Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – February 28th, 2018

– State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow is back at 25
  • Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 32.83 Off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 58 – neutral. Daily RSI is at 47 – neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 18,900 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 56  – neutral. Daily at 83 – overbought.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -10 Neutral.
  • Commercial VIX interest is now 15K contracts net short.
  • Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have, more or less, shifted into a bullish positioning.  For now, the Dow is 2X net short, the S&P is at 3X net short, Russell 2000 is net neutral and the Nasdaq is now 3X net long.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear long-term bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


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