Investment Grin Of The Day Google
Investment Grin Of The Day
Investment Grin Of The Day
NATO Finally Releases A Shocking Video Of Russian Atrocities In Ukraine
After months of deliberation and spending close to $1 Trillion the Obama Administration, Pentagon, EU and NATO have decided to finally release a shocking video, proving once and for all, the atrocities committed by Russia against Ukraine. More importantly, this video proves, without a shadow of a doubt that it was Russia and not the above mentioned powers that 1. Destabilized Ukraine and 2. Plunged it into the civil war. When reached for comment, Mr. Putin responded with a simple “I am sorry”.
NATO Releases A Shocking Video Of Russian Atrocities In Ukraine Google
Investment Grin Of The Day
Why China Is Furious With The USA As Well
Continuation from yesterday…….The major point to take away from our Russia Vs. the USA discussion is as follows. Russia is fed up with the US for a number of reasons. First, the Russian leadership and top military commanders see NATO’s expansion up to the Russian border as a declaration of war. The US meddling in Ukraine, Georgia and even Belarus over the last 5 years is a clear indication of that. Second, the US keeps lecturing Russia on what to do and how to do it. Since no one likes being lectured, Putin is not only fed up with the US foreign policy, he is furious with it. His televised speech on March 18th, 2014 proves that without a shadow of a doubt. Finally, with the US hitting Russia with multiple rounds of sanctions throughout 2014, the Russian leadership, media and population clearly decry such actions as a form of economic warfare. Rightfully so.
When we combine the factors above we can safely conclude that the Cold War 2 is now in full swing. What’s more, we can anticipate Putin to remain in power in Russia for as long as he wants. Therefore, for as long as the US continues with this foreign policy against Russia, a policy that is unlikely to change anytime soon, the US relationship with Russia will continue to deteriorate. So much so that at a certain point it will be too late for either party to prevent the Nuclear World War 3 from happening.
China finds itself in a very similar situation. If you have ever been to China, you very well know that Chinese are very proud people. Just as Americans are. Yet, America cannot help itself but to shove it’s god given “Righteousness”, democracy and politics down the Chinese throats. One thing is certain. This policy infuriates the Chinese to no end. Plus, China sees itself as a rising global superpower who is trying to assert its presence in the region through its military buildup, only to be constantly undermined by the US directly or with the help of Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.
While many will argue that China is acting out as a big bully against its less powerful neighbors, and that might very well be the case, one thing is certain. China feels powerful enough to challenge the US directly by suggesting, in no uncertain terms, that the US should get out of the South Pacific region. With the latest threat occurring in May of 2014 when Beijing accused the US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel of threats and intimidation. Here is just a brief summary of the conversation.
The US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel: “In recent months, China has undertaken destabilizing, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea. The US will not look the other way when fundamental principles of the international order are being challenged”.
The Deputy Chief of Staff of the Chinese Army, Lieutenant-General Wang Guanzhong responded with: “We firmly oppose any nation’s use of intimidation, coercion, or the threat of force to assert these claims. I felt that Secretary Hagel’s speech is full of hegemonism, threat and intimidation.”
To Be Continued Tomorrow…..(Why Am I Seeing This On A Financial Website?)
Investment Grin Of The Day
How You Could Have Made A Fortune Trading Apple, Inc (AAPL)
Continuation from Friday….
TIMING & MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS:
If we study Apple’s stock price movement since 1997 or after Steve Jobs took the reins back, it appears as if Apple’s stock price has synchronized with the overall movements of the stock market. Outside of a few notable exceptions, Apple’s stock price tends to ebb and flow with the stock market as a whole. Given Apple’s $580 Billion market cap, that makes perfect sense.
Yet, this yields an important clue. If Apple’s stock moves or oscillates with the market, it is best to take position at market bottoms, get out (and even go short) at market tops and then re-establish position at subsequent market bottoms. And while most people would assume that it would be impossible to time the market to such an extent, I have proven that not to be the case in my previous book Timed Value.
In that book I spend a considerable amount of time describing two important cycles that consistently show up in the stock market. The 17-18 year cycle that represents repeating secular bull/bear market patterns and the 5 year cycle that tends to represent one completed bull/bear cycle within the stock market.
