World Report Writes: Ignore the Pundits Predicting a Market Crash

 

There are many reasons to be concerned about the market these days. Among them are the government shutdown, the recent run-up of the market and the fear that stocks are currently overvalued.

The problems of trying to time the market are many. Short-term movements are random and unpredictable. Prices change rapidly, making it difficult to predict them with any certainty. Missing a relatively few of the best trading days by “sitting on the sidelines” can have a seriously adverse impact on your returns.

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I oftentimes use the terms “Collapse” of the US Economy and the stock market too loosely here.  This little note is to correct that. I agree with the first premise of the article that you should ignore anyone who is predicting a market crash at this point in time.

My work doesn’t show that activity. It shows a prolonged 2-3 year decline into the 2016 bottom.  Not a huge drop over a short period of time, but a lot of volatility, up and downs,  with a general trend pointing down. Basically, we have to get into the 8,000-9,000 territory on the DOW over the next few years.

However, I do not agree with the premise that the market cannot be timed. It very well can be.  My mathematical work clearly proves that. It is the authors close mindedness that leads him to that unfortunate conclusion.  Yet, instead of arguing the point I will show you how the market can be timed over the next few months. Keep coming back. 

P.S.  After a short discussion with my office mate Jesus M. he has confirmed that there won’t be a crash either.  

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