Netflix is on fire after beating it’s earnings by 3 cents. The company earned $1.27 billion (24% growth) in revenue for the quarter and surpassed 35 million subscribers. All in all, a very impressive quarter, growth and future. The stock is up 7% at market open.
So, should you sell your firstborn or pawn you liver to buy more Netflix shares?
No. First, the stock is incredibly overpriced by any fundamental measure. More importantly, we are on the verge of a massive bear markets that will last between 2014-2017. This bear market will be particularly hard on the high flyers such as Netflix, Tesla, Facebook, etc… When we look at Netflix chart, it has a number of large gaps leading all the way down to $100/share. In short, it must close such gaps (including today’s gap) before any sustained rally can take place.
Given our mathematical and timing work, we would expect to see $50-100 for Netflix before we see $500/share as some analyst expect. As such, it might make sense to pawn your liver to short Netflix.
What mathematical and timing work? Our work shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. When it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning exactly when the bear market will start (to the day) and its subsequent internal composition, please CLICK HERE
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Netflix Beats. Should You Pawn Your Liver To Buy More Shares? Google
Netflix Inc Delivers Strong Earnings and International Growth, Sending Shares on a Wild Ride
Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX ) just released results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2014. The price of Netflix shares fluctuated wildly on the news, first falling as much as 6.1% before rising 7.8% above Monday’s closing price.
Management guidance for the first quarter had pointed to 2.25 million net new domestic subscribers and 1.6 million new international accounts. These numbers had been expected to drive earnings to $0.78 per share. The domestic forecast turned out to be spot-on while Netflix snagged 1.75 million new international accounts in the quarter, thus exceeding the midpoint of official guidance overall.
Netflix now has 35.7 million streaming members in the U.S. and 12.7 million international members.
All in all, Netflix saw revenues increase 24% year over year to $1.27 billion. GAAP earnings per share jumped from $0.05 per share to $0.86 per share.
Revenues were in line with analyst estimates. Netflix exceeded Wall Street’s earnings targets by $0.3 per share.
Looking ahead, Netflix cited seasonal patterns and the 2014 FIFA World Cup limiting subscriber additions in the second quarter. The company should add about 0.11 million domestic subscribers and 0.9 million international additions in the current quarter, it said.
Moreover, Netflix now expects the international segment to turn profitable by the end of 2014. However, a “substantial expansion into new European markets,” slated for the second half of the year, will drag the division back into red-ink territory.
Expect this pattern to continue as long as Netflix sees new overseas growth opportunities: “As we’ve discussed in prior investor letters, we intend to continue our international expansion over the coming years, so our near term profits will be quite modest as we invest in this large global opportunity,” management said in a prepared statement.
Netflix said it is preparing to raise its Internet video subscription prices by as much as $2 per month this summer for new members. The price increase will be imposed on new customers by July. The company said current U.S. subscribers will continue to pay $7.99 per month for a “generous time period.”