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The Cost Of Missing Out On Today’s Rally Is Staggering

Or so says the mainstream financial media. According to them, you must be some sort of a crazy lunatic not to believe in what the market is doing. After all, the returns are easy and sweet.

I have personally heard it all before at 2000 and 2007 tops. And I have read about the many other instances where the above statement makes a rare appearance. Just take a brief look at how bullish this article is……

Bloomberg: The Cost of Missing the Market Boom Is Skyrocketing

Skepticism in global equity markets is getting expensive.

From Japan to Brazil and the U.S. as well as places like Greece and Ukraine, an epic year in equities is defying naysayers and rewarding anyone who staked a claim on corporate ownership. Records are falling, with about a quarter of national equity benchmarks at or within 2 percent of an all-time high.

You’ve heard people being bearish for eight years. They were wrong,” said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at St. Petersburg, Florida-based Raymond James Financial Inc., which oversees $500 billion. “The proof is in the returns.”

To put this year’s gains in perspective, the value of global equities is now 3 1/2 times that at the financial crisis bottom in March 2009. Aided by an 8 percent drop in the U.S. currency, the dollar-denominated capitalization of worldwide shares appreciated in 2017 by an amount — $20 trillion — that is comparable to the total value of all equities nine years ago.

And yet skeptics still abound, pointing to stretched valuations or policy uncertainty from Washington to Brussels. Those concerns are nothing new, but heeding to them is proving an especially costly mistake.

Clinging to such concerns means discounting a harmonized recovery in the global economy that’s virtually without precedent — and set to pick up steam, according to the International Monetary Fund. At the same time, inflation remains tepid, enabling major central banks to maintain accommodative stances.

“When policy is easy and growth is strong, this is an environment more conducive for people paying up for valuations,” said Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley. “The markets are up in line with what the earnings have done, and stronger earnings helped drive a higher level of enthusiasm and a higher level of risk taking.”

The numbers are impressive: more than 85 percent of the 95 benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg worldwide are up this year, on course for the broadest gain since the bull market started. Emerging markets have surged 31 percent, developed nations are up 16 percent.

Big companies are becoming huge, from Apple Inc. to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Technology megacaps occupy all top six spots in the ranks of the world’s largest companies by market capitalization for the first time ever.

Up 39 percent this year, the $1 trillion those firms added in value equals the combined worth of the world’s six-biggest companies at the bear market bottom in 2009. Apple, priced at $810 billion, is good for the total value of the 400 smallest companies in the S&P 500.

Overall, U.S. corporate earnings are expected to rise 11 percent this year, on track to be the best profit growth since 2010. And after years of disappointments, European profits are set to climb 14 percent in 2017, Bloomberg data show. The expectations for both regions are are roughly in line with forecasts made at the beginning of the year, defying the usual pattern of analysts downgrading their estimates as the months go by.

Meanwhile, Asia is home to some of the world’s steepest rallies, led by Hong Kong stocks that are up 29 percent this year. Shares in Tokyo also hit fresh decade highs this week, bolstered by investor confidence before the local corporate earnings season and a snap election this month.

“Asia will benefit from continued improving regional growth, stable macroeconomic conditions and undemanding valuations,” said BNP Paribas Asset Management’s head of Asia Pacific equities Arthur Kwong. Any pullback in Asian equities after the year-to-date rally presents a buying opportunity for long-term investors, he wrote in a note.

Global economic growth has been robust in most places, with Europe finally joining the party and the euro-area economy on track for its best year since at least 2010. The region’s steady recovery has eclipsed worries about populism, which a few years ago would have been enough to derail any stock market rally.

“I’ve never been so optimistic about the global economy,” said Vincent Juvyns, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “Ten years after the financial crisis, Europe is recovering and we have synchronized economic growth around the world. Even if we get it wrong on a country or two, it doesn’t change the big picture, which is positive for the equity markets.”

