3/18/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 118 points (+0.68%) and the Nasdaq up 20 points (+0.43%).
The last two weeks were quite extraordinary. In a sense that all major central banks have gone “All In“. The Bank of Japan has already gone negative. China continues to devalue the Yuan while injecting more capital. Last week the ECB and Mario Draghi went all in. I wrote about it here……ECB & Draghi Go All In……Markets Yawn This week, Janet Yellen followed up with FED’s Stunning Admission
An independent observer might just inquire……What the hell is going on?
I think you will find most of the answers in this article.
Did central bankers make a secret deal to drive markets? This rumor says yes
Rumors are flourishing that global policy makers made a secret deal at the G-20 meeting in Shanghai late last month. This “Shanghai Accord” to weaken the greenback was aimed at calming the financial markets, which had gotten off to an awful start to the new year, according to the chatter.
That sounds about right. And the result? Most bulls are rejoicing….at least for the time being.
- Dow’s doing something it hasn’t done since 1933
- The Fed is crushing the dollar — and that’s great for stocks
- Cramer: Signs a massive rally could be coming
Wonderful……right? Not so fast.
- If No One Is Trading, Is It Really a Rally?
- Earnings season might spoil Yellen’s Goldilocks announcement
Basically, here is what you have to understand from all of the above.
- The Fed/ECB/BJ/PBOC have gone all in and then some. And what did that intervention get them? A weaker dollar (not by much) and a 2,000 point rally on the Dow (thus far).
- Yet, the fundamental reality remains the same. The worldwide economy and earnings are coming to a screeching halt while the stock market is selling at historic bubble valuation levels. As described in multiple previous posts on this blog.
As a result, the real question investors should be asking here is…..
What happens when earning decline and economy rolls over into a recessionary environment…… all while investors realize that stocks are selling at dizzying valuations levels and that central bankers have already gone “all in”???
I can think of quite a few scenarios, with none of them being too kind to today’s bulls.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 18th, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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