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Why The FED “Put” Will Fail

1/19/2024 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 395 points (+1.05%) and the Nasdaq up 255 points (+1.70%) 

The market continues to behave exactly as our time/price calculations project.

A couple of interesting articles today…….

Stocks & Bonds Tumble After Fed’s Waller Sends Rate-Cut Odds Reeling

    • At first glance, Fed Governor Chris Waller’s comments were more of the same – data-dependent, mini-mission-accomplished, be careful of easing financial conditions, and the market seems over-enthusiastic about 2024 policy. But it was the level of detail he added – and the flip-flop-ish nature of his comments – that colored the market’s perceptions hawkish (full speech here).

Stocks, Bonds, Oil, & Gold All Down As Waller Wrecks Rate-Cut Party

    • Comments by Governor Waller in a speech and discussion today raised the risk that the first cut could come slightly later than the market’s expectation of March and that the pace of cuts could be quarterly from the outset, rather than the market’s more aggressive forecast of three initial consecutive cuts followed by a switch to a quarterly pace.

We made a shocking prediction last week. Not only the FED won’t cut, they will continue to hike, at least for the time being. Here’s why…..

Because the market will force them to.

Keep raising rates….are you out of your mind? Yes and No!!!

Earlier in the day we updated our mathematical Time/Price 10-Year Note (TNX) Forecast You Won’t Believe What Interest Rates Will Do Next

In that forecast, while we do not share exact Time/Price targeting data, we do suggest that TNX hasn’t topped yet or that October’s high was not the final high. In other words, another leg higher is expected.

Here is the thing. The FED tends to follow the market and not lead it. Particularly the short end of the curve. Over the years I have presented a mountain of evidence to support this notion.

Meaning, if our overall TNX calculations are correct, and I have no reason to doubt them, interest rates are about to surge higher one more time. And if so, the FED will follow.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, should get very interesting.

Having said that, if you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, please Click Here.

Investment Wisdom Of The Day

If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, short-term and/or long-term, please Click Here

This Shocking Chart Shows When & Where The Top Will Arrive

As you know, we run a complex set of multi-dimensional calculations in order to identify upcoming turning points in the market.

For instance, the chart above takes prior mid-term moves, calculates them and then projects upcoming turning point into the future. Represented by the red dots above. The trick is to know which one is the actual turning point. 

That is done by converging various TIME turning points with geometric composition of the market. That gives us the final answer. 

So, which dot above is the final top – if any? 

If you would like to find out, please Click Here

Would You Believe Me If I Told You Bitcoin Did Not Bottom in 2022?

Here we go again………….to the moon !!!

Bitcoin could hit $80,000 by year-end, says this prominent asset manager

    • Bitcoin could reach an all-time high in 2024, with the potential to end the year at around $80,000, according to analysts at AllianceBernstein. The crypto BTCUSD’s price will likely be driven higher this year by the potential approval of an exchange-traded fund investing directly in bitcoin, the so-called halving event expected in April, and growing demand from companies, according to Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, analysts at AllianceBernstein. “We expect 2024 to be a breakout inflection year for crypto,” the analysts…

In early January of 2023 we confirmed Bitcoin’s November of 2022 bottom as a longer-term precise mathematical bottom and have suggested at the time that Bitcoin will run up to above $30K. No one believed us at the time – what else is new. 

It appears now that the proverbial Bitcoin bulls are coming back from the dead, their outlandish predictions are once again gaining steam. Not so fast….here is our latest Bitcoin (BTC) update……

BITCOIN (BTC)
Date of Analysis: October 30th, 2023

Our mathematical and timing analysis for Bitcoin shows the following…….

    • Short-term Bitcoin should remain range bound as it seeks out a mid-term top. We currently do not have any good mid-term time/price projections for this completion point. It’s a bit of a mess. 
    • Once the mid-term top arrives BTC will decline into a major bottom scheduled to arrive around XXXX of 20XX. 
    • We do have some bottom projection points, with the most likely bottom located at XXXX (+/- 100), but we would need a mid-term top point above to confirm this in full. 
    • Once the bottom arrives Bitcoin will turn into a fast mover and surge to a new all time high by about November of 20XX. This is the move to participate in. 

In summary, expect a range bound Bitcoin until a major bottom arrives around XXXX of 20XX. Then a powerful move higher to a new all time high. A more exact targeting analysis will be available as we approach the junctures above. 