For instance, the stock market had started its bull market in 1982 and had completed in 2000. This move was represented by a 18 year secular bull cycle. As of this writing, the market is in the process of completing its 17 year secular bear market cycle. Further, there were a number of clearly defined 5 year cycles during this time. Most notably, 1982-1987, 1994-2000, 2002-2007 and 2009-2014.
An analyst or an investor familiar with these cycles would understand that it is best to hold Apple’s stock during the bull phases, only to get out or even go short when the bear phase initiates. For example, an investor in Apple would get out at the top in 2000, go short to ride the stock from $20 a share to $2 a share, only to re-establish position at the bottom in 2003. In fact, April to June of 2003 represented a perfect entry point in Apple’s stock.
The stock was selling between $1.80-$2.70 at the time. The Dow set a clearly defined bottom in March of 2003 to continue its 5 year bull market cycle. An analyst working with Apple would know that Apple’s stock is likely to follow the overall market. Forcing an analyst to watch for any signs of a breakout. Such a breakout occurred in April-May of 2003 when Apple’s stock broke out of its 1 year trading range and surged higher. Giving us a technical confirmation that the bottom is likely in and that Apple’s stock is ready to follow the overall market higher.
The result?
Apple’s stock price appreciated 1,300% (13 bagger) between 2003 bottom and 2007 top. That was followed by a 60% collapse in its share price during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Followed by another 700% gain in the subsequent 2009-2014 bull market.
GETTING IN AND OUT OF THE STOCK
As you very well know, taking a trading/investment position in a Tenbagger at the appropriate time is only half the battle. Staying put, increasing your position and not being forced out to sell at the wrong time is the other side of the coin. After all, it wouldn’t be a good idea to take a 100% profit, only to see your stock go up another 20,000% over the next decade. As human beings we are wired to buy and sell at exactly the wrong time. Hence the inability to outperform the market. When it comes to Tenbaggers we must have a clearly defined set of trading rules that will help us mitigate the risk of being wrong (Please see the Tenbagger Trading Rules & Maximizing Returns chapter).
To be continued tomorrow…..
How You Could Have Made A Fortune Trading Apple, Inc (AAPL) Google
Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast. July 5th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com
Weekly Update & Summary: July 5th, 2014
A strong up week with the Dow Jones up 255 points (+1.51%) and the Nasdaq up 87 points (+1.97%). The Dow left behind two large down gaps. One on Tuesday, July 1st at 16,825 and one on Thursday, July 3rd at 16,970. Suggesting that the market will go down over the next few days/week in order to close these gaps.
At the same time, we continue to have a number of other large down gaps, the one on May 27th, two large gaps on May 21st/23rd and two large gaps on April 14th/16th. Indicating an eventual correction. Further, there are a number of smaller gaps left behind, leading all the way down to February 5th low. We continue to believe that the Dow will close such gaps when the next bear leg develops at below mentioned time frames (please see mathematical analysis & timing section below).
WEEKLY REVIEW:
Would You Like A Million With That Coffee? (10 Bagger Book. Part 4)
Continuation of Part 3(below)…...What no one at the time realized is that they were sitting on top of a goldmine that would transform their business. Through the combination of Keurig’s Premium Coffee System and Green Mountain’s coffee and K-Cups (single cup) technology, the company was about to create something of a “printer & ink” combination in the hot beverage/coffee industry.
So much so that the company went from deriving 95% of their revenue from their low margin wholesale coffee business in 1999 ($65 Million), to deriving 95% of their current revenue base from their high margin sales of Keurig Coffee Systems and K-Cups ($4.3 Billion). In summary, staring in 1998-1999 Green Mountain Started its transformation from a sleepy coffee distributor/roaster into a high-technology coffee company. Hence the growth and the 49,616% return on investment since 1999.
For our purposes, we must ascertain if it would have been possible to predict this meteoric rise and take position in the second half of 1999 from the fundamental perspective alone.
The short answer is NO.
There were very few clues that would allow us to take a position at the time. First, there was nothing special about the company. It was just another regional coffee distributor/roaster. Second, the company was stuck in a tight trading range for over five years. Further, the company’s valuation at the time (with the P/E of 20) would not warrant a value oriented investment. Finally, there was nothing to suggest that the company was about to stage a massive revenue growth spurt.
