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Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 9)

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Continuation of Part 8

Let’s take a look at the real stock market example for clarification.  Let see if we would have been able to identify point E on the chart by using triangulation. As discussed earlier, point E had 4 major 3-DVs associated with it.

1.  AE, value of 23,455. Once again and as discussed earlier, this move was the derivative (square root of 5) of 9,922 move prior to 1994. The more than typical variance of the move was caused by the growth spiral in the market.

2. CE, value of 9,810.  As shown earlier, this move was the derivative (square root of 2) of AC move of 14,100.

3. BE, value of 16,613. As discussed earlier, this move was the derivative (square root of 2) of AB move of 11,832.

4. DE, value of 8,137. From earlier discussion I have shown you that AB+BC=CD+DE=18,293. Therefore, by knowing CD, we would automatically know the value of DE (18,293-10,156)=8,137

To identify point E, well ahead of point E occurring, we would calculate where all of the 3-DVs above come together at one point. Well, a point that makes sense. After performing triangulation calculations and running the circumference of the circle for each 3-DV in question you would realize that they all come together in March of 2009.   

In other words, they all intercept each other in March of 2009, between 6,750 and 6,250 on the DOW. Further,  you would be able to get a visual confirmation that the market is indeed headed towards that same point of force you have identified through using triangulation.

In fact, this particular method has allowed me to confirm my other analysis and has allowed me to identify the March of 2009 bottom (between 6,750 and 6,250) as the highly probable turning point.  I did that in October of 2008, when the DOW was still trading between 10,000-9,000. So, as everyone was losing their minds and predicting the next Great Depression or the end of the world, an analyst familiar with 3-Dimensional analysis would know that a significant turning point is coming up in March of 2009.

Not only that, but an investor familiar with this type of analysis would simple reverse from a short position to a long position at point E to attain maximum benefit. Once the confirmation that the point E was indeed the major turning point arrives, the investor is fully aware that the next BULL move will be a prolonged one. By reallocating capital from the short side to the long side at that instance, one is able achieves maximum profitability.    

In summary, triangulation of 3-DVs allows you to find high probability turning points in 3-Dimensional space. It allows you to confirm the lattice structure if your lattice structure analysis has not advanced to the point of certainty. Further, by having multiple 3-DV’s intersect at the same point in the future, you have a fairly good idea of where the market is headed.   

(Don’t forget that this applies on all time frames).   

To Be Continued…..

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Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 9)

The Secret Behind Obama’s Bubble

Bloomberg writes ” Obama Focuses on Risk of New Bubble Undermining Broad Recovery”

 

President Barack Obama, who took office amid the collapse of the last financial bubble, wants to make sure his economic recovery doesn’t generate the next one.

Obama this month spoke four times in five days of the need to avoid what he called “artificial bubbles,” even in an economy that’s growing at just a 1.7 percent rate and where employment and factory usage remain below pre-recession highs.

 “We have to turn the page on the bubble-and-bust mentality that created this mess,” he said in his Aug. 10 weekly radio address.

Obama’s cautionary notes call attention to the risk that the lessons of the financial crisis, which was spawned by a speculator-driven surge in asset values, will be forgotten, widening the income gap and undermining a broad-based recovery.

“Clearly, this is a growing concern both in the administration and at the Fed,” said Adam Posen, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee.

Not Imminent

That may explain why six years after the housing meltdown ignited the worst recession since the 1930s and vaporized $16 trillion in household wealth, bubble reminders are intruding on Obama’s speeches.

“It’s a legitimate concern from an economic perspective,” says Roberto Perli, a partner in Cornerstone Macro, a Washington economic-research firm, and a former Fed official. “But I don’t think it’s motivated by consideration of imminent risk.”

The U.S. recovery, outpacing Europe and Japan, has created 6.7 million jobs since February 2010. Claims (INJCJC) for jobless benefits fell last week to their lowest level in almost six years. And after a two-decade-long borrowing binge, households have pared their debt burden to mid-1980s levels.

Still, growth has been below historical trend for the past four quarters, according to the ChicagoFederal Reserve Bank’s National Activity Index, a blend of 85 indicators measuring employment, production, housing and consumption.

 

Are you F$&*% kidding me?  He wants to make sure his economic recovery doesn’t generate the next bubble”

obama

I don’t know if I should cry or laugh. I am sorry to break it to you Mr. Obama, but as we stand today, as of August of 2013 we are in the biggest financial bubble of all time. EVER. Bigger than 1929, bigger than 2000 and bigger than 2007/8.

