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Investment Wisdom Of The Day

stock market DNAHere is the best explanation I came across when I first started research into my mathematical and timing work. And after more than a decade of development work behind me, I can attest that the statement below is 100% accurate.

Markets being, at minimum, a three-dimensional phenomena, exactly like a large molecule rotating in space, in and out of Z plane, with DNA coding sequences governing the entire process. Without understanding the market is 3-D, twisting like a plant governed by the phyllotactic laws of dual number series and harmonic composition and decomposition, all measurements taken on a 2-D chart become misleading. – Dr. B

Z30

The Secret Behind How The Stock Market Really Works  Google

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Carl Icahn: Earnings Are Shockingly Overinflated

With most Corporates about to report Carl Icahn believes earnings are overinflated by at least 20%. Watch the video below. Plus, he reaffirms his view that the stock market is overpriced and most likely in a bubble.

I have been saying the same thing for quite a while now. For instance, Is Today’s “Real” Stock Market P/E Ratio Above 30? -OR- BlackRock: Most Of Corporate Earnings Growth (If Any) Is Accounting Driven

I have said it before and I will say it again. Today’s distortions are so great that the FED’s Ponzi Finance makes Bernie Madoff look like a boy scout. But its more than that. Everyone is playing the same accounting game. Whether it is through low interest rates, share buybacks or outright accounting gimmicks.

While impossible to calculate, I would say that a more normalized environment would add 5 to 10 points to today’s P/E ratios. By the way, Shiller’s Adjusted P/E Ratio is still at 24. Turning an already expensive market into “are you freaking kidding me overpriced accident” waiting to happen.

Interesting times ahead, that’s for sure.

z32

Carl Icahn: Earnings Are Shockingly Overinflated Google

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Shocking: Here Is Exactly Where The Market Will Bottom

Daily Chart AJanuary 21 InvestWithAlex

1/21/2016 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 113 points (+0.72%) and the Nasdaq up 1 point (+0.01%)

I was incredibly excited when I first saw this article.

Finally, someone else who knows exactly where this “bear market” will end. Instead, the author deflated it with the following whimper…..

The selloff will end when investors feel prices have fallen by enough to account for whatever bad news might still be lurking, undiscovered. The problem is that nobody knows with precision how much asset prices need to correct. “Rarely do financial markets find the fair value that’s fundamentally justified, and stop,” says Jeffrey Rosenberg, a managing director at money manager BlackRock (BLK). “They overshoot. It’s really hard to say whether we’re at fair value, or we’ve overshot.”

And five times five is twenty five. But I would have to disagree with this earth-shattering revelation. It IS possible to predict and to know. That is exactly what my mathematical and timing work does.

For instance, in October and November of 2015 I told my subscribers that the Dow was looking for a lower low (below May of 2015). And that once that low is in and confirmed, we would know, with a high degree of certainty, exactly WHERE and WHEN the Dow will bottom. To the day and to the point.

And as buffoonish as it may sound, I stand by that statement. Not only do I stand by it, I am currently looking at the said calculation projecting the market into an exact bottom. One thing is clear. If it is correct, and I  am confident that it is, crocodile tears will soon flood the neighborhood of where the wall meets the street.  Click Here to learn more.

And those who proclaim the impossibility of the above should understand the following.

But it certainly casts a cloud over any bargain hunting. And note that these numbers only measure how far the market would have to fall to reach average levels. They do not reflect what would happen if the market did what it has done frequently in the past, and plunged back down to very cheap levels. Maybe that will never happen. Let’s hope. Because when you factor in those numbers, it’s a long way down.

Precisely. Despite the recent sell-off, today’s stock market is still incredibly overpriced. And I don’t care if your Charles Schwab financial adviser disagrees. Today’s stock market is the 4th most expensive in history. Right behind 1929, 2000 and 2007 tops. I have covered this fact on this blog extensively…..here is just a small sample Is Our Overvaluation Premise Wrong?

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update.January 21st, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Shocking: Here Is Exactly Where The Market Will Bottom  Google

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When You Are Worth $50 Billion & You Are Still Not The Richest Guy At The Table

buffett and gates investwithalex

We have talked about this before, but it’s worth taking another look.

And while most people will never get it, we have only the FED to blame for this wealth disparity. When the wealthy have access to zero or negative rate financing on a massive scale, that is exactly what you get. I will simply repeat what I have said here before.