Even Green Mountain’s own management didn’t not anticipate that their Keurig line would take off as much as it did. The best any fundamental analyst could have done at that stage is thrown this company into a “Big Potential” bin. That is after analyzing Keurig & K-Cups in great detail and realizing that the company MIGHT have a great product line on their hands. Yet, no one at the time could have predicted that Keurig and Green Mountain would be able to achieve the growth that they have had. This brings us to the technical side of the equation.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Since the fundamental analysis has failed to give us the ability to take a long position in Green Mountain’s stock in the second half of 1999, we must now concentrate on the technical side of the equation to see if would have had better luck there.
As you can see from the 1994-2000 GMCR chart above, after going public the company’s stock immediately declined over 50%. Thereafter, the stock price remained in a tight trading range of $0.14-0.40 (split adjusted) between 1994 and the second half of 1999. Bottoming at $0.14 in October of 1998.
With the stock price trending higher in 1999 and 2000 we would had two opportunities to take a long position in GMCR at the time. One in September of 1999 at $0.31 and one in January of 2000 at $0.35. With the $0.35 entry point in January of 2000 being technically more sound.
To Be Continued Tomorrow…….
Stock Market Update
While the market continues to put most traders/investors into a deep state of trance, the chart above should give them a swift kick in the ass. At least in theory. Among other things, it clearly shows that forward P/E for the S&P is now officially higher than it was back in 2007. And while some will stop there, I will not.
You see, the E in P/E has been massively diluted over the last 5 years by the FED, massive capital infusion, QE, etc….Creating “fake or pay it forward” earnings for all of the corporate America. So much so that if we make make certain adjustments and take that monstrous/artificial liquidity out, the real P/E is likely to be above 40. Making today’s market incredibly overpriced. This is exactly what happened in 2008 when corporate earnings collapsed and the S&P P/E ratio briefly jumped over 100.
So, – 49%, -57% and -??% to complete our 2000-2017 secular bear market.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
The Shocking Truth Behind Predicting Nuclear World War 3 (Book, Intro, Part 4)
Continuation of Part 3…..After a decade long research into the subject matter, let me firmly state that everything that was said in the article above is 100% true. Once the stock market structure is understood in its entirety, the market or individual stocks can be timed with great precision. Not by some arbitrary technique that cannot be replicated, but through the use of modern science and mathematics. Math doesn’t lie and when the market turns/reverses at exact mathematical points of force, only one explanation remains. The market is not a randomly volatile instrument, but a mathematically precise tool that baffles the mind.
What does that have to do with predicting the future?……. Everything.
Again, if one can predict the future movements of stocks, one should also able to use the same mathematical knowledge to predict the future of our everyday lives. As above, so is below. In other words, the same TIME cycles that apply to the stock market can be applied towards predicting everything else. Everything from major disasters to major events in our own lives, from major political changes to wars. Once you understand that, predicting the future becomes a whole lot easier.
Now, I know what you are thinking. The future is impossible to predict, we do not live in a “predetermined” world and the very notion of living in such a “pre-programmed” world is ludicrous…..everyone know that. Well, do they? Do I really have to remind you that just 500 years ago 99.9% of the Earth’s population believed that A. The Earth was flat and B. The Earth was the center of the Universe. And if you were to suggest otherwise you would be called a heretic and grilled at the stake.
Point being, when it comes to understanding the world we live and/or the multi-dimensional architecture behind our 3-Dimensional reality, the human race has not even started its ascend. We act as children in a pitch black room, groping everything and understanding nothing. And instead of arguing this point further I will leave you with a quote from someone who has a little bit more credibility and a lot more intelligence. Someone who is basically telling you the same thing.
God Does Not Play Dice
-Albert Einstein
When it comes to predicting Nuclear World War 3 the book will look at the subject matter in the following order.
- The Study Of Time Cycles & Predicting The Future: We will look at a number of real life examples and I will prove to you, without a shadow of a doubt, that the TIME cycles I talk about are real. We will also take a look at how they work and what the future holds.
