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Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – February 2nd, 2018

– State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow is back below 26,000
  • Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 33.76 Off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 69 – overbought. Daily RSI is at 46 – neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 18,800 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 88 – overbought. Daily at 40 – neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -90. Oversold.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX remains at suppressed levels. Commercial VIX long interest has dropped substantially and is now only at 22K contracts net long. 
  • Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have maintained their positioning.  For now, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 4X net short, Russell 2000 is now at 4X net short and the Nasdaq is net neutral.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the Wilshire 5000. Charts courtesy Daneric’s Elliott Waves

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it. 

Posted on

The Most Important Chart No One Is Paying Attention To

A great look at the subject matter from Wolf Richter.

Fed’s QE Unwind Accelerates Sharply

by  •  • 22 Comments

With a sense of urgency. No more dilly-dallying around.

The Fed’s balance sheet for the week ending January 31, released this afternoon, completes the fourth month of QE-unwind. And it’s starting to be a doozie.

This “balance sheet normalization” impacts two types of assets: Treasury securities and mortgage backed securities (MBS) that the Fed acquired during the years of QE and maintained afterwards.

The Fed’s plan, as announced in September, is to shrink the balances of Treasuries and MBS by up to $10 billion per month in October, November, and December 2017, then to accelerate the pace every three months. In January, February, and March 2018, the unwind would be capped at $20 billion a month; in Q2, at $30 billion a month; in Q3, at $40 billion a month; and starting in Q4, at $50 billion a month.

According to this plan, balances of Treasuries and MBS will shrink by $420 billion in 2018, by an additional $600 billion in 2019, and by additional $600 every year going forward until the Fed deems the level of its holdings “normal.” Whatever this level may turn out to be, it will be much higher than the level suggested by the growth trajectory before the Financial Crisis.

For January, the plan called for shedding up to $20 billion: $12 billion in Treasuries and $8 billion in MBS.

So how did it go?

On its December 27 balance sheet, the Fed had $2,454 billion of Treasuries. By January 31, it had $2,436 billion: a drop of $18 billion in one month!

This exceeds the planned drop of $12 billion for January. But hey, over the holidays, most folks at the New York Fed, which does the balance sheet operations, were probably off and not much happened. And so this may have been a catch-up action, with a sense of urgency.

In total, since the beginning of the QE Unwind, the balance of Treasuries has plunged by $30 billion, to hit the lowest since August 27, 2014. This part of the QE Unwind is happening:

The jagged down movement in the chart is a result of the way the Fed unwinds its QE. It does not sell the securities. It allows them to “roll off” its balance sheet. It works this way:

Treasuries mature in mid-month and at the end of the month. For example, on January 31, about $27 billion of the Fed’s Treasuries matured. The Treasury Department redeemed those securities (normal bondholders would be paid face value). But the Fed has a special arrangement with the Treasury Department that cuts out the middlemen.

To maintain the level of Treasuries, the Fed would “roll over” these securities directly with the Treasury Department – replacing maturing securities with new securities.

But under the QE unwind, the Fed allows part of those securities to “roll off” rather than allowing them to “roll over.” In other words, the Fed does not replace some of the maturing securities and instead gets paid for them.

Of the $27 billion in Treasuries that matured yesterday, the Fed “rolled over” $16 billion (replaced them) and allowed $11 billion to “roll off” (got paid for them). The blue arrow in the chart above shows this big one-day move.

MBS: a jagged line and a lag of two to three months.

The Fed acquired residential MBS guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae as part of QE. Now, it’s supposed to shed them at a pace of $4 billion a month in Q4 last year and $8 billion a month in Q1 this year. So how did it go?

Residential MBS differ from regular bonds. The issuer (Fannie Mae et al.) passes through principal payments to MBS holders as underlying mortgages get paid down or get paid off. Thus, the principal shrinks in uneven increments until the remainder is redeemed at maturity.

To keep the MBS balance steady, the New York Fed’s Open Market Operations (OMO) buys MBS in the “to-be-announced market” (TBA market). The actual MBS is not designated at the time of the trade but will be announced 48 hours before the established settlement date, which can be two to three months later.

The Fed accounts for its MBS on a settlement-date basis. So there is a mismatch between the date the Fed receives principal payments and the date reinvestment trades settle. Hence the jagged line in the chart below.

Since MBS take two to three months to settle, the first declines weren’t expected to show up on the Fed’s balance sheet until sometime December. But since MBS balances have large weekly variations due to the timing issues, those early declines were hard to see.

