– State of the Market Address:

• The Dow finds itself back below 22,000.
• Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.89 Off highs, but still…..arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
• Weekly RSI at 72.67  – overbought. Daily RSI is at 62.09 – neutral..
• Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,900 today (on weekly).
• Weekly Stochastics at 989.62 – overbought. Daily at 53.41 – neutral.
• NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -35. Neutral.
• Volatility measures VIX/VXX have spiked higher off of their historic lows during the week. Commercial VIX long interest remains the same. Now at 100K contracts net long. 
• Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 2.5X, Russell 2000 is net neutral and the Nasdaq is at 2X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

– State of the Market Address:

• The Dow finds itself back below 22,000.
• Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.89 Off highs, but still…..arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
• Weekly RSI at 70.84  – overbought. Daily RSI is at 55.67 – neutral..
• Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,900 today (on weekly).
• Weekly Stochastics at 93.14 – overbought. Daily at 59.61 – neutral.
• NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -82. Oversold.
• Volatility measures VIX/VXX have spiked higher off of their historic lows during the week. Commercial VIX long interest remains the same. Now at 100K contracts net long. 
• Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 2.5X, Russell 2000 is net neutral and the Nasdaq is at 2X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

– State of the Market Address:

• The Dow has broken above 22,000.
• Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 30.30  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
• Weekly RSI at 79.66  – overbought. Daily RSI is at 77.68 – overbought.
• Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,850 today (on weekly).
• Weekly Stochastics at 99.66- overbought. Daily at 98.75 -overbought.
• NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -17. Neutral.
• Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest increased somewhat. Now at 100K contracts net long. 
• Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 4X, the S&P is at 2.5X, Russell 2000 is at 1.5X and the Nasdaq is at 2X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

When investors look back in history they are often amazed how they couldn’t see the forest through the trees.

Back in 2000 it was the new economy and “this time is different” valuation metrics. The tech stocks and bearish fools on Wall Streets who couldn’t understand the “new” market. In 2007 it was “real estate never goes down” and outright mortgage fraud securitization game.

Well, we might be right at one of those junctures today. With valuation levels at historic highs and hard economic data collapsing, some of the most prominent bulls out there are beginning to suggest that this market will never go down. Consider the following……

Jim Paulsen: “The Bull Market Could Continue Forever”

 “We’ve got a fully employed economy, rising real wages. We restarted the corporate earnings cycle. We’ve got strong confidence among business and consumers.”

“The kick is we can do all of this without aggravating inflation and interest rates.”

“If that’s going to continue, I think the bull market could continue to forever.”

My question is rather simple…..haven’t we seen this movie before? 

As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me, fool me three times……..

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

– State of the Market Address:

• The Dow has broken above 22,000.
• Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 30.30  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
• Weekly RSI at 79.39  – overbought. Daily RSI is at 76.68 – overbought.
• Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,850 today (on weekly).
• Weekly Stochastics at 97.20- overbought. Daily at 97.74 -overbought.
• NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -19. Neutral.
• Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest increased somewhat. Now at 100K contracts net long. 
• Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 4X, the S&P is at 2.5X, Russell 2000 is at 1.5X and the Nasdaq is at 2X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

Please note, Gold has been trading within the confines of a large and long-term compressing wedge. Before the wedge terminates early next year, Gold will either breakout or breakdown.

Initial targeting suggests Gold will surge to at least $1,600 if breakout occurs and as low as $800 if its the other other way around.

Now, Gold bugs would be quick to point out that Gold at $800 would be unthinkable. Not when the FED is pumping money, the USD is falling and multiple wars are about to breakout.

Perhaps. 

Yet, today’s situation is much more complex and we discuss exactly that in our commodities sections covering Gold, Silver and Oil. So, if you would like to find out which way Gold breaks, when and how far it goes, we suggest you CLICK HERE