- When Will The War Start: We will study the WAR TIME CYCLE in great detail. We will also look at the exact time window associated with the start of the WW-3 and the meaning behind it.
- Why Will The War Start & Why Will It Be A Nuclear War: We will look at the number of today’s geopolitical issues in order to determine who will fight the war, why it is unavoidable and why it will be a Nuclear war.
- How Will The War Start: We will look at a number of possible scenarios.
- What You Can Do Now To Protect/Save Your Family & Yourself: As a bonus section we will look at what you can do over the next decade to protect/save your family and yourself.
Buckle up, it’s going to be a fascinating journey.
GEOPOLITICAL & MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS:
With the week ending where it began, most of the issues discussed in last week’s update remain intact. Below is a re-print of last week’s update.
This week has not been a good week from a geopolitical sense. With so many conflicts happening simultaneously it certainly feels as if the world is going to hell in a hand basket. Let’s take a quick look at the three of the most important ones and see if they can impact our financial markets
- Ukraine/Russia/NATO/USA/EU: As I have mentioned in last week’s update this situation continues to die off. While there is cease fire and with Putin suggesting that he will not invade, this issue might be on a verge of completion. With that said and as with any conflict, a quick re-escalation is always a possibility. Unfortunately, the US relationship with Russia will continue to deteriorate for as long as this administration remains in place. If the conflict dies off, there shouldn’t be any impact on our financial markets.
- China/USA/NATO/Philippines/Vietnam/Taiwan/Japan: China has already said, in no uncertain terms and a number of times, that it wants the US military presence out of Asia. China will continue to flex its military muscles to try and control the entire region. While there have been a number of incidents, thus far they have not caused any major problems. Yet, make no mistake, the pressure is building and this powder keg will explode. Sooner or later. No impact on our financial markets as of today.
- Iraq/Syria/USA: In a stunning turn of events, various factions of Islamic militants, crazies, al-queda, etc….. have nearly completed their takeover of Iraq in a matter of day. Given the circumstances and reports coming out of the Iraq, it is probable that Baghdad might fall to such militant groups within a matter of weeks. Giving them control of the entire country. No amount of “strategic bombing” by the US will prevent that from happening. Only an invasion can and no one is willing to do that.
This is the most important issue now….. on two fronts. First, if successful, these Islamic militants will be able to use Iraq and parts of Syria as lawless land where anything and everything goes. Further destabilizing the region and having the ability to train as many terrorists as their little hearts desires. This will come back to haunt us. Second, OIL & OIL money. They might end up as the wealthiest terrorist organization ever created, destabilizing the oil markets in the process. We must watch this situation very carefully and anticipate that it MIGHT have an adverse impact on our financial markets.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE DOW JONES:
Long-Term: The trend is still up. Market action in January-February could be viewed as a simple correction in an ongoing bull market. Same applies to the market action over the last few months. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.
Intermediary-Term: Since February 5th, intermediary term picture shifted from negative to positive. Giving us a technical indication that both the intermediary term and the long term trends are up. Yet, that in itself can be misleading as per our timing analysis discussion below.
Short-Term: Short-term trend remains positive for the time being. The Dow would have to break below 16,800 for the short-term trend to shift from positive to negative.
Again, even though all 3 trends are bullish for the time being, that might be misleading. Please read our Mathematical and Timing Analysis to see what will transpire over the next few weeks.
MATHEMATICAL & TIMING ANALYSIS:
It’s going to be a long one.
First, a re-cap. Particularly for our new subscribers. Over the last few months we have maintained that the DOW will…..
(*** Please Note: This time around about 90% of the information contained within this section has been deliberately removed as it contain too much technical information. Particularly, exact dates and prices of the upcoming turning points. As well as trading forecasts associated with them. I deem such information to be too valuable to be released onto the general public. As such, this information is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more.Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial).
In conclusion, xxxx
Longer-Term Overview:
The next turning point is located at……
Date: XXXX
Price: XXXX
TRADING:
I am now fully committed to the XXXX side of the market with 11 individual positions taken at the prices outlined below. A lot of them have done incredibly well thus far and I hope you were able to benefit as well. I will be updating you of any changes or anticipated changes before they take place.