That’s what happens when instead of letting defaults and previous imbalances (credit collapse and real estate) work through the system, you put the pedal to the metal and paper everything over with more money created out of thin air. 

The imbalances are so massive at this point in time,  that pain is simply unavoidable. We have never seen anything like that. The result?  Stagnated and a significant US Stock Market Decline into 2016-2018 bottom. Inflation thereafter.  

What Everybody Is Ought To Know About Obamacare

part-time-jobs

Reuters writes:  Obamacare, tepid U.S. growth fuel part-time hiring

(Reuters) – U.S. businesses are hiring at a robust rate. The only problem is that three out of four of the nearly 1 million hires this year are part-time and many of the jobs are low-paid.

Faltering economic growth at home and abroad and concern that President Barack Obama’s signature health care law will drive up business costs are behind the wariness about taking on full-time staff, executives at staffing and payroll firms say.

Employers say part-timers offer them flexibility. If the economy picks up, they can quickly offer full-time work. If orders dry up, they know costs are under control. It also helps them to curb costs they might face under the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.

Yep, exactly. Companies must be crazy to start hiring full time workers in this environment. The only time it would make sense if the economy is surging higher and unemployment is low. Neither one is the case, nor will it be any time soon.

This can all become a less-than-virtuous cycle as new employees, who are mainly in lower wage businesses such as retail and food services, do not have the disposable income to drive demand for goods and services.

Some economists, however, say the surge in reliance on part-time workers will fade as the economy strengthens and businesses gain more certainty over how they will be impacted by Obamacare.

Keep dreaming. The only place this economy is going is down the toilet. You cannot define the law of physics and mathematics forever.  

Executives at several staffing firms told Reuters that the law, which requires employers with 50 or more full-time workers to provide healthcare coverage or incur penalties, was a frequently cited factor in requests for part-time workers. A decision to delay the mandate until 2015 has not made much of a difference in hiring decisions, they added.

“Us and other people are hiring part-time because we don’t know what the costs are going to be to hire full-time,” said Steven Raz, founder of Cornerstone Search Group, a staffing firm in Parsippany, New Jersey. “We are being cautious.”

Everyone knows the costs of hiring full-time right now. That cost is “Too Expensive”

Raz said his company started seeing a rise in part-time positions in late 2012 and the trend gathered steam early this year. He estimates his firm has seen an increase of between 10 percent and 15 percent compared with last year.

Other staffing firms have also noted a shift.

“They have put some of the full-time positions on hold and are hiring part-time employees so they won’t have to pay out the benefits,” said Client Staffing Solutions’ Darin Hovendick. “There is so much uncertainty. It’s really tough to design a budget when you don’t know the final cost involved

Rest of the article here:

The bottom line is this. This Obamacare law is idiotic.  Any law that adds costs and uncertainty to any company in a bear market or downshifting economy is simply stupid. The output is very clear…. 

  • Companies will hire very few  full time workers.
  • Companies will start firing full time workers and replacing them with part time workers.  So, even if you have a stable full time job now (in the private sector), count your lucky stars if you still have one 5-10 years from now.

Simple as that. America is about to become a nation of part timers. Thank you  President Obama. 

Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 8)

triangulation-investwithalex

Continuation of part 7

But what if the forecast above is incorrect?

As I have mention so many times before in this book, no analyst or investor should look at any forecast in absolutely certain terms.  Until the lattice structure of the market is fully understood, there is always a possibility of being wrong. Unfortunately, understanding the lattice structure of the market is outside the scope of this book.  It is too complex and dynamic to be explained in this relatively short book. Volumes of work must be published before clarity could be obtained. Yet, any analyst willing to put in the work, should be able to determine the underlying structure.

For those unwilling to do the work there are a number of available shortcuts. They are….

Shortcut One:  3 Dimensional Space Triangulation.

Earlier in this book I have mentioned that 3-DV exist on multiple time frames. From hourly to yearly to decades to centuries.  At any given time there are hundreds of various length 3-DV tracing out market points of force (turning points). What I have found in my research over the years is that major turning points in the stock market or individual stocks are never represented by only one 3-DV. In most cases, such points are represented by a number of different 3-DV coming together at a singular turning point. Once again, these multiple 3-DV can range from hourly to centuries long.

Let me give you an example.  As you know, when 3-DV of any length moves in 3-Dimensional space they tend to trace out the circumference of a circle. The radius of a circle represents maximum reach of any given 3-DV. In other words, it represents all possible points on the two dimensional chart where the 3-DV in question can terminate its move.

