1/31/2019 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 15 points (-0.06%) and the Nasdaq up 98 points (+1.37%) 

As we have been saying, the stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

An old wives’ tale on Wall Street states the following, “As goes the January so goes the rest of the year”. In other words, if the January is positive, the year will be as well. And if true, investors have a lot to cheer about.

WSJ: Resilient U.S. Economy Fuels Best January For Stocks in 30 Years

Banks and smaller companies that were among the market’s laggards last quarter have helped stocks to their best January in 30 years, a sign investors are favoring sectors tied to the U.S. economy.

Despite a modest performance from U.S. indexes Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both closed the month with their biggest January gains since the 1980s. The industrial average’s 7.2% rise was its best January performance since 1989, while the S&P’s 7.9% advance was its best start to a year since 1987.

However, before you run out to buy every stock you can find, please consider the data point above for what it is. A superstition at best. And we don’t have to look beyond January of 2016 to dismiss it with laughter. But it gets worst, a lot worse…..

Warning: Stocks have only been stretched this thin once in the past 150 years

That’s cold comfort for investors worried about where the market goes from here, considering stocks, by Lyons’s measure, are more overbought than any other time — dot-com bubble aside — in the past 150 years.

December weakness only helped so much. “Yes, the recent correction relieved much of the prevailing shorter-term overbought condition,” he explained. “But on a long-term basis, it has hardly made a dent.”

He came to the conclusion by using the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite data, which, as he explains, is essentially the current S&P 500 with re-engineered pricing prior to its inception in the 1950s using stock prices from the time. He then used exponential regression smoothing to find the “best fit” trend line.

YES, as we have been saying for some time, the stock market is selling at its highest valuation level in history. We would argue above 2000 levels as most of the bubble at the time was concentrated in tech issues. Today, it is “The Everything Bubble”.

All of the above brings an immense amount of confusion to most investors. Should one load up on stocks or run away screaming like a little girl?

Luckily, you don’t have to guess what the stock market will do next. If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here 

Please Note: Our latest call was a direct hit. While everyone was panicking our work projected an important bottom on December 27th (+/- 1 trading day) on the Dow at 21,725 (+/- 50 points). An actual bottom was put in place on December 26th at 21,713.

Most Americans today will dismiss the article below as nothing more than a rant of an old man. An irrelevant topic without consequences. I am here to remind you that nothing is without consequences. What is happening today will lead directly to a Nuclear Conflict with China/Russia where most of the world’s population will perish. Members of my service know very well the forecast I am talking about at its approaching kick off.

Either way, I highly encourage you to read the analysis below and decide for yourself.

A Lawless Government

Paul Craig Roberts

I remember when a suspect was regarded as innocent until proven guilty in a fair trial. Today prosecutors convict their victims in the media in order to make an unbiased jury impossible and thereby coerce a plea bargain that saves the prosecutor from having to prove his case. In the United States law is no longer a shield of the people. Law is a weapon in the hands of prosecutors. (See Roberts & Stratton, The Tyranny of Good Intentions.)

Formerly, if a prosecutor staged an arrest for publicity purposes, as Mueller did by placing a CNN presstitute on the scene and sending a couple of dozen heavily armed men in a pre-dawn raid to arrest a well known political consultant for allegedly “lying to Congress” when the appropriate procedure is for Mueller to inform Stone’s lawyer to present his client for indictment, the judge would throw out the case on the grounds that the prosecutor’s unethical action had biased the juror pool and made a fair trial impossible. The judge might also have thrown out the case on the grounds of selective prosecution. James Clapper while serving as Director of National Intelligence lied to Congress under oath and suffered no consequences, and Hillary Clinton has clearly broken the law and lied about it.

Today judges permit unethical behavior by prosecutors that deprives defendants of a fair trial, because judges don’t want the bother of trials any more than prosecutors do. Consequently, according to official statistics 97% of federal criminal cases are settled by a defendent pleaing guilty to a charge negotiated by his attorney and a prosecutor. As the charge is a negotiated or made-up one, most people in prison are there for confessing to crimes that never occurred.

Prosecutors, now that they are no longer bound by constraints of legal integrity, often fabricate a case against a person in order to force the person to give false testimony against the prosecutor’s real target. This is what Mueller’s cases against Cohen, Manafort, and Roger Stone are. Trump is the target, not Cohen, Manafort, and Stone. In addition, prosecutors string out the investigation so long that they force the target to use up his net worth fighting off an indictment. Then when the indictment arrives, there is no money left for lawyers, which adds to the pressure to “cooperate.” If Trump were a fighting man, he would pardon Cohen, Manafort, and Stone, reimburse them out of the Justice (sic) Department’s budget for their legal expenses, and have Mueller arrested for sedition and plotting to overthrow the duly elected President of the United States. This would be hypocritical as Trump himself is plotting to overthrow the duly elected president of Venezuela.

Mueller is not an agent of law. He is the agent of the military/security complex and the Democratic Party who intend to do away with Trump, because Trump positioned himself between them and their agendas.

