InvestWithAlex.com 

12 Years Ago

world_trade_center invest with alex

We all know what happened on that fateful day and atrocities committed against innocent people. However, I choose to remember it for something good.

I remember being in Pacific Beach, San Diego on September 11th, around 9 pm. There were American flags everywhere and a ton of people outside. Everyone was either sitting quietly on the street curb in deep thought or talking. There were candles everywhere. Cars driving by with American flags sticking from the windows, honking like crazy.

I have never seen anything like that. The entire nation came together. There were no longer political parties, rich or poor, black or white. At that instant everyone was simply an American.  A beautiful site to behold indeed.

sept11

Today I will a grab a beer in memory of all of those innocent people who lost their lives. Irregardless of your views on the subject matter, I suggest you do the same.    

 

 

China Is An Economic Disaster Waiting For Implosion

CNBC Writes: Why China property is immune to tapering

china_real_estate_bubble_debt_collapse

China’s property market is unlikely to take a hit from tighter liquidity when the Federal Reserve finally pursues the much-anticipated tapering of its bond buying program, said Wang Jianlin, chairman of Dalian Wanda, a commercial property-to-karaoke-outlet conglomerate, as well as China’s richest man according to Forbes (Bombay Stock Exchange: 502865-BY) magazine.

“The tight liquidity will push up interest rates. But I don’t think interest rates will go up by too much,” Wang told CNBC in an exclusive interview, adding China’s economy also doesn’t move in lock-step with global markets.

“Because the profit margin for China’s real estate industry is above the global average, a 1 percent to 2 percent rise in interest [rates] will have very limited impact on the profit margins of bigger property players,” added Wang.

China property developers’ gross margins were around 34 percent in the first half of the year, UOB (Singapore Exchange: UOBH-SG) Kay Hian said in a recent report on the developers it covers. It noted the second half is usually stronger.

Wang also expects Beijing to re-focus its sector cooling measures, with property firms to soon be allowed to refinance after a nine-year hiatus on the segment’s IPOs, in a move set to spur further development.

The Shanghai Securities Journal reported last week that detailed regulations on refinancing approval would be released in a couple of weeks at the soonest.

“China’s economy now needs the property industry,” Wang said. “Given the decline in export and investment, China’s economy has turned from high growth to moderate growth with further downside risks.”

Deutsche Bank (XETRA:DBK-DE) also expects Beijing’s drive toward urbanization to offer a long-term fillip to the property sector. The “new form” of urbanization will include developing big city-clusters, rather than just a few big cities, with more urban retail properties in Tier two, three and four cities, it said in a recent report.

“We expect domestic consumption to pick up given higher urbanization and higher productivity,” the investment bank said.

Wang is also bullish on China’s consumption outlook in the longer term. “This will be key for the country’s future economic development,” he said. Wang’s Wanda Dalian conglomerate operates 57 department stores. “By 2015, China is set to become the largest consumer market in the world at over CNY30 trillion ($4.9 trillion).” 

Immune? Sure, just as I am immune from dying.

If you have been to China over the last couple of years you have seen it firsthand.  There is so much real estate development that it is a site to behold. There are literally entire cities coming up all at once in the middle of nowhere.  I was impressed and I am not that easily impressed.

The problem is, most of these developments are driven by speculation and capital misallocation. The majority of these developments are empty, bought by Chinese speculators using multi generational savings and loans.

What surprised me the most is that not a single Chinese person I talked to (and I was mostly talking to very intelligent business/government folk) even remotely worried about this issue. Every single one of them said something to the tune of….”Real estate will always go up in China, if market begins to decline our Government will backstop it to prevent losses. There is no risk, it’s an easy way for us to make money.”

I didn’t want to argue with them to prove my point, but such a statement by itself is a clear indication of a speculative bubble.  Any reliance on the Chinese Government to prevent or stop a collapse from happening is just an illusion at best. Those who study financial markets know that there is no way to prevent or to stop a collapse when it happens. I don’t care what kind of a government it is. Not even GOD can do.