Further, let’s assume that we are studying five 3-DVs from various points on the stock market chart that have similar termination points. By drawing -OR – calculating their circumferences in either 3-Dimensional space or on 2-Dimensional stock market chart, we will be able to see where those circumferences intersected.  As a rule of thumb, if we have multiple intersection at a singular point of time and price, the probability is high that such point will be a major turning point.  The probability increases further if the market is heading towards such a point.

In simple terms, triangulation allows us to figure out high probability turning points by identifying at what points multiple 3-DVs come together.  By combining this type of analysis with 3-DV lattice structure above we are able to either confirm or increase probability of a turning point.

Let’s take a look at the real stock market example for clarification.  

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Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 8)

Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 7)

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Continuation of part 6

Step #2: Perform analysis of 3-DVs and its derivatives from each point.

For example, let’s take a look at point E.  At point E we can work with 4 different 3-DVs and their derivatives. They include  DE, BE, CE and AE.  Meaning, it is highly probable that EF will be equal to the four 3-DVs above and/or their derivatives.

As mentioned earlier, the 3-DV of EF today is 12,364. If we analyze the four 3-DVs above, we will soon find out that 3 different numbers closely resemble today’s value of 12,364. They are

  • DE 14,094
  • AE 13,542
  • CE 13,873

All other 3-DVs and their derivatives either fall short or are outside the scope of our analysis. You will notice that the value AE is the closest one to our present value of 12,364. That basically means the market is not yet done moving up.  It also means that once the value AE 13,542 is reached, it is highly probable that it will mark the turning point in the stock market.

Further,  as of today the value EF consists of 2 input variables. Time Value of 7,742 trading hours and Price Value of 9,641 points.  Let’s further assume that based on our research we believe that March of 2014 will be the top of the bull market and/or the move EF.  This gives us an additional 80 trading days or 520 trading hours.  By adding 520 trading hours to 7,742 trading hours we get all necessary information to make an accurate estimate of the bull market top.

In addition,  we can estimate how much the market will move up between now and March of 2014. We simply adjust our 3-DV equation to look like this

SQRT (8,262^2 + X^2 ) = 13,542

When we solve the equation for X, the X = 10,730. This value represents the PRICE portion of the equation at the completion of the move.  With today’s PRICE value being at 9,641 this means the market is likely to go up another 1,089 points (10,730 – 9,641) between today and March of 2014.

Think about this for a second and how powerful this simple calculation is. If you got your lattice structure figured out and/or you know the next 3-DV move,  you can predict with 100% certainty exactly when the stock market will top out. Not only when, but exactly where. To the day and to the point. So, while everyone else is playing the guessing game of how long this bull market will continue, you know the answer well ahead of that turning point taking place.  You know that you must hold for another 4 months in order to realize the maximum gain and then simply reverse to short position to benefit from the upcoming bear market decline.  Amazing, isn’t it?

But what if the forecast above is incorrect?

To Be Continued…..

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Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 7)

Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 6)

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Continuation of part 5

7. The move AB was an exact square and continuation of another 3-DV prior to 1994 bottom. This move was a perfect square. The market moved exactly 8,296 points in exactly 8,437 trading hours. Giving us a 3-DV of 11,832.  This 3-DV was identical to the actual top set on January 14th, 2000 of 11,854. Proving, once again, how accurate this analysis can be.  

8.  Finally, the move BC was the derivative from the move AB. If you divide 11,832 by the square root of 3 you end up with a value of 6,831. With move BC having a 3-DV of 6,840, it gives us 0% variance.  As 2003 secondary bottom was approaching an analyst using 3-DV analysis would be very well aware that a turning point was coming up. Using the techniques above the analyst would be about 10 trading points away from the actual bottom.

This concludes the analysis and explanation of the 3-DV moves above.  The explanation above went over every single value and showed you how they can be used in order to predict the markets with great accuracy. Going further and by understanding the lattice structure within the market you would be able to know precise angles and directional moves of any upcoming market or individual stock moves.  For the first time attaining the ability to predict the markets in both time and price. On any time frame.  From daily resolution to decades from now.  

This section is written on November 29th,  2013 with the DOW at 16,097

If you follow my daily blog you are very well aware that my mathematical work is predicting a severe bear market between 2014 and 2017. This bear market will represent the final leg down of the bear market that started in early 2000. This brings us to point F on the chart above  and further explanation on how to predict exact turning points by using 3-DV analysis. Please keep in mind that point F represents the actual turning point in 2014 and the ushering in of the bear market leg. It hasn’t happened yet.  We are predicting the future here.  Let’s take a look.

