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The Market Is Sitting At A 1929 Valuation Level – Will It Crash Next? (Back On Monday)

1/30/2024 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 133 points (+0.35%) and the Nasdaq down 118 points (-0.76%) 

The stock market continues to behave exactly as anticipated/projected. 

It has been a long time since we have looked at Shiller’s PE Ratio……

Why do I bring this up?

JPMorgan Warns Today’s Market Is “Far More Similar Than One May Think” To The Dotcom Bubble Peak

And I wouldn’t necessarily disagree.

As you can see we have been sitting at extraordinary valuation levels for nearly 10 years now. Today’s valuation levels are on par with 1929 and slightly below 2000 highs. But 2000’s P/E record is somewhat misleading as the index was heavily weighted in tech stocks that didn’t have any earnings.

Long story short, yes, absolutely, the stock market is once again selling at record valuation levels.

Having said that, it has yet to reach its top. As we have been suggesting for some time, the stock market will not complete this bull move until it hits its mathematical Time/Price point of force. If you would like to find out exactly where this point is, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

Posted on

Should You Start Buying Bonds – Hint, Not YET

1/29/2024 – Another positive day with the Dow Jones up 224 points (+0.59%) and the Nasdaq up 172 points (+1.12%) 

The stock market continues to perform as anticipated/projected.

Some investors believe this will be easy…..

Investors parked in cash should consider bonds before the Fed pivots, Nuveen says

    • Bonds have been rallying in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s pivot to rate cuts this year, but today’s higher yields still leave room for buying opportunities, according to Nuveen’s chief investment officer.
    • “Many investors spooked by” the painful repricing of bonds over the past two years “sold their bond positions and piled their money into cash and cash equivalents,” Nuveen CIO Saira Malik, wrote in a Monday client note.
    • Assets in money-market funds have ballooned to about $5.96 trillion over roughly the past year, even with a $1.4 billion decrease seen in the past week, according to data from the Investment Company Institute.

Not so fat.

Our latest 10 Year Note analysis was just posted and you won’t believe what happens next. Let’s just say Bill Ackman might have covered his position too soon.

10- Year Treasury Index (TNX) – UPDATE
Date: January 9th, 2024

Our mathematical and timing work for TNX suggests the following:

      • TNX is moving towards its next half-cycle TOP which is expected to arrive in early XXXX.  We have multiple strong TIME clusters confirming this interest rate high by hitting around XXXX of 2024.
      • Our calculations suggest TNX will top out at XXXX (+/- 0.1%). They also suggest October of 2023 top was NOT the top.
      • Once the top is in TNX will fall into its next mid-cycle bottom scheduled to arrive around XXXX of 2025.
      • And while it is too early to calculate how low the 10-Year will go, a hit around XXXX is probable.

In summary, our price and time calculations suggest the top for TNX is not yet in. It is scheduled to arrive in XXXX of 2024 and top out at around XXXX. Then be cut in half by XXXX 2025. This is consistent with our overall stock market forecast.

IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO FIND OUT EXACT TIME AND PRICE PARAMETERS ABOVE -PLEASE CLICK HERE