Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – August 29th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition
ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:
Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.
Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.
Explanation:
Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here
Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.
ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.
Civil War 2.0 – Made In America By The MSM
Bear with me for a second as we go back 20 years to much simpler times.
Yes, the beautiful 1997. Bill Clinton was getting BJs in the oval office, you were probably buying Pets.com and there was no immediate threat of a nuclear war.
Now, imagine for a second that I told you that 20 years later, in 2017, Americans would be literally killing each other over Civil War monuments and a movie.”Gone With the Wind”. Polarizing the society to such an extent that quite a few prominent people are seriously bringing up the possibility of a new American Civil War.
One thing is certain, if I shared the above with anyone, I would have been laughed out of the building. Yet, that is the reality we live in today.
What has happened?
The MSM in America has manufactured ‘fake’ discontent and violence against all Americans. Here is another perfect example….
Mainstream Media Manufactures ‘Scandal’ Over Nonexistent Trump Moscow Hotel
A new Washington Post story has revealed US President Donald Trump’s efforts to build a hotel in Moscow in 2015, as the Post continues its campaign to prove a connection between Trump and the Russian leadership.
The conclusion is rather sobering. Most MSM shills should be treated as treasonous enemy combatants who have killed the very fabric of Americana. This classification will become very significant as things unfold over the next 10-15 years.
Trade Of The Day – USD
We executed a trade in the USD (DXY) on Monday at $92.49. An incredibly important juncture. Find out what that trade was (long, short, hedge, exit, etc…) and why. To learn more please Click Here.
Plus, if you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.
Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – August 28th, 2017
– State of the Market Address:
- The Dow finds itself back below 22,000.
- Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.90 Slightly off highs, but still…..arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
- Weekly RSI at 67.17 – neutral. Daily RSI is at 50.60 – neutral.
- Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,950 today (on weekly).
- Weekly Stochastics at 73.84 – overbought. Daily at 35.02 – neutral.
- NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -9. Neutral to slightly oversold..
- Volatility measures VIX/VXX have spiked higher off of recent their historic lows during the week. Commercial VIX long interest was lower. Now at 70K contracts net long.
- Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning back to net neutral. Short interest has shifted slightly lower during the week. For now, the Dow is 7X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq are net neutral. That is a substantial short position against the market.
In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead. Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.
ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.
Will The Plunge Protection Team Turn On President Trump
The New York Post asks an important question
Can the feds, Wall Street prevent another market plunge?
Based on those two facts, I’ve always been very suspicious that Washington, with the help of friends on Wall Street, has been protecting the market. That seemed to be proven during the Great Recession, when US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson had numerous calls with Goldman Sachs right in the middle of the crisis and right before markets started turning better.
So, can these same people turn on Trump and let the markets plunge?
Sure, except that most of the players you refer to also have their personal fortunes tied up in the stock market.
The is no easy way to answer the question above. One thing is certain, President Trump has set himself up for a fall should the stock market collapse. We discussed it previously……. This Idiocracy Will Hunt President Trump For The Rest Of His Life
Here is my personal view.
First, most (95% or above) of the market participants believe the FED will indeed backstop any large scale correction. Not only that, most investors believe that the FED/Government is in complete control of the market. That is a fallacy. Whether or not there is a play against Trump is irrelevant.
What is relevant is that the market will overwhelm the FED at exactly the wrong time. By the time most investors realize the FED is powerless, due to their inability to cut interest rates, it will be too late to sell. Act accordingly.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – August 25th, 2017
– State of the Market Address:
- The Dow finds itself back below 22,000.
- Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.90 Slightly off highs, but still…..arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
- Weekly RSI at 67.17 – neutral. Daily RSI is at 50.60 – neutral.
- Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,950 today (on weekly).
- Weekly Stochastics at 73.84 – overbought. Daily at 35.02 – neutral.
- NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -9. Neutral to slightly oversold..
- Volatility measures VIX/VXX have spiked higher off of recent their historic lows during the week. Commercial VIX long interest was lower. Now at 70K contracts net long.
- Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning back to net neutral. Short interest has shifted slightly lower during the week. For now, the Dow is 7X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq are net neutral. That is a substantial short position against the market.
In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead. Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.
ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.
ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:
Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.
Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.
Explanation:
Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here
Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.
ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.
Truly Shocking: Find Out Why Today’s Stock Market Is Following 1929 Pre-Crash Trajectory
Sentiment: Incredibly Bullish
Open any financial media outlet today and you will be greeted with the following nonsense.
Please note something of significant importance here. People are now making “sure bet” prediction about highly speculative bets. In other words, shoe shine boys are now sure “this thing” is going higher.
Valuations: Highest In History
As the charts above suggests, valuations are now above 1929 peak. In last week’s update I have argued that we are now sitting at the highest valuation level in history. You can see it here
Now, most bulls will argue that today’s valuation are justified by low interest rates. Sorry….
While there is much to debate about the current level of interest rates and future stock market returns, it is clear is the 30-year decline in rates did not mitigate two extremely nasty bear markets since 1998, just as falling rates did not mitigate the crash in 1929 and the subsequent depression.
Do low-interest rates justify high valuations?
History suggests not. It is likely a trap which will once again leave investors with the four “B’s” following the next recession – Beaten, Battered, Bruised and Broke.
Take that Warren Buffett
Presidential Election: Hoover Vs. Trump. Same shit – different name.
On November 6th, 1928 Republican Herbert Hoover won the US Presidency. The stock market took off like crazy after Mr. President has offered the moon. Instead, what he delievered was a trade war that deepened the great depression. Trump, Trade Wars, And The Traumatic Example Of The 1930s. Sounds familiar?
Who said history doesn’t repeat itself. That is to say, replace Hoover with Trump and we have ourselves a perfect match.
Growth: What Growth?
Now, I would be the first one to admit that today’s valuation levels can be justified if the US went on some sort of an economic or earnings growth spurt. Yet, as I have argued here On Friday The S&P Hit Its Highest Valuation Level In HISTORY – Find Out What Happens Next, that is nearly impossible. And I am not the only one who thinks that way. Consider this……
Don’t fight the FED.
Finally, most bullish investors today will dismiss all of the above based on a simple premise. The FED will backstop any correction and/or flood the system with money in case of an emergency.
Perhaps they will and that might even work. At the same time, consider the following data point
But I think that if your investment mantra is “don’t fight the Fed”, you now must have a short bias to both the U.S. equity and bond markets, not the long bias that you’ve been so well trained and so well rewarded to maintain over the past eight years. This is a sea change in how to navigate a policy-driven market, and it’s a sea change I expect to last for years.
Make no mistake, an absolute bloodbath in equity markets is steaming our way. The only remaining question is…… when? If you would like to find out exactly when this sell-off will start, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here.