Step #1:  Measure 3-DV from all major turning points (E, D, C, B and A)  to today’s DOW close.  They are..

  • EF: 12,364
  • DF: 10,610
  • CF: 20,190/20,900
  • BF: 24,100
  • AF:  34,750

Step #2: Calculate all derivative values for the numbers above.

To Be Continued…..

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Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 6)

Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 5)

 

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Continuation of part 4. 

3.  We have already mentioned this earlier in the book, but AB + Bc  and CD + DE are equal. Let’s take another look. (11,832+6,483 =  18,315)  and  (10,156 + 8,137 = 18,293). Please note that we are using 2002 actual bottom for point c instead of 2003 secondary bottom. Also note, that the variance is just 22 points over the 15 year period of time. That constitutes a margin of variance equal to just 3 trading days or a few hundred points directional move.

Also, note that if you divide 18,300  by the square root of 5 you get a value of 8,184. Which was the value of the move between 2007 top and 2009 bottom. Further, if you multiply BD of 12,815 by square root of 2 you will get a value of 18,123 which is identical to the value above.  Once again, if you know the structure of this move and lattice structure associated with the market you have the ability to identify every single turning point in the market over the last 15 years.

All you have to do at those points is to rotate your portfolio position from long to short and from short to long in order to make a killing and outperform the market by a large margin. It is as simple as that.

4.  The move CE of 9,810 and the move CD is the continuation of the move AC represented by 14,100. If you divide 14,100 by the square root of 2 you get a value of 9,970. The actual move between CE ended up being 9,810 giving us the variance of only 1.6%.  The actual move between CD ended up being 10,156 giving the variance of only 1.8%. When you combine this knowledge with the previous 3-DV already discussed you get another confirmation that March of 2009 will be a solid bottom for the stock market and that the 2007 top has been reached.

As such, when everyone is freaking out about the 2007-2009 decline and predicting the end of the world as we know it, you would know that the market will turn around in March of 2009 and begin a multiyear rally.

5. When you multiple vale AB of 11,832 by the square root of 2 you end up with a  3-DV value of 16,733. The actual move between 2000 top and 2009 bottom or the move BE was exactly 16,613. That is a variance of just 0.7%.  Again, the move AB predicted the move BE and 2009 bottom 9 years in advance. Giving you another confirmation point that March of 2009 is an exact bottom and a major turning point.

6. The move BD of 12,815 was the derivative of the move AB + Bc of 18,315.  When you divide 18,315 by the square root of 2 you end up with a 3-DV value of 12,950. This gives us a variance of just 1%.

To Be Continued….

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Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 4)

 growth spiral investwithalex

Let’s analyze all of our 3-DV so you can see the amazing accuracy available with this technique. As a quick not, please understand that all 3-DV starting at point A have their origin long before point A was reached. In other words,  all 3-DV that we see on the chart above are the direct result of the 3-DV values that have preceded it prior to 1994. Let’s take a more in-depth look.  

The value of importance prior to point A was a 3-DV of 9,922. Representing a 3-Dimensional move between 1988 bottom and 1994 top.  Let’s take a look at that number and its derivatives to see how many other 3-DV values we can explain.

(Original 3-DV 9,922)

Multiply

Divide

SQRT 2

14,031

7,015

SQRT 3

17,185

5,728

SQRT 5

22,186

4,437

2X

19,844

4961

1.  Immediately we see the move AC equal to 14,100 or the square root of 2 move.  With only 0.4% variance between forecasted value and real value it is an exact hit. By knowing this number and lattice structure described before you could have identified  this turning point 9 years before its actual occurrence. Most certainly you would have been able to identify 2003 bottom by looking at this number at the time.

2. The next two numbers that are associated with the original value of 9,922 are the AE 23,455 and AD 23,610. These values are represented by square root of 5. Even though the variance is a little bit higher, at 5.6%,*** these numbers are once again responsible for exact hits on both the 2007 top and the 2009 bottom.   Once the lattice structure is understood these inflection points could have been predicted all the way back in 1994 with exact accuracy.  Certainly an analyst studying the market could have identified these points as they would have approached the turning points above.

*** It is important to understand that most of the moves above are exact. The large variance (or perceived variance) of 5.6%, for example, is caused by the growth spiral developing in the stock market. As I have mentioned before the stock market is a natural and dynamic growth system. Meaning not only does it move in a predictable way, but it also grows and changes energy levels as it moves along. For example, the energy level of 1860 or 1920 or 1960 is completely different from the energy level today.  This part of analysis might be discussed in future publications for clarification. For now, growth spiral cause for variance will simply be mentioned.

