– State of the Market Address:

• The Dow is back above 24,000
• Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 31.63 Slightly off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
• Weekly RSI at 50 – neutral. Daily RSI is at  47 – neutral.
• Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 19,000 today (on weekly).
• Weekly Stochastics at  18  – oversold. Daily at 36 – neutral.
• NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +15 Neutral.
• Commercial VIX interest is now 38K contracts net short.
• Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have, more or less, shifted back into a net bearish position.  For now, the Dow is 2X net short, the S&P is at 5X net short, Russell 2000 is 4X net short and the Nasdaq is neutral.

Having said that, if you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

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ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it. 

– State of the Market Address:

• The Dow is back below 24,000
• Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 31.55 Slightly off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
• Weekly RSI at 46 – neutral. Daily RSI is at  38 – neutral.
• Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 19,000 today (on weekly).
• Weekly Stochastics at  12  – oversold. Daily at 21 – oversold.
• NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -36 Neutral.
• Commercial VIX interest is now 38K contracts net short.
• Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have, more or less, shifted back into a net bearish position.  For now, the Dow is 2X net short, the S&P is at 5X net short, Russell 2000 is 4X net short and the Nasdaq is neutral.

Having said that, if you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

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ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it. 

Today Amazon (AMZN) is being celebrated as one of the most successful companies of all time. Some even believe that the company will reach the magical $1 Trillion threshold first. All of this while Jeff Bezos basks in the light of being a brilliant businessman and the world’s richest man.

What if all of the above is an illusion perpetuated by the FED. What if Amazon shouldn’t even be in business considering its fundamental weakness. That is the issue David Stockman explores in his recent article.

The Donald’s Blind Squirrel Nails An Acorn

Amazon (AMZN) is a monstrous predator enabled by the state, but Amazon’s outrageous postal subsidy—-a $1.46 gift card from the USPS stabled on each box—-isn’t the half of it.

The real crime here is that Amazon has been exempted from making a profit, and the culprit is the Federal Reserve’s malignant regime of Bubble Finance. The latter has destroyed financial discipline entirely and turned the stock market into the greatest den of speculation in human history.

That’s why Bezos can kill established businesses with impunity. The casino allows him to run a pernicious business model based on “price to destroy”, rather than price for profit and a return on capital.

Needless to say, under a regime of sound money and honest capital markets Amazon would be a far more benign economic creature. That’s because no real investors would value AMZN’s money-loosing e-Commerce business at $540 billion—-nor even a small fraction of that after 25-years of profitless growth.

The above is a dead on analysis of the subject matter. David continues….

There you have it. As the third great bubble of this century has accelerated towards its blow-off top, the robo-machines and momo traders have turned absolutely rabid, thereby enabling Bezos to go flat-out berserk in pursuit of growth at any cost.

And why not. At the end of the mini-correction in February 2016 Amazon’s market cap was $230 billion, but just 25 months later it was worth $775 billion at its March 12  peak.

That staggering $545 billion gain in market cap had absolutely nothing to do with financial performance, of course. Operating free cash flow was a meager $6.4 billion during 2017 and had been $6.6 billion two years earlier.

That is to say, AMZN was valued at a frisky 35X free cash flow in early 2016 and a completely insane 121X a few weeks ago. The fact that Bezos’ net worth exploded by $100 billion during that same 25 month interval perhaps explains why even the Donald found his acorn.

As is evident, a much more sinister truth lies below the surface of this incredible story. Amazon’s growth and success story was largely based on unlimited supply of free and/or speculative money the FED has pumped into the system. Without it, proper valuation rules would apply and the company would undoubtedly collapse long ago.

As crazy as it may sound the above is a symptom of a sick overall market and not Amazon in particular. That is to say, the above fundamental valuation metrics, or them being completely out of sync with reality, apply to the overall stock market.

As a result, it is just a matter of time before the whole thing implodes. If you would like to find out exactly when this collapse will happen, please Click Here

Now, back out our weekly stock market update.

– State of the Market Address:

• The Dow is back above 24,000
• Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 31.85 Slightly off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
• Weekly RSI at 48 – neutral. Daily RSI is at  39 – neutral.
• Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 19,000 today (on weekly).
• Weekly Stochastics at 23  – oversold. Daily at 24 – oversold.
• NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -36 Neutral.
• Commercial VIX interest is now 38K contracts net short.
• Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have, more or less, shifted back into a net bearish position.  For now, the Dow is 2X net short, the S&P is at 5X net short, Russell 2000 is 4X net short and the Nasdaq is neutral.

Having said that, if you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

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ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.