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Find Out Why Gold Is Going Much Lower

Quite a few investors are passionate about Gold. And while their fundamental case that Gold must sell at much higher prices might very well be right, the market could care less about what people think. The market will do what it needs to do in order to hit important mathematical points of force.

Matt Demeter believes Gold will head much lower as the long-term bottom for the metal is not yet in. As a matter of fact, GOLD will have to fall quite a bit more before a bear market bottom is put in place. Please watch the video below for more information. The same type of an analysis applies to the rest of the financial markets we follow. To learn more about Matt’s work and Gold please CLICK HERE. 

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Find Out Why Gold Is Going Much Lower Google

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Just A “Healthy” Correction Or Something More?

Daily Chart ANovember 12 InvestWithAlex

11/12/2015 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 254 points (-1.44%) and the Nasdaq down 62 points (-1.22%) 

At this juncture most investors have assumed that the correction is over and that the market will push higher over the next few months/years. In fact, the Dow 20K is once again just around the corner. As is illustrated in the video here  Fed must weigh impact of new financial market landscape: Yellen

“It is crucial to understand the effect of regulations and possible changes in financial intermediation on monetary policy implementation and transmission,” Yellen added.

In other words, “Blah, blah, blah”, we have no idea how we will raise rates without setting off a major correction in MOST asset classes.

On the flip side, I believe this guy has the right idea. The Fed’s going to trick the market, again: Trader

Which is the view I have expressed here so many times before. Particularly, what the FED will do is as clear as night and day. It goes something like this…..

  1. Can’t raise or won’t raise. Today’s economy or financial markets won’t be able to digest any rate increases at this juncture. Period. As talked about on this blog so many times before. Why The FED Will Not Raise Interest Rates If the FED members have even an ounce of intelligence, and I believe they do, they realize the same. Point being, they won’t raise in any meaningful way. If at all.
  2. If the market declines, issue a “Dovish” statement. Bring it up. (Late September)
  3. If the market recovers, issue a “Hawkish” statement. As they did last week. Remember, they don’t want things too overheated.
  4. Rinse and repeat while praying the market and/or the US Economy won’t implode on their own.

Finally, no one has stopped to consider the other alternative. That the rally off of August 24th or September 29th lows is not the beginning of the next leg up, but a corrective motion. For instance, the market left quite a few down gaps. Down gaps it will have to close sooner or later. The angular composition of this move higher, at 85 degrees, suggests a counter trend rally, not a structural move higher.

In other words, the market is suggesting this move higher might be a bounce as opposed to a new bull market. If true, today’s “Healthy” correction can very well turn into a major sell-off.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. Noveber 12th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Just A “Healthy” Correction Or Something More? Google

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Something Interesting

I love historic pictures. This car crash is form 1921 New York. As a reference point, the Dow Jones bottomed in August of 1921 at 63.9. That was just 10% higher than an important top 22 years earlier. The Dow would go on to surge to 390 by 1929. At 1932 bottom the Dow was selling 40.56. Price first achieved in 1872. In other words, 1929-1932 collapse wiped out 60 years worth of market gains. historic picture investwithalex

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Carl Icahn: Earnings Are Way Overinflated

Carl Icahn believes earnings are overinflated by at least 20%. Watch the video below. Plus, he reaffirms his view that the stock market is overpriced and most likely in a bubble.

I have been saying the same thing for quite a while now. For instance, Is Today’s “Real” Stock Market P/E Ratio Above 30? -OR- BlackRock: Most Of Corporate Earnings Growth (If Any) Is Accounting Driven

I have said it before and I will say it again. Today’s distortions are so great that the FED’s Ponzi Finance makes Bernie Madoff look like a boy scout. But its more than that. Everyone is playing the same accounting game. Whether it is through low interest rates, share buybacks or outright accounting gimmicks.

While impossible to calculate, I would say that a more normalized environment would add 5 to 10 points to today’s P/E ratios. By the way, Shiller’s Adjusted P/E Ratio is still at 26. Turning an already expensive market into “are you freaking kidding me overpriced accident” waiting to happen.

Interesting times ahead, that’s for sure.

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Carl Icahn: Earnings Are Overinflated Google

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Has China Been Fixed?

Daily Chart ANovember 11 InvestWithAlex

11/11/2015 – A down day with the Dow Jones down 57 points (-0.32%) and the Nasdaq down 16 points (-0.32%). 

Has China been fixed?

If your think in a linear fashion, which would eventually be devastating to your investment returns, the answer is YES. One Less Hurdle for Fed Hike: China Comes Back From Danger Zone

When the Federal Reserve in September held off from its first interest-rate increase since 2006, the U.S. central-bank head cited growing concerns about China’s market turmoil among the reasons. “A lot of our focus has been on risks around China,” she said in a press conference after the decision.