China is a fiscal time bomb that will eventually go off.  I believe that time is coming up very soon. When that happens Chinese property bubble will implode, millions of Chinese families will lose their multi generational savings and that in itself will lead to political instability and a possible revolution.  Simple as that.     

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Americas Hidden Depression

Bloomberg Writes: Recession? Depression? One in Three Thinks So

great-depression-investwithalex

A third of Americans think the U.S. economy is in a recession or a depression and only one in six think it’s growing, says a new survey that also finds “deep-seated pessimism about the medium term.”

Americans are highly critical of policymakers, unwilling to take risks with their savings, planning to reduce their indebtedness over the next year, suspicious of the stock market, and more worried about inflation than unemployment, according to the survey released today.

The National Bureau of Economic Research has declared that the U.S. pulled out of recession more than four years ago—in June 2009—but a lot of people apparently didn’t get the memo.

The survey found that 85 percent of the 1,000-plus adults worry to some degree about their financial situation, compared with 90 percent three years ago. People who say they’re worse off than they were a year ago outnumber those who say they’re better off, 28 percent to 22 percent.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

This is fairly easy to explain.  The survey above shows the true state of the US Economy. Even though the numbers shows that the US Economy has recovered significantly from the March of 2009 bottom, nothing could be further from the truth.

The recovery was fueled and financed by Credit Bubble Finance. Meaning that the US Government basically wasted about a Trillion Dollars (some claim a lot more) to prevent a complete collapse in the US Economic System.  However, the original “SIN” of massive credit expansion, cheap finance and speculation hasn’t been fixed yet. On the contrary, it has been made a lot worse.

Now the US Economy has massive imbalances that cannot be dismissed or fixed in any favorable fashion. It could only be done either through massive inflation or massive defaults. Even war is no longer a tool. 

I am sorry to say, but my timing work clearly shows that both of those things are about to happen. First, deflationary credit defaults from now till 2016 final bear market bottom (and 2018 secondary bottom), followed by accelerated inflation thereafter.

Unfortunately, in such a scenario no one wins, but it does pay to be prepared.  

If you can, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

China Is A Mess

Reuters Writes: China locks foreign investors out of another bad-debt cleanup

investwithalex shanghai

HONG KONG (Reuters) – Chinese banks have a colossal mess of bad debts to clean up for the second time in as many decades, but they are unlikely to call in the financial world’s most efficient mop and broom.

Foreign investors that specialise in buying up distressed debt are queuing outside the industry’s door, but bankers say China’s reluctance to pay the price of a privately funded clean-up means that door probably won’t open — to the cost of Chinese tax-payers and, ultimately perhaps, the wider economy.

Some economists believe the current mess will need a bigger clean-up than was required after the late-1990s Asian financial crisis. From 1999 to 2007, about $323 billion in bad loans were swept out of the banks, according to a PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) review of media reports over the period, in what amounted to a taxpayer-funded bailout.

“Sometimes the door is open for foreigners to come up and make money, and sometimes it’s closed,” said one veteran debt specialist who has bought and sold Chinese debt for global investment banks. He declined to be named due to the sensitivity of discussing China’s sovereign debt.

“Our belief right now is that the door is closed.”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here:

It doesn’t look like it yet, but China is in a huge mess.  From outside it looks like an economic marvel growing at 7% per year, yet it is in huge trouble.  While a good chunk of Chinese economic growth over the last decade has been export and manufacturing related (which is great), some economist estimate that as much as 50-75% of that growth came from government debt and domestic property misallocation (aka building empty cities and roads to nowhere).

That is the primary reason Chinese banks don’t want foreign investors to look at their balance sheet or their assets. They know that as soon as someone looks at their debt they will be horrified of what they see.  At that point the news will get out and the state controlled economy that is China will not be able to control the outcome. The game will be up.  

As they say, ignorance is bliss. The Chinese economy will keep moving forward through the minefield until one of those mines goes off. I believe the time is at hand or will be shortly. At that point the jig will be up and Chinese economy will go through a severe correction.  

