12/10/2016 – A big down day with the Dow Jones down 267 points (-1.5%) and the Nasdaq down 82 points (-1.73%).
If there was one uniform “TRUTH” sold by most of Wall Street throughout all of November and early December it was as follows…..”The Santa Claus rally is in the bag and most markets are likely to finish the year at or near all time highs”.
Perhaps. Yet, seasonality is not a fool proof measure. Sometimes it works and sometimes it backfires…..big time. For instance, Novembers are seasonally net negative and/or one of the worst months to hold stocks. Yet, November of 2014 proved to be net positive. More so, both the S&P and the Dow set multiple all time highs during the month. It is too much to expect that December will be a net negative, despite positive seasonality? I don’t think so.
Here is what I am driving at. As of today’s close the Dow is up YTD just 5.8%. How much lower do the markets have to go from today’s levels before hedge fund and mutual fund managers begin to dump everything in sight in an attempt to lock in annual gains. Any kind of gains to ensure that their 2014 is net positive.
Perhaps another 200 down points on the Dow….. maybe 400. Will there be a short-term panic? I think we are about to find out.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE
(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. December 10th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com
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How Much Lower Before Santa Claus Rally Hopefuls Begin Panic Selling? Google