To Be Continued…. 

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Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 3)

Continuation of part 2

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For simplicity sake, here is all you need to know. When we apply lattice structure thinking to the existing stock market structure, we soon realize that the most common derivatives are the 2x and the square roots of 2, 3 and 5. The next step in our analysis would be to calculate these derivatives for each one of our 3-DV determined above.  We do so for both upside and downside by multiplying and dividing each value.  The calculations are very simple.

For example, lets figure out derivative for the move AC of 14,100

(ORIGINAL 3-DV 14,100)

Multiply

Divide

SQRT 2

19,940

9,970

SQRT 3

24,421

8,140

SQRT 5

31,528

6,305

2X

28,200

7,050

 

What do these numbers represent?

They represent all possibilities of the next move.  Basically, we know that the next move (starting at point C) will either be 14,100 or the other 8 numbers representing  the derivatives of the original number above. This helps us determine the next turning point with stunning accuracy. For instance, please note that the move CE  (the move between 2003 bottom and 2009 bottom) was exactly 9,810 points. The square root of 2 derivative above stands at 9,970. This represents a 1.6% variance from the actual value.  Fairly accurate if you ask me.  Particularly if you know the exact structure and the direction of the move years before it happens.

Further, at the time of this writing (November 26th, 2013) the 3-DV of the move CF (2003 bottom to 2013/2014 top) is sitting at 20,050 and thus far has had an exact hit of 19,935 if you take 2013 September top into consideration. While I will not make exact predictions in this book, this gives you an indication of how powerful this 3-Dimensional analysis can be.

For example, in my other writings I have clearly indicated that the 2013/2014 tops will be the completion of the bull move that started at 2009 bottom.  After the move completes itself we should experience a 3 year bear market that will take us into the 2017 bottom. As you now can see, by looking at the market through the 3-DV analysis we can predict with great accuracy when the top of 2013/2014 will take place.  For example, just by looking at this one 14,100 3-DV alone (or its derivative of 19,940), we know that the market is toping right now and should reverse itself shortly.   

To Be Continued…..

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Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 2)

Stock Market And 3-Dimensional Analysis (Part 2)

latice structure

Continuation of Part 1. 

Let me show you what I mean. 

The Right Way:

SQRT (6838^2+7510^2)=10,156 (3-DV)

As you can see, in this case price variable energy level matches the time energy level.  In simple terms, they match each other, yielding a highly relevant 3-DV in the process.

The Wrong Way: (using daily time variable)

SQRT(6,838^2 +1,155^2) = 6,935 (3-DV)

In this case the price side of the equation overwhelms the time part of the equation.  Depicting price and time as not squared.  The end product is the 3-DV that is almost identical to the price move itself. Yielding a 3-DV value that is not applicable for further 3-Dimensional analysis.

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The bottom line is, to perform viable 3-DV calculations we have to square the chart or be in the same range of variance.  It is also important to note that at times the market (or individual stocks) will exhibit violent up or down moves, rendering squaring of the chart impossible.  In such a case and as a rule of thumb, use the prior measurement TIME variable. For example, if the price moved up 1,000 points in 20 trading hours, continue to use trading hour variable if you have used this variable in the time frame directly preceding this sharp/powerful move.

How To Predict Future Moves By Using Existing 3-DV

Once again, if we know the 3-DV of any move we can predict the next move with great accuracy.  It will either be identical to or a derivative of the move preceding it.  For example, looking at the chart above, if we know that AC is 14,100 we can very well forecast that CE will be equal to 9,810. Let’s take a closer look and perform a complete 3-DV analysis of the chart above.

At first glance, there isn’t that much synchronicity of the 3-DV calculated on the chart above. Other than the matching two 23,610 and 23,455 values, the rest of the values do not warrant any sort of uniformity.  The question is why?

If you remember, I have mentioned earlier that as the stock market moves through 3-Dimensional space it continues to trace out mathematical points of force.  Those point of force represent market turning points, but what are they really?  Without going into too much detail these points represent lattice  structures moving through 3-Dimensional space. We know from Chemistry that every element (or combination of elements) will have its own lattice structure. Same thing with the stock market and individual stocks.  Each individual stock or the overall stock market will have its own lattice structure or points of force associated with them. As the market moves it simply traces out these 3-Dimensional points on the 2-Dimensional stock market chart.

To Be Continued…..

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