If you can, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Philippine Bureau of Internal Revenue(BIR) Is Now Training Their Agents To “Shoot-To-Kill” For Tax Evasion

BusinessWeek Writes: The Philippines’ Tax Sheriff Gets Tough

 Investwithalex philippine bir

When Kim Henares took over the Bureau of Internal Revenue in the Philippines three years ago, she began looking for tax dodgers by poring over the society pages of newspapers and magazines. She says that as a result, she sent federal prosecutors complaints against two television actresses, a doctor, and a Lamborghini-driving pawnshop owner. “If you’re ready to flaunt it, then you must have paid taxes on it,” Henares says.

Her take-no-prisoners approach is part of President Benigno Aquino III’s crusade to erase a Philippine legacy of graft. Not paying taxes is one of the nation’s most common forms of corruption; the government estimates that $10 billion, or 4 percent of gross domestic product, goes unpaid every year. Henares says it’s her job to claw back as much of that as she can, and “if people don’t like me, that’s fine.”

Her agency alleged in 2011 that former President Gloria Arroyo’s son Juan Miguel had evaded taxes. His mother, a friend of Henares’s in-laws, had played a prominent role at her 2001 wedding. The case is continuing. Ruy Rondain, Juan Miguel Arroyo’s lawyer, says his client believes the charges are politically motivated. “There’s no case, so they made one up,” Rondain says. Last year, Henares’s agency asked prosecutors to file charges against former world boxing champion Manny Pacquiao, who’s now a federal legislator, for allegedly failing to submit documents proving that he paid the correct amount of taxes in 2010. A city prosecutor declined the agency’s request to file charges. Pacquaio told the Associated Press the complaint against him was “plain and simple harassment.”

Henares doesn’t discount the official statistics as a sign of progress. But for proof that her crackdown is haunting the country’s moneyed elite, she points to a more informal source. Henares says her mother hears from acquaintances that it now can cost 60 percent more than in the past to bribe an official for help dodging taxes.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Of course the headline above is a joke.  I just wanted to bring as much attention as I could to the article for those living and/or working in the Philippines.

Overall it’s a great step forward for the country and it is always nice to see international recognition. As much as I hate paying taxes, it is one of the most important steps in fighting corruption and setting up a fair taxation environment that Philippines so desperately needs.

A fair taxation and representation system is a must key step for any future economic growth.  Without any such structure only a small percentage of the overall economy/people will benefit. I wish Kim Henares all the luck she needs.

If you can, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

A Must Read

A Must Read For Everyone, 

David Stockman writes through The Daily Beast: The End of U.S. Imperium—Finally!

After having rained napalm, white phosphorous, bunker busters, drone missiles, and the most violent machinery of conventional warfare ever assembled upon millions of innocent Vietnamese, Cambodians, Serbs, Somalis, Iraqis, Afghans, Pakistanis, Yemeni, Libyans, and countless more, Washington now presupposes to be in the moral-sanctions business? That’s downright farcical.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here. Highly Recommended.

team america, investwithalex

182 Million iPads

BusinessWeek Writes: Risk Ahoy: Maersk, Daewoo Build the World’s Biggest Boat

triple e investwithalex 

The Triple-E’s capacity is 18,000 TEU. (Most containers today are 40 feet long, so the number carried will be closer to 9,000.) Laid end to end, a single Triple-E’s shipping containers would stretch for 68 miles. “In the late 1990s we were like, ‘Oh my God, a 6,000-TEU ship,’ ” says Peter Shaerf, a managing director at AMA Capital Partners, an investment bank specializing in the maritime industry. “Then you go to 13,000 and now 18,000. I don’t know where it stops.” Practically speaking, a Triple-E, in one trip, could take more than 182 million iPads or 111 million pairs of shoes from Shanghai to Rotterdam. Such a trip would take 25 days and burn 530,000 gallons of fuel. That comes to 0.003 gallons per iPad.

Read the rest of the article here

This is truly a massive ship.  A marvel of engineering, capable of carrying massive amounts of cargo.

