like to get a little bit more information, please click on the report at the bottom of this post to learn more. 

Fundamentally speaking, there is no reason for the market to be at these levels. The rally you see has been caused by a number of things. 1. Massive credit infusion into the financial markets/economy in the form of QE by the FED to the tune of $85 Billion per month. 2. Pure speculation and people panicking into stocks. 3. Market structure based on my mathematical work. Also known as, the market must complete its up move before reversing downward. 

Technically speaking, while the market is showing signs of a fatigue and a roll over, this is not yet the top.  Either way, we have to wait for a technical confirmation before reversing position. My previous updates and various fundamental issues associated with the market remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them. 

November 22nd Report

November 15th Report. 

November 8th Report.

November 1st Report.

As we continue to hold our long position while waiting for the market reversal, right now might be a good time to start thinking about how you would liquidate your holding and/or re-allocate your capital once the bear market of 2014-2017 starts.

If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  

 Stock Market Update, January 10th, 2014

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The Hunt For 10 Baggers

10 Bagger

Just a quick announcement for my loyal readers. While my current investment book “Timed Value” is being edited for publication over the next two weeks, I have decided to start working on my next book. The title of the book will be….

The Hunt For 10 Baggers

If you are not familiar with the term “Tenbagger”, it is the term that was first used by a legendary investor Peter Lynch. Tenbagger is a stock that has appreciated over 1,000% or 10x over a certain period time, providing investors with a massive return. 

In my new book, I will go back in history and take a detailed analytical look at such outperforming stocks. By looking through historic data, as well as annual and quarterly reports I will try to analyze and understand what had made the companies and stocks in question so successful. I will also look and try to identify proper entry and exist points to maximize potential returns. I will then attempt to identify common threads within such stocks to help us identify and pick future winners. I am incredibly excited about this project as I believe the analysis in the book will open up the window into picking huge winners while avoiding losers.  

Best of all, I will publish the entire book on this blog as I continue to write it on the daily basis. Wait for the introduction tomorrow. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 


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Stock Market Update, January 3rd, 2014

 daily chart Jan3, 2014 

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

The stock market continues to “Melt Up“, setting new daily highs and in the process ending 2013 with a massive 24% gain. As of right now, the trend continues to be up.  As such, there is no change in our overall position for the time being. As my mathematical work clearly shows and as I have stated numerous times here, the bear market will start shortly. Either way, we still have to wait for a technical confirmation. 

Many bears have been emailing me lately and asking how is it possible that the market continues to go up. Something important has to be understood. The stock market traces out exact mathematical patterns as it moves over time. Meaning, the market is doing exactly what it should be doing. You see, there is a point located in both price and time that the market must hit before resuming its bear market later this year. Think of this point as a point on a map where all roads converge. The market must go there before reversing. All other fundamental and otherwise technical indicators, do not matter. It must hit that point before reversing. Such market behavior is the reason why a lot of people get hurt playing the “short term” fundamental game. 

Back to the market. My previous updates and various fundamental issues associated with the market remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them. 

November 22nd Report

November 15th Report. 

November 8th Report.

November 1st Report.

As we continue to hold our long position while waiting for the market reversal, right now might be a good time to start thinking about how you would liquidate your holding and/or re-allocate your capital once the bear market of 2014-2017 starts.

If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  


 Stock Market Update, January 3rd, 2014

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Stock Market Update, December 27, 2013

December 27th, 2013 chart  

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

The stock market continues to “Melt Up“, setting new daily highs in the process. The trend is most definitely up.  As such, there is no change in our overall position for the time being. As my mathematical work clearly shows and as I have stated numerous times here, the bear market will start in early 2014. 

From the psychological as well as the technical perspective the market is significantly overbought and is set for a pullback. People are falling all over each other calling for some sort of an Economic miracle that will propel the US over the next few decades. All of that is just noise and you shouldn’t buy into that. Simply put, this market is driven by cheap credit, speculation and structure of the market itself (timing work that I do). Yet, rest assured, the bear market is just around the corner. Short term, my work shows a significant turning point around January 1st. I would expect a significant pullback to start shortly. At the same time, it will not be the beginning of the bear market. Hence, the advice to continue holding our long position. 

My previous updates and various fundamental issues associated with the market remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them. 

November 22nd Report

November 15th Report. 

November 8th Report.

November 1st Report.

As we continue to hold our long position while waiting for the market reversal, right now might be a good time to start thinking about how you would liquidate your holding and/or re-allocate your capital once the bear market of 2014-2017 starts.

If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  


 Stock Market Update, December 27, 2013

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Bears In Lamborghinis

bear in lamborghiniI remember 2006 very well. I was going around telling people the following,  “Listen guys, this is unsustainable, this market is in a crazy bubble driven primarily by mortgage finance and it will blow up soon”.   Most didn’t care and those who did called me “Boy who cried wolf”.

Fair enough. I decided to take matters into my own hands by shorting subprime mortgage lenders and multiple other real estate related companies that I believed are nothing more than a pile of stinky (but worthless) mortgage paper. Yet, the companies kept going up throughout 2006 and early 2007. Not only going up, they kept surging up like they were the best investments in the world. This was before my timing work and I was feeling miserable. My research was 100% accurate, yet the market was going the other way.  When these stocks did finally collapse in the summer of 2008, they have collapsed within weeks. With one stock price going from as high as $87 to as low as ZERO (filed for bankruptcy) in 11 trading days. I was vindicated, but it didn’t matter.

What’s the point of this story?

Even though I am currently a huge bear based on fundamental, macro and timing analysis, I do not currently hold a short position.  Quite the opposite. I am long the market, but solely based on my timing work.  My mathematical work clearly illustrates that a severe (3 year) bear market is starting in 2014 to complete in 2017. Before that happens, I feel the pain the bears are going through. Of course, they are right but they are suffering through the most difficult stage of all…. market blow off top.  This is the time where there are almost no bears left. Most of them have been killed.  Case and point.

S&P 500 Will Be at 2,000 Sooner Than You Think article that not only makes fun of the bears, but claims that everyone is bearish and that’s why S&P will hit 2000 soon. Well, maybe everyone is bearish if you can find any bears left. I don’t know of any. Even permabears have turned bullish.  

 

Perhaps he is talking about Carl Icahn who has turned bearish CARL ICAHN: The Stock Market Could See A ‘Big Drop’ And I’m ‘Very Cautious’

To moral of the story is this. With the market surging ever higher, this is the most difficult time to be a bear.  Every bear looks like a complete idiot and loser. Yet, as the saying goes, it is always darkest before the dawn.  True bears who maintain their position at this time will soon be greatly rewarded.  So much so that every true bear will be able to afford a Lamborghini.   

Did you enjoy this post? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!