The preposterous charge against Trump is that he, in league with Russian President Vladimir Putin somehow through computer hacking and backdoor deals stole the presidential election from Hillary Clinton. This is the fabrication known as “Russiagate.” The creation of this fabrication involves far more crimes than those of which Trump, Cohen, Manafort, and Stone are accused. “Russiagate” rests on a fake “dossier” paid for by the Democrats and perhaps the FBI that was used to mislead the FISA court in order to obtain permission to spy on the Trump team. This is a felony for which the officials responsible are not being charged. The spying failed to turn up any real evidence, and neither has Muller’s “investigation.” The charges against Cohen, Manafort, and Stone are unrelated to the election and are likely false and used as threats for the purpose of eliciting false testimony against Trump in exchange for dropping the charges.

Mueller’s tactics in his effort to frame the President of the United States are more despicable than the tactics to which the Gestapo stooped. Even worse, they are the tactics commonly in use today by US attorneys, and this evil has spread into state and local prosecutions. That prosecutors routinely behave in a way that once would have caused them to be dismissed from office shows the collapse of law and prosecutorial integrity in the United States.

The American and British media are as accommodating in the frameups as the German media was with the Nazi government. The Guardian, once an honest voice for the British working class, is now a propaganda sheet for British intelligence just as the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC, and NPR are for the CIA and FBI. The US media has never been very good, but until the Clinton regime during which 90 percent of the media was concentrated in six corporate hands, there was more than one explanation.

Since Donald Trump won the Republican presidential nomination, the media has been allied with the military/security complex and the Democratic Party in an effort to deep-six Trump. As I expected would be the case, Trump had no idea how to staff a government that would have supported him against the Establishment. He has been blocked on every front from normalizing relations with Russia to establishing control over US borders to withdrawal from Syria. The latest line from the military/security complex and the presstitutes is that the US cannot withdraw its troops illegally occupying a rump section of Syria, because ISIS is resurgent in Syria and Iraq and will renew the war if US troops are withdrawn.

This is nonsense. As General Flynn, the former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said on television, it was a willful decision of the Obama regime to send ISIS to overthrow Assad once Russia and the UK Parliament blocked a US invasion. It is Russia and Syria who fought and defeated Washington’s proxy army known as ISIS. Washington is blocking Trump’s order to withdraw US troops, because Israel wants the US to renew the attack on Syria and to carry it into Iran. Israel and its American vassals must think that Russia is going to stand down and permit the destabilization of the Islamic world to proceed into the Russian Federation.

Once upon a time the media and the foreign policy community would have publicly examined these issues. Now the media reads out the script handed to them.

As for Roger Stone, the media’s instructions are to convict Stone in the public’s mind as a facilitator of the Trump/Putin theft of the US presidential election. The actual facts do not matter, and the facts will never emerge from the media or from Mueller’s “investigation.”

1/30/2019 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 434 points (+1.77%) and the Nasdaq up 154 points (+2.20%) 

As we have been saying, the stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

Up, up and away? 

At least that appears to be the case for the market bulls who celebrated yet another victory after the FED’s Chair James Powell decided to turn himself into a Trump’s doormat.

It appears, at least at the initial glance, the risk trade is back on with the vengeance. Buy anything and everything and you should, in theory, do very well in the upcoming months.

I would caution against such a simple analysis. Just consider these three analytical data points for a second. First, Powell’s capitulation could and should be viewed in a negative light. Why go full dovish if wheels are not literally coming off Trump’s miracle economy. Second, just when investors think they have gotten it all figured out (green light to buy stocks), most often the stock market does the opposite. And finally, stocks tend to collapse as the FED pauses and/or cuts.

Luckily, you don’t have to guess what the stock market will do next. If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here 

Please Note: Our latest call was a direct hit. While everyone was panicking our work projected an important bottom on December 27th (+/- 1 trading day) on the Dow at 21,725 (+/- 50 points). An actual bottom was put in place on December 26th at 21,713.

1/29/2019 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 51 points (+0.21%) and the Nasdaq down 57 points (-0.81%) 

As we have been saying, the stock market remains at an incredibly important juncture. Things are about to accelerate in an unexpected way. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our timing and mathematical work, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

While most investors out there remain incredibly bullish, quite a few technicians now expect a re-test of December 2018 lows……

We Now Expect A Full Re-test Of The S&P Low At 2,346

Picking up on a theme that Nomura’s Charlie McElligott has been pounding the table on for the past few weeks, namely that the market is poised for a potential steep drop in the coming days, especially with the $7.5BN MBS rolloff from the Fed’s balance sheet on Jan 31, this morning BMO’s chief technician Russ Visch writes that after highlighting the deterioration underway in his short-term timing model for more than a week, “it appears as if the rubber is finally beginning to hit the road in a real way with respect to the “re-test” phase of this bottoming process.”

Specifically, Visch notes that yesterday the S&P 500 reversed back to the downside after failing at a declining trendline and warns that “given the history of how the bottoming process plays out for declines of this magnitude we expect the index is now likely to retrace most, if not all, of the rally since late December. i.e. – a full re-test of the low at 2346.”

Please note something of significant importance here.

While quite a few market technicians discuss a distinct possibility of the market re-testing its December lows, no one, and I mean no one, is even talking about the possibility of the market slicing through December low and falling much further.

This is consistent with the extreme long-term bullish sentiment we have been discussing here for months.

Luckily, we have a chart in our premium section that shows not only what the stock market should do over the next few weeks, but for the rest of the year. If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here 

Please Note: Our latest call was a direct hit. While everyone was panicking our work projected an important bottom on December 27th (+/- 1 trading day) on the Dow at 21,725 (+/- 50 points). An actual bottom was put in place on December 26th at 21,713.