InvestWithAlex.com 

Should You Start Buying Bonds – Hint, Not YET

1/29/2024 – Another positive day with the Dow Jones up 224 points (+0.59%) and the Nasdaq up 172 points (+1.12%) 

The stock market continues to perform as anticipated/projected.

Some investors believe this will be easy…..

Investors parked in cash should consider bonds before the Fed pivots, Nuveen says

    • Bonds have been rallying in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s pivot to rate cuts this year, but today’s higher yields still leave room for buying opportunities, according to Nuveen’s chief investment officer.
    • “Many investors spooked by” the painful repricing of bonds over the past two years “sold their bond positions and piled their money into cash and cash equivalents,” Nuveen CIO Saira Malik, wrote in a Monday client note.
    • Assets in money-market funds have ballooned to about $5.96 trillion over roughly the past year, even with a $1.4 billion decrease seen in the past week, according to data from the Investment Company Institute.

Not so fat.

Our latest 10 Year Note analysis was just posted and you won’t believe what happens next. Let’s just say Bill Ackman might have covered his position too soon.

10- Year Treasury Index (TNX) – UPDATE
Date: January 9th, 2024

Our mathematical and timing work for TNX suggests the following:

      • TNX is moving towards its next half-cycle TOP which is expected to arrive in early XXXX.  We have multiple strong TIME clusters confirming this interest rate high by hitting around XXXX of 2024.
      • Our calculations suggest TNX will top out at XXXX (+/- 0.1%). They also suggest October of 2023 top was NOT the top.
      • Once the top is in TNX will fall into its next mid-cycle bottom scheduled to arrive around XXXX of 2025.
      • And while it is too early to calculate how low the 10-Year will go, a hit around XXXX is probable.

In summary, our price and time calculations suggest the top for TNX is not yet in. It is scheduled to arrive in XXXX of 2024 and top out at around XXXX. Then be cut in half by XXXX 2025. This is consistent with our overall stock market forecast.

IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO FIND OUT EXACT TIME AND PRICE PARAMETERS ABOVE -PLEASE CLICK HERE

Long Live The USD

1/22/2024 – Another positive day with the Dow Jones up 138 points (+0.36%) and the Nasdaq up 49 points (+0.32%) 

No changes to our prior or weekly updates. Longer-term, the market is playing out exactly as it should or as per our overall forecast.

The only additional data point we have has to do with our short-term Intraday calculations. We have a short-term point of force arriving on XXXX (+/- 1 trading day). This point might cause one more pullback before we make that final run higher towards the targets outlined below. We will identify this point with more precision as we get closer. Click Here to see the rest………

Most investors have presumed the US Dollar will decline going forward.  Its a sure bet if you consider those FED Rate cuts everyone is talking about. Case and point……

Dollar Longs Are Steadily Throwing The Towel In

    • Speculators are reducing the number of currencies they are short versus the dollar, as well as increasing the size of their bets against it. The real yield curve shows that the dollar should trend lower over the coming months. The dollar may have had a good start to the year, with the DXY up almost 2%, but speculators appear to have little faith this strength will continue.

Our mathematical and timing work for DXY is somewhat clear. The US Dollar strength will increase throughout the year.  And YES, it will eventually collapse, but not quite yet.

Here is why ………. Fed cuts or not…..

Take a look at the DXY in 2008 or any other major pullback in the market. Typically, the US Dollar becomes stronger as money flows out of the market looking for safety. Considering today’s massive imbalances, it would be prudent to assume the inflows into the DXY will be significant when the next bear market hits – something that we expect to happen very soon by the way.

So, in typical market’s fashion the DXY might do something that no one is expecting it to do. Run up to an all time high. Please review our US Dollar forecast in our membership section for more information and exact Time/Price targets. Click Here

Regional Banks Are Set To SURGE !!! Wait, What???

Small/Regional Banks ETF (IAT) – Update
Date of Analysis: January 17th, 2024

We had an exact hit on our prior bottom projection in May of 2023.  Going forward, our timing and mathematical work for IAT suggests the following:

  • As our prior forecast suggested, there was an exact hit on our bottom target of $30 (+/- $1) on May 4th, 2023.
  • Now, since we have the exact bottom confirmed, we have more accurate top projections.
  • Note that we are still within the variance of the top composite cycle. There is a strong cluster arriving on XXXX (+/- 2 weeks).
  • Precise mathematical calculations lead to $86 +/- $2 target.

In summary, we have an important divergence between our top TIME projection and our top PRICE target of $86. Meaning……..Click Here

Having said that, if you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, please Click Here.