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What The Hell Is Happening With This Stock Market? The Answer Is Very Simple

The stock market continues to behave exactly as anticipated. 

If you would recall, we saw complete Gloom & Doom at the end of October, with nearly everyone expecting some sort of a market crash.  Well, we didn’t, as we continued to maintain that all indices will see new all time highs before it is all said and done.

Today, most investors, professional or not, are dumbfounded by what they are witnessing.

Recession red flags: Wall Street and Main Street are at odds about the economy

    • The U.S. stock market may be at an all-time high, but the “Wall Street – Main Street disconnect” remains wider than ever — and that spells trouble ahead.
    • Specifically, there’s a dramatic difference in perspectives about the health of the U.S. economy. On the one hand is Wall Street celebrating the stock market’s new records, with many believing the Federal Reserve has avoided a recession by executing a “soft landing.”
    • Yet the average American is much more pessimistic. I receive numerous emails from readers describing significant and sudden slowdowns in their particular industries and widespread fears in their communities of how much worse it could become in coming months. And the data confirm what they’re saying.

The above is understandable, but our approach to the overall market analysis is rather simple.

You see, the overall market hasn’t yet completed its mathematical pattern that it needs to complete before any further downside is possible. Hence the confusion between today’s fundamental deterioration and the stock market’s apparent positive outlook.

In other words, the market must complete its pattern and hit its mathematical and timing points of force first.  And until that happens it will NOT go down. No matter what happens with the overall economy, geopolitically, etc……  It is as simple as that.

If you would like to find out exactly where this time/price point in, in both price and time, please Click Here. 

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Long Live The USD

1/22/2024 – Another positive day with the Dow Jones up 138 points (+0.36%) and the Nasdaq up 49 points (+0.32%) 

No changes to our prior or weekly updates. Longer-term, the market is playing out exactly as it should or as per our overall forecast.

The only additional data point we have has to do with our short-term Intraday calculations. We have a short-term point of force arriving on XXXX (+/- 1 trading day). This point might cause one more pullback before we make that final run higher towards the targets outlined below. We will identify this point with more precision as we get closer. Click Here to see the rest………

Most investors have presumed the US Dollar will decline going forward.  Its a sure bet if you consider those FED Rate cuts everyone is talking about. Case and point……

Dollar Longs Are Steadily Throwing The Towel In

    • Speculators are reducing the number of currencies they are short versus the dollar, as well as increasing the size of their bets against it. The real yield curve shows that the dollar should trend lower over the coming months. The dollar may have had a good start to the year, with the DXY up almost 2%, but speculators appear to have little faith this strength will continue.

Our mathematical and timing work for DXY is somewhat clear. The US Dollar strength will increase throughout the year.  And YES, it will eventually collapse, but not quite yet.

Here is why ………. Fed cuts or not…..

Take a look at the DXY in 2008 or any other major pullback in the market. Typically, the US Dollar becomes stronger as money flows out of the market looking for safety. Considering today’s massive imbalances, it would be prudent to assume the inflows into the DXY will be significant when the next bear market hits – something that we expect to happen very soon by the way.

So, in typical market’s fashion the DXY might do something that no one is expecting it to do. Run up to an all time high. Please review our US Dollar forecast in our membership section for more information and exact Time/Price targets. Click Here

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Is China About To Bottom ??

1/25/2024 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 242 points (+0.64%) and the Nasdaq up 28 points (+0.18%) 

The stock market continues to behave exactly as anticipated/projected.

The following data point caught my eye.

China’s Plunge-Protection Team Buys Billions In ETFs To Halt Market Rout

    • “The national team is likely stepping to stabilize the market as they have done in previous market crashes,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.
    • And as Beijing bought, foreign investors were again aggressive sellers of mainland stocks after they dumped 13 billion yuan ($1.8 billion) worth of shares in the previous session, the most in more than a year.
    • Meanwhile, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index finished the day 0.8% higher, reversing an earlier decline of 0.6%. Down 10% this year, the HSCEI gauge is the world’s worst-performing major index. As for the CSI 1000, it was the familiar diagonal “PPT is here” line as Beijing didn’t leave any doubt about its presence.

I found it interesting because according to our mathematical time and price calculations Shanghai SE is about to bottom and stage a powerful rally.  We wrote about it a little while ago.

Our mathematical and timing analysis for Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) shows the following……

    • SSE is currently moving into its mid-cycle bottom scheduled to arrive on XXXX.
    • Our mathematical calculations suggest the bottom will arrive around XXXX (+/- 50 points)
    • Once the bottom is put in place SSE should rally into its next mid cycle top, scheduled to arrive in 2025. 
    • Our calculations suggest SSE will run up to at least XXXX by 2025. 

In summary, Shanghai Stock Exchange is bottoming very soon. Once the bottom is put in place SSE should rally into a mid-cycle top by XXXX of 2025. A long-term double top formation at that juncture is likely.

If you would like to see our exact Time/Price targets for Shanghai SE, please Click Here

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Regional Banks Are Set To SURGE !!! Wait, What???

Small/Regional Banks ETF (IAT) – Update
Date of Analysis: January 17th, 2024

We had an exact hit on our prior bottom projection in May of 2023.  Going forward, our timing and mathematical work for IAT suggests the following:

  • As our prior forecast suggested, there was an exact hit on our bottom target of $30 (+/- $1) on May 4th, 2023.
  • Now, since we have the exact bottom confirmed, we have more accurate top projections.
  • Note that we are still within the variance of the top composite cycle. There is a strong cluster arriving on XXXX (+/- 2 weeks).
  • Precise mathematical calculations lead to $86 +/- $2 target.

In summary, we have an important divergence between our top TIME projection and our top PRICE target of $86. Meaning……..Click Here

Having said that, if you would like to find out what the stock market will do next, in both price and time, please Click Here.