COT Reports & Weekly Market Calendar – September 18th, 2015

COT Reports: If you are not familiar, the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions. In other words, it gives us a preview of what commercial interests are buying or selling. As the theory goes, we want to be on the same side of the trade as the big guys.

While not a good timing tool, currencies, commodities and the stock market (to a lesser extent) tend to move in the direction of the bets made by the commercial players. Not always, but often enough.

Latest data, as of September 8th, 2015

Currencies:

USD: 1K Long Vs. 68K Short – Slight increase in net short position. Substantial short interest remains.
Canadian Dollar: 70K Long Vs. 4K Short – Slight net decrease in commercials net long position. Significant long interest remains.
British Pound: 84K Long Vs. 8K Short – Slight increase in net long interest. British pound is now bullish.
Japanese Yen: 125K Long Vs. 101K Short – Substantial net increase in short interest. Japanese Yen is now neutral.
Euro: 134K Long Vs. 55K Short – Slight increase in net long exposure. Significant long position remains. No changes.
Australian Dollar: 140K Long Vs. 1K Short- Slight increase in net long position. Significant long position remains.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests expect the US Dollar to decline while Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Euro and Australian Dollar rally. Japanese Yen is now net neutral.

Markets/Commodities/Volatility:

E-Mini S&P 500: 596K Long Vs. 485K Short – Net neutral position remains. Commercials took profit after later August sell-off.
VIX: 49K Long Vs. 87K Short – Slight increase in net short position. Still net neutral. Commercials took profit after late August sell-off.
Gold: 69K Long Vs. 65K Short – Slight increase in net long exposure. Still neutral.

Conclusion: Based on the information above, commercial interests are now net neutral. This is consistent with the market remaining in a tight, relatively speaking, trading range. Gold is likely to remain within its trading range.

Next Week’s Market Calendar: