The situation continues to develop exactly as we have predicted here. While the US is in full control of Kiev and Ukraine’s interim government (recent CIA Director John Brennan visit is a clear indication of that), Russia is gaining a strong hold in East Ukraine through special forces operations and infiltration.
Here is what’s going to happen over the next few days/months. As soon as Ukrainian forces arrive in East Ukraine (it’s kind of unclear where they are right now), expect a number of firefights between Ukrainian forces and Russian special forces already operating in Ukraine. Putin will make the case that Ukrainian forces are killing ethnic Russians and you will see a massive Russian army flood over the Ukrainian border, decimating any resistance in its way.
You will see people in East Ukraine celebrating the move and I see Russia pushing all the way to Dnepr River before stopping. There is nothing in the West Ukraine that Russia wants as 90% of Ukraine’s industrial base is located in the East. As you can imagine, this will cause an international storm of epic proportions. Sanctions and counter sanctions, economic war ware, war rhetoric, cold war, etc….it’s going to get very ugly. One thing is for sure, don’t expect the stock market to react in a positive fashion.
Time frame for all of the above to happen? 2-10 days.
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Kiev Orders “Anti-Terrorism” Operation In East Ukraine. How Long Before Russia Goes In? Google
RT Writes: Kiev launches military operation in eastern Ukraine
Ukraine’s coup-appointed acting President Aleksandr Turchinov has announced a crackdown on anti-government protesters in the north of the Donetsk Region, eastern Ukraine.
Read RT’s LIVE UPDATES for the latest developments in Ukraine
“The anti-terrorist operation started overnight Monday,” said Turchinov. “The aim of these actions is to protect the citizens of Ukraine.”
Anti-government armed men stand guard as pro-Russian supporters gather outside the mayor’s office in Slaviansk April 14, 2014. (Reuters / Gleb Garanich)
According to Turchinov, this ‘anti-terrorist operation’ also aims to prevent “attempts to break Ukraine apart.”
The anti-government protesters in south-eastern Ukraine have recently been protesting against coup-appointed Kiev authorities. They demand constitutional reform that would take into consideration the interests of all Ukrainian regions. They also propose the federalization of the country and to make Russian the second official language in the regions.
Earlier, a clip posted to YouTube showed local people in the town of Rodinskoye, Donetsk Region, who stopped a tank allegedly on its way from Kiev to take part in the crackdown against south-eastern Ukrainian cities
Andrey Parubiy, head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, announced the first battalion of a National Guard “comprised of volunteers from Maidan self-defense troops”, has left Kiev for the south-east.
Yandex Maps
According to Parubiy, the “battalion is comprised of volunteers from the Maidan self-defense troops”.
On Monday, Turchinov signed a decree to officially begin a “special anti-terrorist operation” in the east of the country.
He ordered “that the National Security and Defense Council’s decision of April 13, 2014, ‘On urgent measures to overcome the territorial threat and to preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine’ be put into effect.”
Supporters of a referendum on transforming Ukraine into a federation at the entrance to the building of the Slavyansk City Administration in the Donetsk Region. (RIA Novosti)
Russia has warned that if Kiev uses force against anti-Maidan protests in eastern Ukraine, this would undermine the effort to convene a four-party conference on resolving the crisis in the country, which would include the US, the EU, Russia and Ukraine.
Turchinov also proposed conducting a joint operation with UN peacekeeping forces, a decision that was strongly condemned by Russian FM Sergey Lavrov at a Beijing press conference on Tuesday as “totally unacceptable.”
The Kiev authorities have already tried to launch a so-called “anti-terrorist operation” in the eastern city of Slavyansk, Donetsk Region, after anti-government protesters seized several buildings in the city.
image from Andrey Parubiy Facebook page
Gunfire broke out on Sunday, after troops in black uniforms supported by armored vehicles and several helicopters approached the roadblock set up by the locals. One person was killed and two others injured during the crackdown.
There were rumors that among the troops were the members of the radical ultranationalist Right Sector movement, who were mobilized to take decisive steps to “defend Ukraine’s sovereignty.”