However, bare with me for a second as we look at it from another perspective.  I think everyone knows the Skyscraper index analogy by now. Basically, the theory says that when the biggest building in the world is built at any given time or nation it spells the end of prosperity and marks the beginning of rough times ahead.

For example,

  • Empire State Building was completed in 1931 or during the darkest hours of the great depression.
  • Chicago Sears Towers was completed in 1973 or near the bottom of a severe 1972-74 recession.
  • Burj Khalifa in Dubai was completed in 2010 close to what some believe was a cyclical high in oil  prices in 2008.  
  • Now China is scheduled to complete the world tallest building “Sky City” in 2014 as it stands close to an economic disaster previously discussed.

feat_ship37graph_315inline

So, the question becomes….. Does Triple E simply represent an engineering marvel or does it stand as a symbol of peak in global economic trade (at least for the time being). Let’s see. 

With the US being on the brink of another recession(if not already in one), with no end of economic troubles in Europe, with emerging markets imploding left and right, with China being in a massive speculative and misallocation bubble, I do not see how global trade can increase that much here over the next few years. As such, Triple E might in fact represent the peak in global trade for the time being.  

If you can, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Russian Warships Are Racing To Support Syria, S#*$ Is About To Get Real

AFP Writes: Russian warships cross Bosphorus, en route to Syria

APTOPIX Venezuela Russia

 

Three Russian warships crossed Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait Thursday en route to the eastern Mediterranean, near the Syrian coast, amid concern in the region over potential US-led strikes in response to the Damascus regime’s alleged use of chemical weapons.

Russia, a key ally of Damascus, has kept a constant presence of around four warships in the eastern Mediterranean in the Syrian crisis, rotating them every few months.

Moscow vehemently opposes the US-led plans for military action against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in response to the chemical attack outside Damascus last month.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Wednesday that any US Congress approval for a military strike against Syria without UN consensus would represent an “aggression”.

The Obama administration is hell bent on launching a strike against Syria for what they claim to be a chemical attack on their own people. Of course there is no concrete evidence to the fact, but that is not a deterrent enough for the blood hungry Industrial Military Complex.

Even though popular American opinion is overwhelmingly against attacking Syria, it looks as if this Administration will stop at nothing to settle some sort of a score or to settle some crazy perception that American should stand firm by its principals.  I have no idea what principals those are.

With Russian ships racing to support Syria and with Iran basically saying that they will go to war with the US if Syria is attacked, the situation is getting out of control.  If history teaches us anything is that in “powder keg” times such as these, even a small incident can set in motion a chain of events that has the potential to lead us into a large scale conflict.  

Why is this important from an economic perspective? If some sort of war is set off and with Russia/Iran involved,  it can engulf the whole region. That would have an immediate impact on anything and everything from interest rates to oil prices and from the stock market to the job market.

America has enough structural and fiscal problems to keep it busy for decades and as such it should concentrate on domestic issues instead of trying to go to war against Syria. Let’s just hope that nothing happens and cooler heads prevail. 

If you can, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!! 

US Economy…Which Way?

Reuters Writes: Robust auto sales keep economy on steady growth path

 Investwithalex up or down

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy appears to be faring better in the third quarter than analysts had feared with automakers reporting surprisingly strong August sales on Wednesday, helping to buoy expectations of a pullback in monetary stimulus ahead.

In another report, the Federal Reserve said strong demand for autos helped keep the economy on a “modest to moderate” growth path in recent weeks, an assessment that leaves the door open for a reduction in the central bank’s bond purchases.

Auto sales rose 17 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.1 million units. That was the fastest pace since October 2007 and beat the 15.8 million-unit rate analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected.

Auto sales are a key leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.

“We continue to head in the right direction,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “With vehicle sales above 16 million (and) a slow but steadily improving job market, the Fed is going to feel comfortable tapering in September.”

AP Writes: US factory orders drop 2.4 percent in July

WASHINGTON (AP) — Orders to U.S. factories fell in July by the sharpest amount in four months, held back by weaker demand for commercial aircraft and heavy machinery. A key category that reflects business investment plans also fell.

