– State of the Market Address:
- The Dow is back above 24,000
- Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 31.74 Slightly off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
- Weekly RSI at 52 – neutral. Daily RSI is at 50 – neutral.
- Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 19,100 today (on weekly).
- Weekly Stochastics at 28 – neutral. Daily at 83 – Overbought.
- NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +1 – Neutral.
- Commercial VIX interest is now 70K contracts net short.
- Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have, more or less, shifted back into a net bearish position. For now, the Dow is 2X net short, the S&P is at 4.5X net short, Russell 2000 is 2X net short and the Nasdaq is 2X net long.
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