Demeter Capital Weekly Report & COT
As you already know, Matt Demeter’s (Demeter Capital) weekly coverage concentrates on some of the most popular worldwide indices, futures, bonds, stocks, commodities and currencies. Matt’s work is some of the most accurate I have ever seen and it shows. The table below represents just a small portion of work available from Demeter Research. To learn more and to see Matt’s work in action, please Click Here.
Report Date: May 8th, 2016 (Including COT Reports).
For up to the minute long-term and short-term analysis on all of the markets below, please Click Here
What Apple’s (AAPL) Technical Breakdown Means For The Market
5/12/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 11 points (+0.06%) and the Nasdaq down 24 points (-0.50%)
Just prior to Apple’s (AAPL) earnings, a few weeks ago, I have suggested that Apple’s stock price was building a perfect wedge pattern. Here is that article/chart Apple (AAPL) Hits An Important Technical Juncture – What Will It Do Next?
And that is where it gets interesting.
Earlier today Apple’s stock price took out an important wedge support level located at around $92 a share. Not by very much, by about $2.50, but the break was important enough. It suggests, once the stock price follows through, that Apple’s stock price has quite a bit more downside ahead. To the tune of $40-50 per share if we take typical wedge pattern characteristics into consideration.
Impossible?
About a year ago, Twitter (TWTR) had a very similar setup. I wrote about it here Why Twitter (TWTR) Should Go On Your “Stocks To Short” List and here Twitter (TWTR) Is Breaking Down. Is Social Media On Death’s Door?
Here is that chart. Please note, once Twitter broke below wedge support, something Apple did today, it proceeded to collapse over 50%.
And this is where it gets even more interesting. No one cares about Twitter and everyone cares about Apple. You can say that Apple’s (AAPL) stock price is the existential representation of the overall bull market from 2009 lows. And as I have said so many times before, as goes the Apple, the market will follow.
Can today’s technical breakdown be repaired?
Most certainly, but I must be honest, recent price action doesn’t look good for Apple’s stock price. Nor for the overall market.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 12th, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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Demeter Research Daily Trade Update – Oil
Matt executed a trade with Oil (USO) on 4/28/2016 at $11.20. Find out what that trade was (long or short) and why at Demeter Research.
To learn more about Demeter Research and Matt’s trading/analytical framework please Click Here.
Investment Grin Of The Day
Putin Unleashes A Devastating New Weapon: Miniskirts
Well, at least according to the Brits.
You be the judge as we start our day with a good laugh.
Mirror: Vladimir Putin’s all-female ‘miniskirt army’ display their strength in sexist military parade
Russian president Vladimir Putin unleashed his ‘miniskirt army’ for the world to see in a sexist military parade that will likely stun its enemies. The event in Moscow’s Red Square this morning showcased Russia’s modern military war machine – yet the parade of women looked distinctly out of date. Despite the strength of force on show with jets, air defence missile systems and nuclear weapons aplenty, it was the female touch that garnered most attention.
At least they got one thing right. You don’t want to mess with the Russian women.
I don’t know, but it appears that the anti Russian/Putin propaganda, particularly in the U.K., is getting a tad out of hand. And God forbid if you watch either the BBC or CNN. According to them a number of Russian tank divisions are getting ready to do a Blitzkrieg all the way to the Portuguese seashore.
Never forget, the first step in any war is to demonize your enemy. Corporate western media is doing quite a nice job in that regard.
Two Scary Charts Most Bulls Refuse To Acknowledge
5/11/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 216 points (-1.20%) and the Nasdaq down 49 points (-1.02%)
Let’s get straight to the point.
Chart #1: Inflation Adjusted S&P. Despite all of the hoopla about all time highs, the Dow/S&P are sitting at double tops achieved in early 2000. Over 16 years ago. Inflation adjusted that is. The Nasdaq is still down 20%. You would have been the smartest person in the room if you bought 20-30 year Treasury in 2000 yielding 4.5%.
Chart #2: Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio. Shows the stock market that is selling at the third highest valuation level in history. Right behind 1929 and 2000 tops and on par with 2007 top. Do I really have to remind you what had happened shortly after those valuation peaks reversed?
Where am I going with this?
I will let John Hussman tell you.
John Hussman: Expensive Stocks Will Lead to Losses, Paltry Returns
“From present valuations, a market loss of that magnitude would not be a worst-case scenario, but merely a run-of-the-mill completion of the current market cycle. Since the dividend yield on the S&P 500 exceeds 2 percent here, that also implies that we fully expect the S&P 500 Index to trade at a lower level in 10-12 years than it does today.”
Most bulls are extremely happy with what Janet Yellen and the FED where able to accomplish over the last few weeks. Particularly, Why Short Sellers Should Send Janet Yellen a “Thank You” Card
Well, they shouldn’t be. All they have done is set up a massive “bull trap” in what is otherwise the last stage of a secular bear market that started in 2000. And considering valuation/earnings imbalances we are witnessing today, long side investors might be in for a beating of a lifetime.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 11th, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!
Demeter Research Daily Trade Update – Euro Stoxx
Matt executed a trade with Euro Stoxx 50 (FEZ) on 5/10/2016 at $33.4800. Find out what that trade was (long or short) and why at Demeter Research.
To learn more about Demeter Research and Matt’s trading/analytical framework please Click Here.
Investment Wisdom Of The Day
InvestWithAlex Predicts: Donald Trump Will Be The Next President
To be clear, I am no longer affiliated with any political party nor do I support anyone.
With that in mind, our primary stock market timing and mathematical model yielded an important projection. It gave us a very clear sign that Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States.
Unfortunately, I cannot go into details of my projection, due to the risk of jeopardizing our primary premium subscriber forecast. All I can say is this. Our mathematical work and its application to the stock market lines us perfectly with what Mr. Trump has outlined in his campaign. And that can only lead to one conclusion. He will execute on his promises as the next President, unifying our long-term projections with his real world outcome.
It is my intention to reference back to this post in November and to proclaim “I told you so”.
