Demeter Capital Weekly Report & COT
As you already know, Matt Demeter’s (Demeter Capital) weekly coverage concentrates on some of the most popular worldwide indices, futures, bonds, stocks, commodities and currencies. Matt’s work is some of the most accurate I have ever seen and it shows. The table below represents just a small portion of work available from Demeter Research. To learn more and to see Matt’s work in action, please Click Here.
Report Date: March 6th, 2016 (Including COT Reports).
For up to the minute long-term and short-term analysis on all of the markets below, please Click Here
The Day Mr. Market Punched Mr. Draghi In The Mouth
3/10/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 5 points (-0.04%) and the Nasdaq down 12 points (-0.26%)
As Mike Tyson puts it – “Everyone has a plan ’till they get punched in the mouth”
Today’s market action was incredibly important in a sense that I believe Mr. Market finally delivered that first punch in the mouth to the central bankers around the world. Let’s recap.
As was suggested this morning Mario Draghi and the ECB went all it. To say the least.
Draghi’s bazooka just went bust: NYSE trader
Mario Draghi did his best to “wow” the masses this morning. Interest rate cuts and increased quantitative easing (QE) were well within expectations. The attempts at overkill were made in the Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) facility, which is aimed at rescuing the banks (how strange is that?) and the purchase of corporate debt to be included in the QE program. Yeah, just where do you draw that line? Shaking my head. What do they buy next—goods & services?
Considering all of the above the markets should have gone berserk to the upside. And they did, at least for a little bit. That was followed by a massive failure in multiple markets. For instance, the Dow collapsed 300 points while the German DAX lost nearly 5% (top to bottom).
Here is what I believe this failure is telling us. Technicals aside, I believe market participants are starting to get sick and tired of central banker’s BS. And once that actually happens, it will be game over for the ECB/FED/BJ and everyone else.
That is incredibly important.
Central bankers (and investors) around the world believe they can control the markets with nothing more than a statement. Today’s market action suggests that is no longer the case. More importantly, the market is signalling a shift in perception. If Mr.Draghi’s proverbial “Bazooka” failed miserably, there is no reason to believe that the FED will have any more success.
And that in essence spells doom for the over leveraged, overvalued and highly speculative stock market indices around the world.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 10th, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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Investment Grin Of The Day – Markets React To ECB
ECB & Draghi Go All In……Markets Yawn
The European Central Bank (ECB) has moved again to stimulate economic growth in the euro area by cutting interest rates and bolstering its quantitative easing (QE) programme.
The Bank said it was to expand its bond-buying to €80bn per month – up from €60bn – to help improve money supply in the economy. It also trimmed its overnight deposit rate further into negative territory to -0.4% in a new bid to encourage bank lending by charging lenders more to deposit cash with it.
Translation: Desperate times call for desperate actions. Nothing is working and ECB is starting to freak out. That forced Draghi to go all in and blow his proverbial “Bazooka”.
And the result? Well, the Dow futures are up a laughable 120 points as of this writing.
You want to know the truth. Here it is. Former FED President Richard Fisher finally admits to what I have been saying here for years.
We injected cocaine and heroin into the system to enable a wealth effect and now we are maintaining it with ritalin. The Fed is a giant weapon that has no ammunition left.
Insanity….Here, watch for yourself…..
Huh…..What Seven Year Bull Market?
3/9/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 35 points (+0.21%) and the Nasdaq up 25 points (+0.55%)
Mainstream financial media is awash with “Seven Year Bull Market” stories. Case and point…..
Wait a second…..what? Technicalities of what constitutes bull/bear markets aside, and I would hate to rain on everyone’s parade, but the stock market hasn’t gone anywhere in close to 2 years. Take a look at the NYSE (largest index by capitalization) chart below. The index topped out over 1.5 years ago. The Dow put in an important top exactly a year ago on March 2nd, with May 19th being a double top.
But I do remember that date very well. A number of incredibly powerful TIME cycles were arriving between March 6-10th and I was telling everyone to buy. I certainly was. Yet, no one would listen. And I mean NO ONE. Most people who knew about my TIMING analysis dismissed it as “highly unlikely/improbable”.