This is why we look for “lower highs” and “lower lows” with a lag of two to three months, which is what we see in January, a reflection of trades that took place around November:

At the end of October, before the MBS Unwind became visible, the Fed held $1,770.2 billion in MBS, at the low point of the period. On today’s balance sheet, also the low point in the chart, the Fed shows $1,760.7 billion. From low to low, the balance dropped $9.5 billion. This reflects trades from two to three months ago. So even the MBS Unwind is now clearly visible.

In early December, I published my article with the above explanations about why we hadn’t yet seen the MBS Unwind. About a month later, the NY Fed published its own article, confirming my explanations, including the reasons behind the jagged line and that MBS take two to three months to settle.

So why all this noise in the overall balance sheet?

Total assets have dropped by $41 billion since the QE Unwind began, the lowest since September 3, 2014:

But why all this noise in the chart? The Fed has other roles that cause assets and liabilities to fluctuate. Among them: it is the official banker of the US government. The US Treasury keeps its cash balances on deposit at the Fed (rather than JP Morgan). When the balance fluctuates, is causes the Fed’s assets and liabilities to fluctuate, as they would with any bank.

Similarly, the Fed holds “Foreign Official Deposits” by other central banks and governments. And the Fed has other functions that impact the overall balance sheet (explained here). But movements caused by these functions have nothing to do with QE or with the QE Unwind.

For the QE Unwind, only Treasuries and MBS matter. And the Fed is shedding them — after everyone had said for years that it could never shed them. The Treasury market may be finally paying attention: The 10-year yield closed today at 2.78%, the highest since April 2014.

Just as the Fed accelerates its QE Unwind, and as Treasuries react, the government is planning to sell a massive pile of new debt. Read…  US National Debt Will Jump by $617 Billion in 5 Months

Posted on

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – February 1st, 2018 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the Wilshire 5000. Charts courtesy Daneric’s Elliott Waves

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it. 

Posted on

Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get

It is no secret that the stock market is historically overpriced. So much so that I have argued we are experiencing the highest valuation levels in history. Higher than 1929, 2007 and even 2000 (if we adjust for lack of tech earnings). Prior smaller peaks of 1937, 1966, 1972, 1987, etc…. don’t even come close.

This is best illustrated by the Shiller’s Adjusted P/E Ratio below.

So, what gives?

First, the sentiment….. Retail investors haven’t been THIS bullish since (gulp) you know when

Since February 2016, the overall index has soared 98 points, “the largest increase in the 20-year history of the index that is not a rebound immediately after a major drop in optimism.” This is the kind of move contrarians eat up.

“In 1999 and early 2000, high enthusiasm for stocks was a powerful sign the stock-market bubble was on its last legs,” Richter said. “Of course, no one can say how much higher their enthusiasm will surge this time around. Hype works, until it doesn’t.”

Buy High Sell Low…….Right?

Second, the driving force….Central Banks Have Purchased $2 Trillion In Assets In 2017

In his latest “flow report”, BofA’s Michael Hartnett looks at the “Disconnect Myth” between rising stocks and bonds and summarizes succinctly that there is “no disconnect between stocks & bonds.”

Why? The best, and simplest, explanation for low yields & high stocks is simple: so far in 2017 there has been $1.96 trillion of central bank purchases of financial assets in 2017 alone, as central bank balance sheets have grown by $11.26 trillion since Lehman to $15.6 trillion. Hartnett concedes that the second best explanation is bonds pricing in low CPI (increasingly a new structurally low level of inflation due to tech disruption of labor force) while equities price in high EPS (with little on horizon to meaningfully reverse trend), although there is no reason why the second can’t flow from the first.

And there you have it ladies and gentlemen. 

  1. The market is incredibly expensive. Record breaking expensive. Even if we take low yields into consideration.
  2. Idiot central bankers are terrified of what happens next. Instead of letting the bubbles deflate they have juiced them to unimaginable levels. And in nearly all assets classes.
  3. So much so that most retail investors now believe stocks will never go down. And even if they do it will be a BTFD situation.

We all have been here before and we all know what happens next.  It is different this time as so many believe? Perhaps, but if you truly believe that I still have some Pets.com stock to sell you.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

Posted on

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – January 31st, 2018

– State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains above 26,000
  • Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 34.15 Now at arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 81 – overbought. Daily RSI is at 64.90 – overbought.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 18,800 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 95 – overbought. Daily at 70 – overbought.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -4. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX remains at suppressed levels. Commercial VIX long interest remained the same at 50K contracts net long. 
  • Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have maintained their positioning.  For now, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 4X net short, Russell 2000 is now at 4X net short and the Nasdaq is net neutral.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.