Alright, alright……..I am a believer. Here, take my money and buy me those FANG things. And don’t forget some Bitcoin. I’ve never been so optimistic about any of this. 

On a more serious note and if you recall, these views were nowhere to be found at 2016 lows. On the contrary, many of the same people were expecting a collapse. Now they are as optimistic as ever. Perhaps that should be taken as a warning sign.

Finally and if history is any guide, be careful, the market might wipe out the above gains and excitement in a matter of days. Sending the cost of participating in this rally to the moon and back.

In terms of the stock market, the situation is incredibly complex. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here.

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – October 12th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Concrete Proof That President Trump Is NOT A Rational Human Being

People often ask me why I have turned on Mr. Trump after voting for him in November.

The answer is rather simple.

First, he flipped on nearly every issue he has campaigned on. Most notably, he has turned into a psychotic warmonger who has brought us all to the edge of abyss that is nuclear war.

Further, my simple analysis suggest that Trump is either a complete idiot, irrational, a liar, borderline insane and/or all of the above. 

Let me give you just two examples…..

Trump’s Touts “$5.2 Trillion” In Stock Gains, Promises More If “Congress Gives Us Massive Tax Cuts”

 “Stock Market has increased by 5.2 Trillion dollars since the election on November 8th, a 25% increase. Lowest unemployment in 16 years and if Congress gives us the massive tax cuts (and reform) I am asking for, those numbers will grow by leaps and bounds.”

“It would be really nice if the Fake News Media would report the virtually unprecedented Stock Market growth since the election.Need tax cuts”

We have discussed this before. Only a liar or a stupid person would claim ownership of this stock market bubble. Especially after suggesting that we are in a massive bubble during the presidential campaign. And only 25% increase? That’s pathetic Mr. President. It was up 200%+ under Obama.

Trump tells Hannity that Wall Street gains ‘in a sense’ are a cut in national debt

“The country, we took it over and owed over $20 trillion,” Trump said. “As you know, the last eight years, they borrowed more than it did in the whole history of our country. So they borrowed more than $10 trillion, right? And yet, we picked up $5.2 trillion just in the stock market. Possibly picked up the whole thing in the first nine months, in terms of value. So you could say, in one sense, we’re really increasing values. And maybe in a sense we’re reducing debt. But we’re very honored by it.”

Umm…..where do I even begin with this.

For those of you mathematically challenged, President Trump is basically promoting a Ponzi Finance model in order to justify his apparent success thus far. I say “thus far” because things are about to swing the other way.

So, what Mr. Trump is saying is this. Janet Yellen has printed/borrowed $10 Trillion (without counting other central fraudsters EU/JP) and the stock market has managed to increase by $5 Trillion. WOW. If we keep going on this trajectory it is just a matter of time before we all drive Ferraris and play Polo.

Again, I ask, is Mr. Trump a complete idiot, irrational, a liar, borderline insane and/or all of the above. Oh, I almost forgot, a genius playing 16–Dimensional chess we mere mortals don’t understand. You decide.

In terms of the stock market, the situation is incredibly complex. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here. 

Trade Of The Day – OIL

Oil has been compressing into a multi-year wedge. A wedge that is about to terminate. The question becomes, will oil surge higher or as some suggest, collapse. We have an answer. To find out, please Click Here

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – October 11th, 2017

– State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow is now approaching 23,000.
  • Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 31.18 Now at arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 77 – overbought. Daily RSI is at 81 overbought.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 18,100 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 99.53- overbought. Daily at 97 – severely overbought.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +8. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX remains at suppressed levels. Commercial VIX long interest increased to 105K contracts net long. 
  • Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning back to net short. Short interest has shifted slightly higher during the week. For now, the Dow is 11X, the S&P is at 3X net short, Russell 2000 is back to 5X net short and the Nasdaq is net neutral.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:


Trade Of The Day – High Yield Junk (HYG)

High Yield Junk (HYG) continues its wedge compression. Which way will it break, when and how to take advantage of it? To find out, please Click Here