5/17/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 183 points (-1.03%) and the Nasdaq down 60 points (-1.25%). 

Before we get to that, consider the following.

• There’s another sign the US could be headed for recession
• Get ready for return of volatility: Bernstein CIO
• By this measure, the S&P 500 is overvalued by 72%

“The reality is, there should be a relationship between GDP growth and profit growth, and that has largely been absent. We’ve been supporting profits growth with things like share buybacks and other unsustainable factors, and fooling ourselves into thinking that that’s actually sustainable profits. What this is pointing out is that… we are paying too much for the growth that we can expect to get out of the S&P 500,”

Now, let’s take a look at the following valuation metric. Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E Ratio.

Coincidentally, both metrics tend to agree. The market is overvalued by 50-75%.

Now, an argument can be made that today’s zero interest rates, future earnings, lower anticipated dollar, etc…. justify current valuation levels. I don’t believe that such a “This Time Is Different” notion is appropriate here. Today’s environment is NOT that different.

Long-term metrics that measure internal health and valuation levels of the market agree. The overall stock market is in a clear bubble territory. Reminiscent of the 1929, 2000 and 2007 tops.  If so, long-term investors should anticipate no further gains from this point on. If anything, they should prepare for a big drop…..if history is any guide. Invest accordingly.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 17th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

5/16/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 175 points (+1.00%) and the Nasdaq up 58 points (1.22%)

Over the last couple of weeks we have witness a number of headlines from the industry heavyweights.

• First, Carl Icahn revealed that he liquidated his entire Apple position. Something that we predicted on this blog exactly a year ago. Billionaire Icahn Exits Apple Stake After Three Years
• But that wasn’t enough. Mr. Icahn went from being net long to an extremely short position at about 150% net short. As was shown on this blog about a week ago Carl Icahn Is Betting Big on a Stock Market Crash

But here is where it gets interesting. Warren Buffett is buying whatever Icahn is selling.

• Warren Buffett buys stake in Apple
• Buffett is bullish on America

Who is right? 

Both are. I believe it would be little unfair to compare what Mr. Icahn is doing to what Mr. Buffett is doing. It is a bit like comparing oranges to avocados.

First, Mr. Buffett takes an extremely long-term approach. He doesn’t necessarily care what the stock market will do this year or the next. It is more like a 5-20 year time frame. Second, by this point Mr. Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are the stock market. Entirely too big and slow to move in and out.

Mr. Icahn on the other hand plays an entirely different game. He is a speculator who is small enough, in relative terms, to have the ability to move in and out at his heart’s content. When he sees short-term opportunities present themselves, he takes them.

And that’s the difference. At least based on my analysis. Carl Icahn sees the market a lot lower over the next 12 months. Mr. Buffett might see the same thing, but he is building his positions out with a much longer time frame in mind. Invest accordingly.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 16th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

5/13/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 185 points (-1.05%) and the Nasdaq down 20 points (-0.41%) 

If you follow mainstream financial media, apparently there is a “no brainier…. sure thing” kind of a trade out there. That is, to short the USD and to go long Gold.

• Gold has entered a new bull market: JPMorgan
• Sell the almighty dollar even as retail sales shine

“We’re recommending our clients to position for a new and very long bull market for gold,” JPMorgan Private Bank’s Solita Marcelli said Tuesday on CNBC’s “ Futures Now .” After seeing three back-to-back years of losses, the precious metal has rallied 20 percent in 2016. And that’s just the start of the next leg higher, according to Marcelli. “$1,400 is very much in the cards this year.”

I am not sure about you, but I wouldn’t be too keen on executing this “brain dead” trade just yet. Gold technically remains in a long-term bear market. Its recent rally hasn’t confirmed any sort of a breakout. The same applies to the USD…..in reverse.  But I have been telling you a little secret over the last few weeks. Here it is again….Gold Hasn’t Bottomed Yet, But We Know Exactly Where It Will

Now, let’s talk about 9/11 for a second and the US trying to pick a fight with the wrong country.

• Saudi officials were ‘supporting’ 9/11 hijackers, commission member says
• FBI has 80,000 files on possible Saudi links to 9/11 – report
• Putin: Russia will consider tackling NATO missile defense threat
• Russia speaks of nuclear war as US opens missile defense system

I am finally rendered speechless. Well, almost. It appears the US Military & Intelligence machine carpet bombed the wrong country in retaliation for 9/11. Or did they? In the meantime, the Obama Administration is hell bent on starting a nuclear war with Russia. As has been described on this blog so many times before. But do not worry, transgender folk will finally get to use the right restroom, perhaps even before we are all vaporized into the next dimension.

And finally, to Mr. Trump. Earlier in the week I shared a staggering prediction with you. Allow me to repeat in this week’s update……

To be clear, I am no longer affiliated with any political party nor do I support anyone.

With that in mind, our primary stock market timing and mathematical model yielded an important projection. It gave us a very clear sign that Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States.

Unfortunately, I cannot go into details of my projection, due to the risk of jeopardizing our primary premium subscriber forecast. All I can say is this. Our mathematical work and its application to the stock market lines us perfectly with what Mr. Trump has outlined in his campaign. And that can only lead to one conclusion. He will execute on his promises as the next President, unifying our long-term projections with his real world outcome.

