Many bears believe the future is quite simple. The FED will forgo raising interest rates, the US Dollar will collapse, gold will surge and the stock market will crater. For instance, Peter Schiff: ‘Real Move of Dollar Is Going to Be Crash’
I do not share in such an apocalyptic view. The reality or the financial markets we are dealing with today are a lot more complex. Take a look at the chart above. It clear shows that the US Dollar broke out of a decade long downtrend late last year. This appears to be a structural move higher, not just a quick speculative blow off top.
In other words, the chances of the USD collapsing here are slim. Don’t get me wrong. Nothing moves straight up/down and some volatility is to be expected, but I wouldn’t proclaim that the dollar is about to crash. The market doesn’t see it and I tend to agree.