And I can tell you this with certainty, no one wanted to touch stocks. At any price. Don’t believe me? Here is March 6th 2009 CNBC Stock Market Closing Bell. Note, not a single person screamed out in excitement that stocks were being given away at incredibly low prices and it was time to load up. On the contrary, the mood was gloomy and downright depressing. And of course, it was the right time to buy.
Today, the situation is entirely reversed. Try telling people that the stock market is incredibly overpriced and they will immediately dismiss you as the “boy who cried wolf”. For God’s sake, they are still celebrating a bull market that might have ended almost two years ago. What else do you need to know?
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 9th, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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Investment Grin Of The Day
Gross & Gundlach Warn – No One Pays Attention
Make no mistake. It is just a matter of time before the FED goes interest rate negative. But as Bill Gross kindly points out Negative Rates Are Finance Economy’s Last, Dying Gasp
Instead of historically generating economic growth via a wealth effect and its trickle-down effect on the real economy, negative investment rates and the expansion of central bank balance sheets via quantitative easing are creating negative effects,” he wrote. Negative rates threaten bank profits as well as any business models that depend upon 7-8% annual returns on assets. He’s talking mainly about insurance companies and pension funds, a topic he’s hit on a number of times. “And the damage extends to all savers; households worldwide that saved/invested money for college, retirement or for medical bills. They have been damaged, and only now are becoming aware of it.”
Negative rates are “an enigma to almost all global investors,” he says, that undermine the basic architecture of the financial markets. “But central bankers seem ever intent on going lower, ignorant in my view of the harm being done to a classical economic model that has driven prosperity – until it reached a negative interest rate dead end and could drive no more.”
I couldn’t agree more. Listen, I am not sure how far the FED is willing to go, but only desperate measures remain in their bag of tricks. And even if they do go negative, I am afraid the markets will re-adjust long before that becomes a reality.
Hedge fund manager Jeff Gundlach sees the exact same thing. Here is what he had to say in his latest webcast.
- The Federal Reserve has no business raising rates right now. Markets aren’t pricing in a hike this month in, and no one has forgotten the volatility that ensued after the first hike in December.
- The rally in risk assets is near its end. Stocks have 2% of upside but 20% of downside. And there’s still time to wait for commodities to cheapen more before buying.
- There isn’t a strong case for an imminent US recession.
- Negative interest rates are bad for the world. They are having the opposite effect on currencies like the Japanese yen, which has rallied instead. They are also hurting European banks.
And that’s probably the biggest take away here. People are trying to time the bottom here without realizing that they are working in a 2/20% environment. By the way, Carl Icahn has expressed the same point of view a few months ago. Sometimes it is better to get out the way, than to lose 20-50% of your capital.
What You Ought To Know About Market Timing Here.
3/8/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 111 points (-0.65%) and the Nasdaq down 59 points (-1.26%)
Just a few weeks ago, on February 10th and as the market was bottoming I wrote the following Financial Media Predicts Armageddon – Time To Go Long? At that juncture investors were hard pressed to find a single bullish article out there. Forcing me to suggest that some sort of a market bounce might be just around the corner.
But after a quick 1,500 point rally on the Dow the sentiment has now swung in the opposite direction. That is in addition to the market being extremely overbought by most traditional measures. Case and point……
And that’s just for starters. Some market pundits are once again calling for new all time highs and the Dow 20K by year end.
In reality, the situation is a lot more complicated. For instance, consider the following…..
- S&P Analyst Calls Stock Market Rally Geriatric
- Battle-scarred bull market turns 7
- A disturbing dotcom-era warning sign is reappearing
What should today’s investors take away from it all?
Sequencing.
Here is what I mean. My mathematical and timing work suggests that we will see quite a few massive sell-offs this year alone. Sell-offs that will be followed by incredibly powerful rallies. In other words, while both bulls and bears will be largely disappointed, market timers should walk away with substantial gains. At least in theory.
That is why I believe TIMING and price analysis become imperative over the next few years. Luckily, that is exactly what we do here. Please consider it…… Click Here.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. March 8th, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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