6/15/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 35 points (-0.20%) and the Nasdaq down 9 points (-0.18%)
It is becoming abundantly clear that the Fed won’t be raising interest rates anytime soon. As we have maintained here for over two years.
With that in mind and as a consequence, here is the fundamental setup we are facing today.
General Overvaluation:
The stock market is selling at the third highest valuation level in history. On par with 1929 and 2007 tops, and slightly below tech driven 2000 spike higher. 
Revenues, Earnings and Economic Data:
There are too many data points to cover in this short summary, but we have been talking about them for years. For instance, GAAP Earnings Collapse 18% As Valuations Approach “Insane Levels” So much so that multiple observers or analysts might argue that the US Economy is already in recession. You can presently find quite a few economic indicators at their respective 2008 and 2009 lows.
No Fuel Left:
Simpy put, the Fed is done. Even today’s more dovish tone has failed to produce a rally. Here is the hard cold truth. The FED can cut interest rates by a laughable 25 bps before we are at zero again.
Sure, they can talk tough and suggest another round of QE or even negative interest rates. At the same time, they won’t do so until the stock market receives a good beating. Even then, how much can the above propel the market…… a few hundred or a thousand points on the Dow? Perhaps.
All things being equal the EU and Japan point to an unsettling conclusion. Crazy talk, zero interest rates, QE and outright monetization will eventually fail to push the market further.
That is to say, call me insane, but I don’t see how any of this ends well.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. June 15th, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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