If you would like to see our exact TIME & PRICE targets for Bitcoin’s (BTC) major bottom, as well as our precise turning point “targeting analysis” , please CLICK HERE

Our Recent Apple (AAPL) Forecasts Have Been Perfect – Find Out What Happens Next

Apple Inc (AAPL) – UPDATE
Date: January 3rd, 2024

Thus far, our Apple (AAPL) forecasts have been nearly perfect. Our prior forecast/update called for a $200 price target by September-October of 2023 (see below). And although the top arrived a little bit later (due to time extension), AAPL did hit $199.62 on December 16th. Going forward, our timing and mathematical work for Apple shows the following…..

To See The Rest Of The Forecast, Please Click Here

PRIOR FORECAST

Apple Inc (AAPL) – UPDATE
Date: June 27th, 2023

Our original AAPL forecast (see below) is working out perfectly.  If you recall, we originally predicted AAPL bottom would arrive on October 31st, 2022 at $124. Yet, when the bottom wasn’t reached by that juncture, we quickly shifted our forecast to December 31st, 2022 (+/- 2 trading days).

As you know, the actual bottom arrived on January 3rd at $124.17…….a direct hit. 

This was followed by the following statement (people thought we were crazy)

  • Once the bottom is put in place, Apple stock should rally into April of 2023. Our calculations suggest Apple should reach $208 (+/- $2) by the end of April. I say should not in terms of PRICE, but in terms of TIME. If AAPL doesn’t reach this PRICE target by April, the TIME variable will extend and the stock will need more time to hit the same PRICE target.

Once again, we have to make an adjustment to our original April TIME turning point due to the market’s inability to reach its targets by this juncture.

Yet, the overall forecast remains the same and in force.  

  • AAPL is approaching an important top. This top will arrive on a certain date in September – October of this year.
  • The final price projection is closer to $200 a share because the move is taking longer than the original price of $208 projected.
  • Once the top is put in place AAPL will very quickly move down. It is actually a fast mover to the downside between 2023 top and 2024 bottom. Exciting…..

End Of Day Market Update & Why The US Dollar Will Not Crash – Yet

12/18/2023 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 1 point (+0.01%) and the Nasdaq up 90 points (+0.61%) 

It is rather entertaining, but today’s top on the NDX has matched its January of 2022 counterpart to the point. No breakout yet. Having said that, it is a little beside the point. As we have mentioned before, we now have numerous confirmation that both the NDX/SPX will see their respective all time highs.

The Dow pushed slightly above its Intraday short-term point of force discussed in our Intraday analysis.  Although, it remains within the margin of error and cannot yet be fully dismissed. Meaning, while it is possible we get a pullback here, that possibility has greatly diminished short-term since we have pushed slightly above this short-term point of force. If we push higher tomorrow, this will be confirmed and the rally will continue.

No other changes to our longer-term weekly and prior daily updates.

The above section is a short excerpt from our Subscriber Analysis. If you would like to see the rest and if you would like to find out exactly when and where the top will arrive, please click on this link 

Now, I found the following article of great interest…….

Visualizing $97 Trillion Of Global Debt In 2023

Country Gross Debt (B) % of World Total Debt to GDP
🇺🇸 U.S. $33,228.9 34.2% 123.3%
🇨🇳 China $14,691.7 15.1% 83.0%
🇯🇵 Japan $10,797.2 11.1% 255.2%
🇬🇧 UK $3,468.7 3.6% 104.1%
🇫🇷 France $3,353.9 3.5% 110.0%
🇮🇹 Italy $3,141.4 3.2% 143.7%
🇮🇳 India $3,056.7 3.1% 81.9%
🇩🇪 Germany $2,919.3 3.0% 65.9%
🇨🇦 Canada $2,253.3 2.3% 106.4%
🇧🇷 Brazil $1,873.7 1.9% 88.1%
🇪🇸 Spain $1,697.5 1.7% 107.3%

I found the above of interest in terms of the US Dollar. Quite a few market participants believe the US Dollar is not worth the paper it is printed on and will soon crash. As accurate as that opinion might be, it flies in the face of our DXY forecast – at least for now. 

What the above data shows is that all major economies are stuck in the same boat and that other currencies are arguably “just as bad”. In other words, the US Dollar cannot crash against other currencies that are suffering from the same problem. And once again – YET.

Our DXY forecast is rather unique in that sense and shows USD movements going forward that no one is anticipating. If you would like to see that forecast, please Click Here and select our MegaCap Section.