It is my intention to reference back to this post in November and to proclaim “I told you so”.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 13th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Well, at least according to the Brits.

You be the judge as we start our day with a good laugh.

Mirror: Vladimir Putin’s all-female ‘miniskirt army’ display their strength in sexist military parade

Russian president Vladimir Putin unleashed his ‘miniskirt army’ for the world to see in a sexist military parade that will likely stun its enemies. The event in Moscow’s Red Square this morning showcased Russia’s modern military war machine – yet the parade of women looked distinctly out of date. Despite the strength of force on show with jets, air defence missile systems and nuclear weapons aplenty, it was the female touch that garnered most attention.

At least they got one thing right. You don’t want to mess with the Russian women.

I don’t know, but it appears that the anti Russian/Putin propaganda, particularly in the U.K., is getting a tad out of hand. And God forbid if you watch either the BBC or CNN. According to them a number of Russian tank divisions are getting ready to do a Blitzkrieg all the way to the Portuguese seashore.

Never forget, the first step in any war is to demonize your enemy. Corporate western media is doing quite a nice job in that regard.

5/11/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 216 points (-1.20%) and the Nasdaq down 49 points (-1.02%) 

Let’s get straight to the point.

Chart #1: Inflation Adjusted S&P. Despite all of the hoopla about all time highs, the Dow/S&P are sitting at double tops achieved in early 2000. Over 16 years ago. Inflation adjusted that is. The Nasdaq is still down 20%. You would have been the smartest person in the room if you bought 20-30 year Treasury in 2000 yielding 4.5%.

Chart #2: Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio. Shows the stock market that is selling at the third highest valuation level in history. Right behind 1929 and 2000 tops and on par with 2007 top. Do I really have to remind you what had happened shortly after those valuation peaks reversed?

Where am I going with this?

I will let John Hussman tell you.

John Hussman: Expensive Stocks Will Lead to Losses, Paltry Returns

“From present valuations, a market loss of that magnitude would not be a worst-case scenario, but merely a run-of-the-mill completion of the current market cycle. Since the dividend yield on the S&P 500 exceeds 2 percent here, that also implies that we fully expect the S&P 500 Index to trade at a lower level in 10-12 years than it does today.”

Most bulls are extremely happy with what Janet Yellen and the FED where able to accomplish over the last few weeks. Particularly, Why Short Sellers Should Send Janet Yellen a “Thank You” Card

Well, they shouldn’t be. All they have done is set up a massive “bull trap” in what is otherwise the last stage of a secular bear market that started in 2000. And considering valuation/earnings imbalances we are witnessing today, long side investors might be in for a beating of a lifetime.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 11th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

5/10/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 222 points (+1.26%) and the Nasdaq up 60 points (+1.26%) 

When it comes to investing it pays to follow the “smart money” or ultra successful investors with a great track record. With that in mind, consider the following……

• Carl Icahn Is Betting Big on a Stock Market Crash

That means that the value of Icahn’ s short positions—or financial assets that his funds have borrowed rather than bought—is worth 149% more than the value of his long positions.

Carl Icahn is no longer talking. He is quite literally putting money where his mouth is. And doing so in a big way with 149% net short position. I will tell you this. I would be quite uncomfortable betting against Mr. Icahn here.

• Druckenmiller: These 2 charts show how ‘unproductive’ and ‘reckless’ companies have been

Legendary hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller laid out a gloomy message for the market at the Sohn Conference last week. The Duquesne Capital founder said that the “bull market has exhausted itself” after eight years of a “radical monetary experiment. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy over the last eight years has led to “unproductive” and “reckless” corporate behavior, Druckenmiller said. The doves keep asking ‘where is the evidence of mal-investment?’ Druckemiller said. He proceded to show a chart of US non-financials’ year-on-year change in net debt versus operating cash flow, as measured by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda).

Mr. Druckenmiller has been very vocal over the last few months, warning investors that we are at the end of this crazy FED induced expansionary cycle. A cycle that will implode on itself. I would have to agree with his assessment

• Steve Wynn lashes out on ‘unconscionable manipulation’ in the stock market

 “The other day I was watching the stock open up, and it went up on share volumes of a few thousand shares. I mean, every trade was a tick up. That’s not the way it should operate in an honestly or intelligently run exchange. But that’s the thing, all those guys sold their dark pools and their order flow and the positioning on the floors of the servers to the high frequency traders. And it’s made a couple of guys that I’m friendly with very rich because they are high-frequency traders. But don’t respect the activity, and I’m severely critical of it. And I don’t mind saying so, either.”

If you have been investing for 10+ years you know that today’s markets are highly distorted. You might not be able to prove it, nor really explain how it works, but the market is indeed being heavily manipulated. As Steve Wynn explains in the article above. Now, most investors would assume that this brings stability, but they would be wrong. On the contrary, such distortions cause massive volatility spikes when the proverbial “s#&*” hits the fan.

Soros, Rogers and quite a few other successful money managers have expressed similar points of view. The question becomes, have they all suddenly gone insane or are they seeing the exact same thing I have discussed on this blog for over a year?

I will let you decide.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 10th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!