USA Today Writes: Aging bull faces fresh survival tests
Sadly, no bull market lives forever on Wall Street. And the current bull, which was born on March 9, 2009, and has delivered a fat gain of 172%, is no exception.
The current bull is nearly 5 years old. That’s longer than the average bull, which tends to last closer to four years, according to data going back to 1932 compiled by InvesTech Research newsletter. “Not only is the current bull a full year longer than the norm, it is about to become the fourth-longest since 1932,” says editor James Stack. “If that doesn’t make you nervous, it should.”
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I oftentimes talk about an important 5 years market cycle on this blog. If you go back and study the market in greater detail, you will see this 5 year cycle appearing constantly.
For instance, from 1932 to 37, from 1982 to 1987, from 1994 -2000, from 2002 to 2007. These are just the prominent and known cycles, but there are many others. In both bull and bear market legs. In addition, we are not talking about 5 years +/- 6 months. In most cases, the cycles were exact as my earlier analysis on this blog showed. Now, we have a very clear 5 year pattern developing within the existing bull market run. The cycle started with a V shape bottom in March of 2009 and will complete itself in March of 2014.
What does it all mean? The 5 year cycle simply confirms our overall hypothesis that the bear market is about to start. It indicates that the market is finishing up its 5 year growth spiral and should roll over shortly to start its 3 year bear leg. Get yourself ready.
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