The Fundamental Shift That Did Not Happen.

3/30/2016 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 84 points (+0.48%) and the Nasdaq up 22 points (+0.47%) 

I have some good news for the bears. It appears the bulls have declared victory. Not a single bear article to be found and as far as most investors are concerned, the worst is behind us. A congratulatory pat on the back is all that is needed. Consider the following.

• ‘Godfather’ of chart analysis says the stock-market correction is over
• Trader: Listen to Yellen, ignore fundamentals
• Meet the millennials looking to get rich or die tryin’ with one of Wall Street’s riskiest oil plays

My god…..forget the fundamentals, correction is over, “get rich or die tryin” investment advice from high school juniors, every bull gets a gold star, etc…….didn’t we see this movie in 2000? I don’t think I have to tell you how this ends.

Back on the planet Earth, the following fundamental reality persists…..

• Central banks ‘running out of time’ to reflate economies: Bill Gross
• S&P 500’s PEG Ratio at All-Time Highs
• Why I’m So Negative; A Bear-Market Rally; Rig Fight!: Best of Kass
• The number that tells us the economy might be doomed

Now, I understand that the analysis above is a hell of a lot more boring than an advice from a teenager who trades leveraged derivatives in the oil market, but still, the following question persists…..

Did the fundamentals change in a material way since January 20th bottom? 

Sure, Janet Yellen became quite a bit more “dovish” with the interest rates remaining at ZERO and most central bankers around the world did go all in (Central Bank Mafia Goes All In), but I for one don’t consider that to be structurally significant. It is more like hot smoke being blown up investors *#@es.

The following fundamental reality persists. The S&P is selling at the third highest valuation in history. Right behind 1929 and 2000 tops and on par with 2007 top. In the meantime, GAAP earnings are down 18% from a year ago. Forward guidance is expected to decline further during Q-1 earnings season and macro data around the world is pointing to a recession. We are leveraged  to the hilt.  The FED is out of time and recession fighting tools. Investor complacency is all around (VIX/VXX). Etc….

In other words…….what can possibly go wrong???

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 30th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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