We executed a trade in the US Treasury (TLT) a few weeks ago at $128.50  Find out what that trade was (buy, sell, long or short) and why by Clicking Here

We executed a trade in the USD (DXY) two weeks ago at $94.5000  Find out what that trade was (buy, sell, long or short) and why by Clicking Here

By now most bears are a laughing stock of the investment community. After all, nothing can possibly stop this stock market advance. Even though valuations find themselves at historic all time highs.

I mean, seriously, even President Trump himself has acknowledged that this market is one directional by taking complete ownership of it. What can possibly go wrong – right?

Well, here are a few reasons you might want to consider.

3 reasons a stock-market correction is coming in late summer or early fall

1. The Transports are diverging from the Industrials. (Chart Above)

The Dow Jones Transportation Average DJT, +0.30%  is down almost 6% from its mid-July all-time high through Wednesday. That’s no catastrophe, but it’s a striking divergence from the records being clocked by the other major averages. It’s also a warning flag, since Dow Theory holds that the Transports must confirm the Dow Industrials’ move to all-time highs for the bull to continue.

Known as the Dow Theory non-confirmation. Take a look at the chart above. Not only are the Transports not confirming, they have put in a long-term double top formation. Unable to breakout above 2014 highs. This is a very weak formation and something definitely doesn’t smell right here.

2. Earnings aren’t giving stocks the pop they used to. 

So far, the second-quarter earnings season has been very good. As of last Friday, 73% of the companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings beat Wall Street’s earnings and revenue estimates, according to FactSet. Blended earnings growth is a solid 9.1%.

3. Washington faces big gridlock. 

Anyone who thought that Republican control of the White House and both houses of Congress would end Washington gridlock and make the federal government function smoothly must have been smoking something. After the health-care fiasco, how can anyone expect this fractured Congress to do anything big?

We have been discussing this for some time now. It can be argued that the stock market is pricing in a massive tax cut and deregulation. Hence the rally we saw off of November 2016 lows. Yet, and as we have seen thus far, all of that might be nothing but a big pipe dream as President Trump has been unable to get anything of significance passed.

Tax cuts? To be honest I would be surprised if they can get the debt ceiling raised. A major bloodbath associated with Washington’s gridlock might indeed be on the way.Invest accordingly.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

We executed a trade in British Pound (GBP/USD) on 7/31/2017 at $1.3200  Find out what that trade was (buy, sell, long or short) and why by Clicking Here

At Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E Ratio of 30, mind you, arguably the highest  valuation level in history if we adjust for 2000 tech distortions. Understandably, he didn’t see one in either 2000 or 2007, but let’s save that for later.

He does see a massive bubble in the bond market that is bound to implode. What he talks about is both complicated and in our view rather foolish. Let’s explore.

Greenspan Sees No Stock Excess, Warns of Bond Market Bubble

“By any measure, real long-term interest rates are much too low and therefore unsustainable,” the former Federal Reserve chairman, 91, said in an interview. “When they move higher they are likely to move reasonably fast. We are experiencing a bubble, not in stock prices but in bond prices. This is not discounted in the marketplace.”

Fair enough and we agree. At the same time we wold like to point out that the above distortion is caused entirely by the FED and the policies Alan Greenspan himself developed. Take artificially suppressed interest rates away and the market will find its equilibrium at much higher yields.

“The real problem is that when the bond-market bubble collapses, long-term interest rates will rise,” Greenspan said. “We are moving into a different phase of the economy — to a stagflation not seen since the 1970s. That is not good for asset prices.”

Again, we agree. At the same time, the idiots at the FED have proven to be suicidal in terms of our long-term economic trajectory. Make no mistake, they will be bold enough to go all in one more time. Whether or not they will be successful is a different question.

Stocks, in particular, will suffer with bonds, as surging real interest rates will challenge one of the few remaining valuation cases that looks more gently upon U.S. equity prices, Greenspan argues. While hardly universally accepted, the theory underpinning his view, known as the Fed Model, holds that as long as bonds are rallying faster than stocks, investors are justified in sticking with the less-inflated asset.

Bingo. Bulls have been arguing for some time that today’s low interest rates justify almost infinite valuations. We have argued in the past that is historically incorrect. Yet, the theory sticks.

To quickly summarize, Alan Greenspan believes that today’s low interest rates justify today’s insane valuation levels. Yet, that will not be the case in the future as bond yields surge higher. When that happens, and only then, the stock market will re-price.

And perhaps he is right.

At the same time, the above is not set in stone. For instance, it can be a powerful stock market decline that gets the ball rolling on yields. Regardless of what the FED does. And not the other way around.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

– State of the Market Address:

• The Dow remains well above 21,000.
• Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 30.23  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
• Weekly RSI at 76.00  – overbought. Daily RSI is at 68.55 – neutral.
• Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,850 today (on weekly).
• Weekly Stochastics at 96.00- overbought. Daily at 96.95 -overbought.
• NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +1. Neutral.
• Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest increased somewhat. Now at 90K contracts net long. 
• Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is at 1.5X and the Nasdaq is at 2X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.