Remember, you should have an exact strategy and entry/exit points based on the forecast above.
The list below is for your reference point. It entails my investment strategy for my own investment purposes. While you are free to follow me, please do so at your own risk. Do not take this as a trading advice. Please note, all of the positions below have been triggered.
| Stock | Entry Point ($) | Action Taken | Stop Loss @ |
| xxxx | xxxx | xxxx | 91 |
| xxxx | xxxx | xxxx | 1250 |
| xxxx | 110 | xxxx | 121-123 |
| xxxx | 74 | xxxx | 80 |
| xxxx | xxxx | xxxx | 260 |
| xxxx | xxxx | xxxx | 460 |
| xxxx | 35 | xxxx | 39 |
| xxxx | 65 | xxxx | 70 |
| xxxx | 120 | xxxx | 120-130 |
| xxxx | 100 | xxxx | 108-112 |
| xxxx | 112 | xxxx | 120 |
Otherwise, I suggest the following positioning over the next few days/weeks to minimize the risk while positioning yourself for a forecasted market action. (This is continuation of our previous positioning).
If You Are A Trader: XXXX
If No Position: XXXX
If Long: XXXX
If Short: XXXX
CONCLUSION:
An incredibly important week is coming up. We are now looking for our forecasts above to be confirmed over the next few trading days/weeks. I have also described what to anticipate over the next few months and exactly what you should do now. With increased volatility, multiple interference patterns and an incredibly important long-term turning points coming up over the next few months we must be very careful and risk averse here. Those anticipating the moves and those who can time them properly will be rewarded appropriately.
Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start.
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast. July 5th, 2014. InvestWithAlex.com Google
The Hunt For 10 Baggers (Book…Introduction…Part 3)
Continuation of part 2
What will we find and will we be able to identify future Tenbaggers based on the analysis above?
That is the purpose of this book. To look at such companies in greater detail and to identify traits that were common to all of them. By combining fundamental, technical and timing/mathematical analysis we will be able to determine what factors were important and what might have triggered these Tenbaggers to initiate their massive multiyear stock market rallies. Most importantly, we will attempt to build an early trigger system that would allow us to take appropriate positions in future Tenbaggers. All while holding their stocks through the duration of their rallies.
Which companies will we study?
| Company Name | Stock Symbol | % Appreciation | Number Of Bags | Original Investment($10,000) | Industry | Duration |
| Franklin Resources | BEN | 81,328% | 813 | $8.1 Million | Financial | 22 Years |
| Danaher Corp | DHR | 56,478% | 564 | $5.6 Million | Industrial | 24 Years |
| Apple Inc | AAPL | 4,185% | 41 | $410,000 | Technology | 14 Years (*Since 2000) |
| The GAP, Inc | GAP | 69,100% | 691 | $6.9 Million | Retail | 24 Years |
| CarMax, Inc | KMX | 5,878% | 58 | $580,000 | Auto | 15 Years(*Since 1999) |
| Southwestern Energy Co | SWN | 6,288% | 63 | $630,000 | Utilities | 15 Years (*Since 1998) |
| Bally Technologies | BYI | 12,213% | 122 | $1.2 Million | Technology | 14 Years (*Since 2000) |
| Keurig Green Mountain | GMCR | 60,675% | 607 | $6.1 Million | Consumer | 20 Years (*Since 1994) |
| Best Buy Inc | BBY | 42,500% | 425 | $4.25 Million | Retail | 29 Years (*Since 1985) |
| Medifast Inc | MED | 15,605% | 156 | $1.56 Million | Weight Loss | 13 Years(*Since 2001) |
*Data as of June 2014.
In conclusion, this book will attempt to become a definitive guide on how to identify, analyze and take appropriate position in future Tenbaggers. In a wide range of diversified industries. By studying the past and identifying clearly defined metrics, we should be able to parlay such knowledge well into the future. It is my sincere hope that this book helps you identify future Tenbaggers, take position at the appropriate time and hold it through thick and thin. Well, at least until it is time to take profit at 10X, 20X or 50X your original purchase price. If done properly and successfully, the grandkids of your grandkids will never have to work.
To Be Continued……