First, this stagnates the economy. The accumulated wealth held by so very few people is not being properly allocated to benefit the overall economy. For the most part, it just sits there accumulating interest. Second, it creates social unrest. If history teaches us anything, eventually, this type of a “social setup” leads to revolutions or worst, wars.

And there lies the problem with the overall US Economy and the upcoming severe recession of 2015-2017. Those who study finance or financial markets know that there are no free lunches. Sooner or later you have to pay the piper for financial misdeeds and capital missallocation. No economy can grow over an extended period of time when only the top 1-20% of the population benefits…..again, thanks to the misguided FED policies. And while the top 20% are enjoying their rewards for the time being, the upcoming bear market of will impact them the most (unless they go short at the right time).

I think I smell another bailout in the future.

Z31

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Should Investors Be Panicking Right About Now?

Daily Chart AJanuary 20 InvestWithAlex

1/20/2016 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 249 points (-1.55%) and the Nasdaq down 5 points (-0.12%) 

If you are keeping track, and not very many people are by this point, the Dow has lost 10% since the beginning of the year while the Nasdaq has lost 11%. And while most bulls were expecting a blow off rally to new highs just a few short-weeks ago, such dreams no longer exist in today’s market environment.

But investors must remember, financial markets don’t travel in straight lines. And given today’s extremely oversold conditions and technical indicators, some sort of a bounce is imminent. Or is it?

Let’s quickly look at two charts. First, today’s S&P…..s&p chart long-term

As you can see, it broke below an important technical support level earlier today. Quite by a considerable margin. Suggesting that the break was real.  Something similar had happened in 1987. At least structurally or sentiment wise.

s&p 1987Once the S&P broke below prior support in 1987, it proceeded to collapse in now infamous crash.

Are we dealing with something similar here and should investors be panicking right about now? 

Yes and no. Yes, in a sense that we are operating under very similar technical and sentiment conditions. As my earlier blog post suggested, investor sentiment has turned violently bearish. Plus, the market is heavily oversold, by most traditional measures. Again, similar conditions existed right before the 1987 crash.

At the same time, we are in a completely different cyclical environment. At least according to my mathematical and timing work. An environment that doesn’t necessarily call for a crash.

That is to say, while conditions for a crash certainly exist, it is just as likely that we will experience a monster short covering rally or a bounce.

So, which way will the market swing?

While our long-term forecast is crystal clear, short-term it is incredibly complex. But if you are still interested, please Click Here to find out.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update.January 20th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Should Investors Be Panicking Right About Now? Google

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Cramer Turns Super Bearish. Time To Go Long?

As I was shorting stocks in early March (mathematical top) and mid May of 2015 (double top), Cramer was openly making fun of all the naysayers and bears. At that time no one could have imagined that the Dow would be below 16,000 in August of 2015 and today.

Now, it is the opposite. Investors are finally starting to freak out. Open any financial media outlet and you will find it filled with “Crash” articles and bear market calls. Here is just a small sample from today.

You get the picture. Perhaps they are right and the market will crash. Yet, it is just as likely that this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime that they have been peddling for years. Of course, when the market is hitting all time highs.

If you are tired of all the noise and would like to find out what the market will do next, please Click Here.

z32

Cramer Turns Super Bearish. Time To Go Long? Google

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Is The FED To Blame For This Market Sell-Off?

Daily Chart AJanuary 19 InvestWithAlex

1/19/2016 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 28 points (+0.18%) and the Nasdaq down 11 points (-0.26%) 

In a sense, absolutely. Here is a fairly good summary of what is going on. This video is definitely worth a few minutes of your time. 

I would have to agree with Peter Schiff here. I have been saying the same thing for over a year now. The FED will be unable to raise interest rates in any meaningful way. A 25 bps raise we have seen so far is laughable. Yet, the 10%+ sell-off it has triggered is not. And while we are likely to get another bump at the next meeting, I am doubtful that they will raise again.

As a result of this FED induced disastrous bubble, we will see a number of important structural themes play out over the next few years as the FED blinks and attempts to flood the market with liquidity again.

  • The stock market will have a sizable sell-off into 2017 bottom. At least according to my mathematical and timing work. Click Here to learn more.
  • Interest rates…-10 Year Note should see a double bottom at around 1.4-1.5% over the next 2 years. 10-Year Note: All Systems Are A Go For A Double Bottom
  • The US Dollar should decline. Don’t forget, commercials have a substantial short position against the dollar.

Now, mind you, all of the above is counter to what most investors today expect or believe. That should not come as a surprise.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update.January 19th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is The FED To Blame For This Market Sell-Off?  Google