Update: Russian troops and tanks enter Ukraine @ Sevastopol. So it begins.
Well, the American Government and the EU Bureaucrats have done it again. They have “liberated” the people of Ukraine from oppression and injustice. I wonder if there were high fives flying in the Oval Office over the weekend.
Yet, as the Chinese story goes “Maybe it’s good and maybe it’s bad, we shall see”.
I have said it before, but I need to say it again so people have a clear understanding. The US and the EU destabilizing and interfering in the business of Ukraine is equivalent to Russia destabilizing and trying to take over the government of Kentucky. Technically speaking, Russia and Ukraine is a unified state going back thousands of years. I would argue that it is idiotic at best and extremely dangerous at its worst for the western world to interfere in Russia’s and Ukraine’s business.
Luckily, I am not alone in thinking this way. Here is an open letter from Ron Paul: “Leave Ukraine Alone”
What most people don’t understand is this…… Russia and Putin in particular will never allow Ukraine to become a part of EU or worst NATO. They will go to whatever extent necessary to make sure that doesn’t happen. Even if it means going to war. Also, it is only half of the Ukraine (western half, the poorer half) wanting closer ties with the EU. The other half (wealthier industrial eastern part) wants nothing to do with it. They want to have closer ties with Russia. So, when American politicians scream out “Ukrainian People Want Freedom From The Tyranny of Russia” they are talking about 25% of Ukraine’s population. Either way you twist it, this is a ticking time bomb.
With Olympics now over, Russia has a lot more room to maneuver. It will be interesting to see what develops over the next few weeks. I see 2 outcomes.
1. In the past, Russia and Putin have proved to be good strategists. They might give an indication that they are stepping aside by allowing the EU and World Bank to try and bail Ukraine out by pumping billions of dollars into Ukraine’s economy. Over the next few years, through various political actions and economic positioning Russia will, once again, replace Ukraine’s leader with their own “puppet” as they have done so many times before. Of course, Western powers will never see their money again. This is the most likely outcome and exactly what I would do.
2. However, if Russia is pushed too hard and too far, they WILL sanction and execute some sort of a military action in Ukraine. With the EU and the US interfering in its business, Russia might literally have no other choice.
Which option will play out? Only time will tell, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of military intervention over the next few weeks. Will Obama draw his “Red Line” again and send in the Marines to protect newly liberated Ukrainian people? Yeah right. I truly feel sorry for the Ukrainian people who believe that the West will come to their rescue.
One thing is for sure. Neither the US nor the EU have any business interfering in this part of the world. Doing so might lead to an all out conflict with Russia and a new Cold War. Unfortunately, it looks as if it is exactly what some of our leaders want.
MARKET UPDATE:
The market surged higher right at the open with the Dow Jones appreciating +103 point (0.64%) and with the Nasdaq gaining +29 points (0.69%) for the day.
With most speculative issues appreciating the most, the question I see from a lot of the bears anticipating a collapse….. Is this is the “blow off” top? As I have mentioned so many times before, the bear market of 2014-2017 will not be directional. While it will have a general down trend, it will not present us with a directional move as it did between 2007-09. That means a lot of volatility and a lot of powerful ups/downs that will surely confuse and frustrate both bulls and bears. With that said, what does it say of today’s market?
Our last inflection point was located at……. XXXX.
Not quite yet. This market is certainty not making things easy for our trading position as it continues to push upper ranges of what is possible if February XXXX was indeed a turning point.
There is couple of reasons for my hesitation.
1. All indices have opened up a gap in the morning. Typically, the market comes back to close this gap over the next few trading days. While the market can do so during the next leg down, it closes it within the next 3 trading days 70% of the time. Indicating a high % possibility of a short-term decline.
2. My calculations show an alternative top at today’s top of XXXX. It is hard to explain, but at times the market produces gaps within its own mathematical structure. It might be the case here.
