9/11/2018 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 114 points (+0.44%) and the Nasdaq up 48 points (+0.61%) 

The stock market finds itself at a very interesting juncture. If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here

Interesting. Is this MAGA or just pouring more jet fuel on already highly speculative market?

$300 Billion Cash Repatriated in Q1, GS Expects Eventual $1Trillion in Buybacks

In the first quarter alone, multinational enterprises brought home about $300 billion of the $1 trillion held abroad, according to a recent Federal Reserve study. A good chunk of that repatriated money went to share repurchases — for the top 15 cash holders, some $55 billion was used on buybacks, more than double the $23 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017.

The above is not fundamentally solid and is best described by a 1,000 lbs man splurging on a cake. Cardiac arrest is just around the corner. Here is what Warren Buffett had to say about all of this…….

Again, this is Ponzi Finance to fuel dividends, stock buybacks, executive bonuses, higher stock prices, more bubble, etc….in the most overpriced market in human history and very late in the cycle.  And just as before, it won’t end well. Timing is the key here. 

If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here

Perhaps. If you would like to find out IF and when that will happen, in both price and time, please Click Here

9/10/2018 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 60 points (-0.23%) and the Nasdaq up 21 points (+0.27%)

The stock market finds itself at a very interesting juncture. If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here

We have beaten the bearish case for the market to death on this site over the last few months. Due to extreme overvaluation, speculation and monetary insanity associated with today’s markets.

We wrote before about Charles Nenner’s incredible prediction for the Dow on  a nuber of occasions. For instance, Charles Nenner Confirms His Forecast: The Dow Going To 5,000?

It appears the S&P might be pointing towards a similar faith. Consider the following….

Stocks Face Three Potential Outcomes: Pretty Bad, Bad and Horrific

Something has changed in the market.

The momentum-driven rally that pushed stocks to new all-time highs completely floundered a few weeks ago. What should have been a monster breakout on massive buying power ended up being a feeble push to new highs before stocks promptly rolled over.

Now, most investors will dismiss the above as crazy, even impossible.

Yet, consider what has transpired between the bottom on the S&P at 666 in 2009 and today.

Not very much. Well, the FED did pump a tremendous amount of funny money into the global economy. The debt levels have exploded, the corporates have used this funny money to repurchase their stocks at record valuation levels, margin debt at 3 times where it was in 2007, etc…

That is to say, the fundamentals haven’t improved. They have gotten much worse if we consider today’s incredible debt levels that are necessary to maintain this Ponzi Scheme. And did I mention that we are facing rising interest rates, inverted yield curve, Trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see and a trade war?

Doesn’t matter. At this stage it is all a matter of perception. If investors begin to discount all of the above, as they should, 500 level on the S&P becomes ever more so realistic.

Will we ever get there? If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here

A negative week with the Dow Jones down 48 points (-0.18%) and the Nasdaq down 207 points (-2.55%)

The stock market is behaving, more or less, as it should. If you would like to find out what happens next, in both price and time, based on our timing and mathematical work, please Click Here

The week has ended on an interesting note. Barack Obama came out swinging at Mr. Trump in his I AM BACK! Obama refers to himself 102 times during 64-minute speech. Luckily, Mr. Trump wasn’t far behind in touting his own amazing economic accomplishments.

So, you might be wondering, what are these two astute deep state operatives fighting about? You got it. In part they are fighting over the ownership of the biggest financial bubble in human history. Obama says that it is his, while Mr. Trump proclaims it is entirely of his own doing. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the sad state that our Nation exists in today.

In the meantime, things are not looking particularly good if you think Warren Buffett might be good at investing.

Beware Buffet’s Words: These 3 Critical Stock Market Indicators Signal Huge Losses Ahead

Last month, I wrote a piece about Warren Buffet’s favorite stock market metric and how it was signaling huge losses ahead.

If you haven’t read it yet – you can here. It’s even more relevant today.

And though Buffet’s favorite market indicator’s signaling huge danger ahead for investors – he just recently preached that stocks are still attractive.

This seems rather contradictory if you ask me. . .

Even though his favorite market value metric is at an all-time high – more so than during the DotCom bubble and Housing bubble. And with the S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones Index at record levels – Buffet’s still recommending stocks.

But, here’s the best part: he went on to say that he believes there will be another stock market crash eventually.

So, why does he talk about buying stocks when he’s expecting a coming crash?

His reasons are pretty simple: investors can’t time when the market will crash. So instead of sitting on the sidelines – waiting and missing the upside – just buy now. And when market prices do crash eventually – which he acknowledges they will – you can simply buy more at lower prices (also, he adds, compared to bonds – stocks are more attractive).

I kinda-sort-of agree with him. It’s not the best idea to try and time a market crash, as many value guys call it a ‘fools errand’.

There’s always that one person (we all know them) who thinks they will sell out right before prices collapse. But in reality, it never works out that way.

Do not listen to what Mr. Buffett has to say, instead, do as he does.

If you recall, Warren Buffett sold a ton of long-term puts in the midst of financial crisis in 2008-2009. A move that has contributed Billions to Berkshire-Hathaway profits ever since. Considering his own overbought indicators, is Mr. Buffett doing the same on the call side?

We might have an answer. If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here 

9/6/2018 – Another mixed day with the Dow Jones up 20 points (+0.08%) and the Nasdaq down 72 points (-0.91%)

If you are a well researched bear, you might be wondering,  who the hell is buying this market? 

The answer shouldn’t surprise you.

Stock Buybacks Hit Record $680 Billion In The First Half

From a purely financial point, companies in the S&P 500 that have repurchased shares are expected to see a return on investment of about 6.4% this year, a percentage that falls below the past six rolling five-year periods as measured by Fortuna Advisors, a financial consulting firm that has examined buyback trends going back to 2007.

CEOs, CFOs and Treasurers know all of this, of course, but to them the real goal is simpler: to cash out as soon as possible, while using the company’s balance sheet to soak up any insider sales. If the stock goes up in the process, so much the better.

Gregory Milano, Fortuna’s CEO, summarized it best:  “The majority of capital deployed is going right back to shareholders and not reinvestment in businesses. If that’s the only thing you’re relying on, it’s going to end badly.”

Of course it will, but as we approach an absolutely ridiculous $1 trillion in buybacks – actually the annualized first half buyback total of $678 billion would imply over $1.35 trillion in 2018 buybacks – at least it will end with a bang.

Indeed.

We have discussed this before. It is a well known fact that corporates behave in the exact same fashion as retail investors do. That is, they buy at the top and sell at the bottom.

So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that they are blowing their debt driven cash stock piles on stock buybacks in the market that is selling at the highest valuation level in its history. In other words, just another red flag that something terrible is just around the corner.

If you would like to find out what happens next in the stock market, in both price and time, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here