When it comes to the overall stock market or individual stocks, investors are always able to find at least a dozen data points to support their investment decision. Whatever that decision might be.
Lately, quite a few people have been coming out of the woodwork in an attempt to justify today’s bull market. Here is one of the dumbest I have seen in a while…..Stocks just did something they haven’t done since 1904
“The S&P 500 did something in the first half of 2015 that it has not done since 1904 — the S&P 500 posted two consecutive (back to back) quarters of 0% gains,” Lee said. “In fact, this has happened only one other time in the past 125 years, for either the Dow and the S&P 500.”
The last time this happened, it was the Dow that stood still for six months in 1904. But then something else happened: Stocks surged 43% over the next two quarters.
I love pocking holes in historic financial analysis when people have failed to do their homework. You can’t compare 1904 to 2015, but not for the reasons you might think. At that time we were in a totally different location within the 1899-1914 secular bear market. Today, we are at the end of this same cycle.
Meaning, the stock market is more likely to decline 43% here than to surge higher. Why? Because that’s what markets do at the end of their respective 17-18 year secular bear market cycles. Ex: 1913-1914, 1946-1949, 1981-1982 and 2015-2017.
Did Our Secular Bear Market Terminate In 2009? Keep Dreaming Google