4/27/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 41 points (-0.23%) and the Nasdaq down 32 points (-0.63%)
I would hate to poop on everyone’s parade, BUT the Dow is still sitting well bellow its March 2nd top, IBB is collapsing and I can still argue that we have been in a period of distribution or consolidation since July of 2014.
So, why is that I get the same feeling I had at 2007 top? For instance, Stocks can handle whatever the Fed throws at them
Wow, apparently everything is coming up roses and this market is getting ready to surge higher. That’s one way to look at things. And the other? How a $17 Trillion Bull Market Falls Short Relative to Past
“I look at U.S. stocks as very fully priced,” said Robert Arnott, the chairman of Research Affiliates in Newport Beach, California, and a pioneer in the field of fundamental indexing. About $170 billion is managed using his firm’s investment strategies. “Do I view them immediately vulnerable and dangerous? No. I view them dangerous for long-term investors.”
Now we are getting somewhere. I only have one problem with the statement/article above. “Not immediately vulnerable and dangerous….only for long-term investors?”. Based on my work the stock market can correct in one of two ways. A prolonged decline, similar to what we have experienced on the Dow between 2002 and 2003. Or, a quick drop followed by a prolonged period of consolidation. For instance, 1937.
That is to say, today’s stock market environment, given all of the things I talk about on this blog, is about as dangerous as you can imagine. So much so that investors might see a rapid 20-30% correction in a matter of months. And in an environment where most investors truly believe that such an adjustment is impossible, well, that could be a devastating move for quite a few people.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. April 27th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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