Over the last couple of weeks a slew of reports from every sector of the economy have blamed the weather for everything from a real estate slow down to an outright collapse in fornication. Well, I made that one up. ADP’s payroll report continues the trend by missing it’s job creation target by 20,000 jobs or 13%.. Apparently, it is not the week economy nor the jobless recovery driven by credit that is responsible for weak job creation. No, it’s the weather’s fault. For some reason this same excuse never did work for me when I didn’t do my homework.
Plus, the stock market doesn’t seem to care about the weather. The Nasdaq is up 8% since February 5th. Listen, the reality is much simpler. The US Economy is on a verge of a sharp recession over the next 2-3 years. The recover we have seen so far has been driven by credit and speculation. That is one of the primary reasons you do not see job creations. When the stock market continues it’s bear market leg of 2014-2017 any job gains will quickly turn to massive layoffs. Rain, snow or shine.
Businesses added 139,000 jobs in February, private payroll processor ADP said Wednesday, adding to concerns that the labor market continued to struggle last month amid extreme winter weather.
Economists expected ADP to report 158,000 additional private-sector jobs, according to a consensus forecast. They predict the Labor Department’s more closely watched survey, due Friday, will show 150,000 job gains by businesses and federal, state and local governments.
ADP said that small businesses added 59,000 jobs; mid-size ones, 35,000 and large companies, 44,000.
Professional and business services led job gains, with 33,000. Trade, transportation and utilities added 31,000 and construction firms, 14,000. Manufacturers added 1,000 jobs.
“February was another soft month for the job market,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, which helps ADP compile the report. “Bad winter weather, especially in mid-month, weighed on payrolls. Job growth is expected to improve with warmer temperatures.”
ADP’s estimated payroll advances exceeded Labor’s private-sector additions by an average of 92,000 in December and January, with cold and stormy weather holding down job gains in both months. Overall payroll additions in the Labor report, including government, slowed to 75,000 in December and 113,000 in January from an average pace of more than 200,000 from August through November.
Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist of High Frequency Economics, says ADP’s survey is less sensitive to weather effects than Labor’s tally. With many economists saying adverse weather also dampened payroll advances last month, the ADP report may again serve as a less reliable foreshadowing of Labor’s market-moving figures.
Bad weather across much of the country also has hobbled manufacturing output, housing activity and retail sales recently. Some economists, however, say other forces, such as rising mortgage rates, may also be hampering an economy that’s generally expected to accelerate this year on rising household wealth and falling debt.
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