Category: Stock Market

A positive day with the Dow Jones up 178 points (+0.72%) and the Nasdaq up 52 points (+0.69%)

Today’s analytical environment is anything but simple. Both bulls and bears can very well argue their cases without ever coming close to any sort of a consensus.

For instance, while the Dow/S&P remain range bound and far from their all time highs, the Russell/Nasdaq are either hitting or near their respective all time highs.

Undoubtedly followed by an uncomfortable Booyyyaaahhh screams coming out of Jim Cramer’s CNBC studio.

At the same time the valuations are mind boggling. Forget about Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E of 33 (arguably the highest in history), the Russell 2000 is selling at 100+ times earnings. Much more, about 150+ if we take out certain accounting gimmicks.

Paging Warren Buffett…….is that a good value? 

We pray that Mr. Buffett does not see this silly question as his older hearth might not be able to take it, but the real concern remains.

No matter what the bulls say we are in a massive bubble of historic proportions. When the history books are written future generations of investors will laugh at fools and robo-machines paying 100+ time highly speculative earnings.

Further, the divergences we are seeing between highly speculative indices and their more established cousins are too be expected as the specs do tend to peak after major indices put in their respective tops.

Perhaps no amount of financial analysis can summarize today’s environment better than the picture below.

If you would like to find out what happens next and most importantly WHEN, please CLICK HERE

– State of the Market Address:

• The Dow is back below 25,000
• Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 32.14. Slightly off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
• Weekly RSI at 50 – neutral. Daily RSI is at  44 – neutral.
• Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 19,500 today (on weekly).
• Weekly Stochastics at  51  – neutral. Daily at 48 – neutral.
• NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -5 – Neutral.
• Commercial VIX interest is now net neutral.
• Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have, more or less, shifted back to a net short position.  For now, the Dow is net neutral, the S&P is at 2.5X net short, Russell 2000 is 4X net short and the Nasdaq is 2X net long.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

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ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it. 

– State of the Market Address:

• The Dow is back below 25,000
• Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 32.34. Slightly off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
• Weekly RSI at 54 – neutral. Daily RSI is at  54 – neutral.
• Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 19,500 today (on weekly).
• Weekly Stochastics at  57  – neutral. Daily at 72 – neutral.
• NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +1 – Neutral.
• Commercial VIX interest is now net neutral.
• Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have, more or less, shifted back to a net short position.  For now, the Dow is net neutral, the S&P is at 2.5X net short, Russell 2000 is 4X net short and the Nasdaq is 2X net long.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

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ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it. 

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the Wilshire 5000.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

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ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it. 

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the Wilshire 5000.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

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ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.