In summary, it’s too early to call the market either way. While it is pushing upper boundaries, it is possible….. XXXX.
What are we to do?
Maintain our positions as described below while watching the market on an hourly chart. If the Dow breaks above XXXX we must nullify our XXXX top. If that is the case, the market is likely to continue higher. Not much higher, but high enough to close the gap that was left at 16,400 on the Dow.
If No Position: XXXX
If Long: XXXX
If Short/Trader: XXXX
Please Note: XXXX is available to our premium subscribers in our + Subscriber Section. It’s FREE to start.
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Make No Mistake, Russia WILL Go To War Over Ukraine. Plus, Market Update Google
agree about the Russian anger, but Kentucky is USA, Ukraine is – Ukraine. There are Americans living in Kentucky, there are mostly Ukrainians living in Ukraine. Ukraine is a business of Ukrainians, not Americans, not Russians. Russians thought that Yugoslavia was their business ,too, they gave support to Milosevic and serbian troops while they were bombarding Sarajevo and if there wasn’t the american intervention the war in Bosnia(and Kosovo) would be still on. I don’t like NATO or any other military organization, but between two evils(USA&Putin) I’ll choose America. Ask the Czech, Pollacks, Chechnyans..what’s their opinion about mother Russia? Unfortunately for Ukraine, I see Bosnian scenario here. I hope I’m wrong.
Ukraine has always been part of Russia. It goes back thousands of years. Same people….everyone speaks Russian. I was born there…I know
Kiev was the first Russian capital, I think. Yes, Ukraine is closely connected with Russia, but Ukraine should be for Ukrainians (in some prefect world). The point was: big nations like USA, Russia, China have the same goal – world domination. Somehow, the Americans have better result for now, but the intentions matters at the end. About the false hope that west gives to the people of Ukraine – agree here also, but ask the Serbs from Kosovo about the hopes that Russia gives to them. I know, I live 30km from Kosovo(in Macedonia). I like Russian people, don’t get me wrong, I’m orthodox christian, we (Macedonians) have also Slav roots, our language is similar to Russian, we also write in Cyrillic. But I don’t like Russian politicians which are the biggest enemy of the Russian people, not the Americans, not EU. And Russia will lose this war, also. All that USA have to do is break the price of the oil to $30 and Russian economy will collapse. To resume, USA and Russia would never fight against each other, but will use smaller nations to fight for them (Serbs,Albanians,Ukrainians..). Sad but true. It’s like a chess. Smaller nations are just figures.
Hi Bobby,
I agree with everything you say. Everyone losses when politicians pull this crap. However, this situation is a little bit different for the following reason. The US, EU and NATO have been pocking Russia for quite some time now. They did the same thing in Georgia, they have tried in Belorussia and now they are trying again in Ukraine. They shouldn’t be doing that. The problem is……if Russia doesn’t respond in force, the Americans and EU will just keep pushing the envelope. I don’t why, but Russia has no choice but to respond in force. I wish that wasn’t the case….but it’s the game they play. But you are right, real people suffer because of these stupid games.
Ukrainians should be aware of the fact that West won’t save them from any Russian intervention against Ukraine and any provocation of the Russian element in the country should be avoided. Because Russia is much stronger than Ukraine, it’s simple. I agree about the dirty games that West is playing with the Russian bear like pushing it to the wall. Georgian scenario from ’08 is very likely. Ukrainian people/leaders should play very,very vise in this period.
About the markets, I found a chart which points to insider selling in these days and in the same time S&P making highs..danger on the road.
Hi Bobby,
Thank you for your comment. Yeah, we are on the same page for the most part. Yep, check out our premium section for exact market timing if you wish. There is a 14 day trial period.
Alex
[quote]Russia and Ukraine is a unified state going back thousands of years.[/quote]
Just like China and Tibet is a “unified state”, right?
Hi Derek,
Thanks for your comment. No, China/Tibet is a complete different story when compared to Ukraine/Russia.