State of the Market Address:

• The Dow is once again above 21,000.
• Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.77.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
• Weekly RSI at 69.48 – neutral. Daily RSI is at 62.34 – neutral.
• Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,500 today (on weekly).
• Weekly Stochastics at 80.85 – neutral. Daily at 88.80 -overbought.
• NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +25. Neutral.
• Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was slightly lower this week Now at 74K contracts net long. That is to be expected as commercial traders took profit during last week’s spike. We should see volatility long interest higher over the next few weeks. 
• Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has descreased slightly during the week. Once again, due to profit taking. We should expect higher short interest numbers at the end of next week. For now, the Dow is 3X, the S&P is at 2X, Russell 2000 is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 3X short. That is a significant short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

---

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

---

State of the Market Address:

• The Dow is once again above 21,000.
• Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.59.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
• Weekly RSI at 67.52 – neutral. Daily RSI is at 57.63 – neutral.
• Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,500 today (on weekly).
• Weekly Stochastics at 76.00 – neutral. Daily at 91.40 -overbought.
• NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -2. Neutral.
• Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was slightly lower this week Now at 74K contracts net long. That is to be expected as commercial traders took profit during last week’s spike. We should see volatility long interest higher over the next few weeks. 
• Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has descreased slightly during the week. Once again, due to profit taking. We should expect higher short interest numbers at the end of next week. For now, the Dow is 3X, the S&P is at 2X, Russell 2000 is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 3X short. That is a significant short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

---

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

---

Congratulations bulls, you have done IT.

In a quiet pre-holiday trading session the S&P has done something it hasn’t done since 1929.

My data feed shows that in the summer of 1929 the S&P Shiller equivalent has topped out at 29.55. We all know what happened shortly thereafter.

Today, the S&P has quietly and without fanfare surpassed that top by clocking in a staggering valuation level of 29.59.

Now, by this point most bulls are surely screaming “You idiot, just look at the 2000 spike higher to 45”. I understand and perhaps that is the reason most bull continue to anticipate this bull market to keep going for years and at least 50% higher.

• Why the end of a bull market can be a nightmare for bears

Fair enough, but you have to take one very important factor into consideration. Earnings on the S&P, or lack thereof, during 1998-2000 period were highly distorted by overweight tech companies. I have seen very good research that adjusted that P/E all the way down to 26 – a more reasonable estimate (Google It).

Long-story short, here is what I am driving at.

It can be argued that on Friday we saw the S&P hit its highest valuation level in history. Higher than 1929, 1966, 2000 and 2007. 

What happens next? 

Well, bulls would argue, for a million different reasons, that this market will continue to run higher. Trump, bullish technicals, anticipated tax cuts, the FED, etc….  I won’t argue against any of these points today.

I will simply point out that that for the stock market to justify today’s P/E Ratio of 29.59 major economic/earnings expansion needs to take place in the very near future.

An unlikely outcome considering the fact that the FED has already pumped Trillions of dollars in stimulus into the economy over the last few years (QE + zero interest rates) and is now tightening. Failing to ignite anything but speculation and valuations in the process. Plus, as we have discussed so many times before Trump’s Tax Cut Plan is dead on arrival. Find Out Why Trump’s Tax Plan Is Dead On Arrival. 

So, the question remains…..what happens next? 

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

State of the Market Address:

• The Dow is once again above 21,000.
• Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.59.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
• Weekly RSI at 68.59 – neutral. Daily RSI is at 60.85 – neutral.
• Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,500 today (on weekly).
• Weekly Stochastics at 74.25 – neutral. Daily at 94.01 -overbought.
• NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +16. Neutral.
• Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was slightly lower this week Now at 74K contracts net long. That is to be expected as commercial traders took profit during last week’s spike. We should see volatility long interest higher over the next few weeks. 
• Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has descreased slightly during the week. Once again, due to profit taking. We should expect higher short interest numbers at the end of next week. For now, the Dow is 3X, the S&P is at 2X, Russell 2000 is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 3X short. That is a significant short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3. If so, the market is now correcting in an intermediary wave 4. Once wave 4 is completed, the market will  push higher, perhaps to a new all time high in wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

---

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

---

State of the Market Address:

• The Dow is once again above 21,000.
• Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.45 Arguably the second highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and right behind 1929 top at 29.55.
• Weekly RSI at 67.65 – neutral. Daily RSI is at 58.21 – neutral.
• Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,500 today (on weekly).
• Weekly Stochastics at 71.25 – neutral. Daily at 80.04 -overbought.
• NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at 16. Neutral.
• Despite this week’s jump higher VIX/VXX remain near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was slightly higher this week Now at 94K contracts net long. 
• Last week’s CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short.  In fact, short interest further increased as compared to last week. For instance, the Dow is 4X, the S&P is at 2X, Russell 2000 is at 2.5X and the Nasdaq is at 4X short. That is a significant short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the “smart money” is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

---

ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

---