Factory orders dropped 2.4 percent in July compared with June, when orders rose 1.6 percent, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Orders for core capital goods, a category viewed as a proxy for business investment spending, fell 4 percent in July.

Orders for durable goods, items expected to last at least three years, declined 7.4 percent, a slightly bigger drop than the 7.3 percent fall estimated in a preliminary report last week. It was the biggest decline since a 12.9 percent fall in August 2012. Orders for nondurable goods, items such as chemicals, food and paper, rose 2.4 percent in July after a 0.5 percent decline in June.

Auto sales up, factory orders down. What is going on?  I believe what you are beginning to see and will continue to see over the next few quarters is divergence all over the place. While some sectors will do well, others will be in trouble.

This kind of a behavior is indicative of a major turning point in the markets and the overall economy. Eventually most sectors will turn down, but at least for now as this topping process continues, some will continue to grow. This is confirmed by my stock market work which indicates that the bull run that started in March of 2009 is now over and the market should reverse itself into the 2016 final bear market bottom. Dragging all sectors down in the process.

If you can, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!

They Couldn’t Find A Single Syrian That Hates America Anymore?

Bloomberg Writes: Syria Attack Has China Outraged — at U.S.

 

As the U.S. prepares for a potential attack on SyriaChina is left in the awkward position of reacting to the news and occasionally justifying opposition to any U.S. action.

This is not new. In early 2012, China joined Russia in vetoing a United Nations Security Council draft resolution condemning Syrian violence and supporting an Arab League peace plan. It was a controversial move at the time, and the criticism was so overwhelming that People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s mouthpiece newspaper, felt compelled to editorialize in favor of China’s veto — after the fact.

That move itself was unusual for a government that rarely feels the need to explain itself retroactively. But on Syria, Chinese leaders appeared unusually sensitive to suggestions that they may have been insensitive to an unfolding humanitarian crisis. Referring to the U.S. as “the military giant,” the paper wrote in February 2012:

“Even if it stays for a while, it will not take protecting lives of local civilians as its primary task. The tragedies that have occurred in Iraq and Afghanistan have proved it.

“Using violence to prevent humanitarian disasters sounds just and responsible. However, aren’t the attacks and explosions that have occurred after the regime changes in the two countries humanitarian disasters?”

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

 

Living outside of the US and watching NBC Nightly News last night, something struck me.  American media is no longer free. I know the media is controlled by corporate interest, but I didn’t realize the extent of the control and the extent of the governmental control until last night.

Basically, half they show they showed dead children followed by crying Syrian men, women and children (of course in some refugee camp) all to a single person saying something to the tune of “America the Great, please help us, you are our only chance for freedom, please defeat Assad, he is killing us, blah, blah, blah”.

What I couldn’t figure out is why there were not able to find one Syrian, not a single Syrian who hates America and/or doesn’t want American intervention.  Wasn’t it just a few years ago there were hundreds of thousands of Syrians in the streets burning American flags and chanting “Death to America”.  And they couldn’t find one Syrian who hates America?  Am I missing something here or did decades of hate turn to love overnight.

You know what this is called? PROPAGANDA.  I grew up in the Soviet Union and I know bullshit when I see it.

Has anyone stopped to ask some questions here.  For example, everyone keeps screaming about ample evidence that Syrian Government was responsible for the gas attack. Apparently there are intercepted phone calls,  direct orders, physical evidence, etc…. Okay, fair enough.  Don’t tell me. Show me. Oh, that’s right, it’s against national security interest to share that information with the American people.

Same song, different day and a different country.  I am sadden by this and what is happening in America.  Another war, another country destroyed, thousands killed. Oh, by the way, here is Senator McCain playing poker  during the Senate hearing in regards to Syria, all while being the number one proponent of going into war. Class act, if you ask me.

mccain-wapo-poker

 

As the Bible says “Put your sword back in its place, for all who draw the sword will die by the sword.”

If you can, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!