The above is just another data point that the FED is now a market puppet. The reality is quite different. Take a look at this 3-year Chinese Large Cap ETF (FXI).

China Market Investwithalex

Does it look like the worst is behind us?  

Well, one can argue that the bottom has been put in place and that the Chinese market is now ready to stage a come back rally.  Yet, I can just as easily argue that we are in the early stages of a more severe decline. Think 2000-2002 on the Nasdaq. There are no technical confirmations either way. At least not yet. As a result, we have to rely on the fundamentals. And the picture there is kind of scary.

In other words, it is kind of presumptuous to assume that China has somehow bottomed. If anything, their fundamentals continue to deteriorate. In July of this year I have suggested the following China’s Nasdaq 2000 Crash Is Set For A Bounce  And while I was a few weeks early, we did get that bounce. A bounce that might now be over.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. Noveber 11th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Has China Been Fixed Google

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Why Facebook Remains An Amazing Short Opportunity

I continue to maintain that Facebook (FB) is probably the best SHORT out there. For the reasons outlined here, Why Short Sellers Should Drool All Over Facebook  And also here, Is Facebook (FB) Cooking “Likes”…..Again?

As a quick update, I have witnessed FAKE likes/views on my dead page skyrocket about 5X over the last few weeks. Listen, I don’t have anything against Facebook. Just pointing out the fact that they are insanely overvalued while cooking their internal viewership and interaction metrics. Metrics quite a few people depend on to value the company.

Further, Marc Andreessen sells $96.5M in Facebook stock (half his stake). Does he know something other investors don’t?

Finally, consider the video below. I have to admit, I cannot verify the information in this video. However, if true, it points to what I have suggested above. Facebook is cutting major corners in their attempts to increase “eyeballs”, interactions and add revenue. That only works until it doesn’t. Just ask MySpace and many others.

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Why Facebook Remains An Amazing Short Opportunity Google

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Just How Unlikely Is Another Bear Leg Here?

Daily Chart ANovember 10 InvestWithAlex

11/10/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 28 points (+0.16%) and the Nasdaq down 12 points (-0.24%)

A couple of interesting things to consider here today. First, here is how most investors today think. The next 1000-point down day is coming

For those worried about a financial collapse who keep yelling “global debt,” we are not on the cusp of another financial collapse. There is simply too much available money in the world and more at the ready whenever anything remotely resembling a collapse threatens. Remember, don’t fight the Fed? Well, don’t fight the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, People’s Bank of China and any number of other central banks either. If they have to monetize (socialize) half of the planet’s debt and worry about inflation later, that’s what they will do. Mind you, I’m not arguing that’s right, I’m just saying it is reality.

I would tend to agree, but don’t make the mistake of believing the stock market cannot have a big down leg here. It can and it will

The stock market is a function of multiple TIME cycles oscillating within its composition. Meaning, when the time is right, the stock market will decline. No matter what the FED or the Bank of Japan do. It is just as much about investor psychology as it is about liquidity and valuations..

Now, not that we need another confirmation point, but here you go…..

consumer creditThe article attached to this chart suggests that the FED will raise interest rates to take away the proverbial “punch bowl”. After all, they don’t want things getting out of control.

I am sorry to pop anyone’s bubble, but things are already out of control. All time high in consumer credit is yet another data point to suggest that we are in a massive financial or speculative bubble. The time to take this punch bowl away was 3 years ago. The FED has missed the boat.  Now, it will have to collapse under its own weight.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. Noveber 10th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Just How Unlikely Is Another Bear Leg Here? Google

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How To Eat Nails For Breakfast

valeant

Participate in financial markets long enough and sooner or later you will get your head handed to you. And I don’t care how good you are, sometimes things are simply out of your control. Highly publicized Bill Ackman’s Valeant (VRX) investment is a perfect example of that.

Last week we talked about value investing and how difficult or gut wrenching it can be to purchase great businesses for 0.50….0.25…..0.10 cents on the dollar. What Value Investors Ought To Know About Investing In Today’s Market

Mr. Ackman offers another $2 Billion learning experience (his losses thus far). If you believe in your investment thesis strong enough and your analysis checks out, stay put. Even double up. All successful investors out there had similar defining moments. Ackman says Valeant stock ‘extraordinary bargain’

“Life will go on for Valeant,” he said. “While this has been a very damaging moment for the company … we think the Valeant business is quite robust.” Ackman said he thought the stock was “tremendously undervalued” and had an “89% upside.” He added that investors were forgetting the “rest of Valeant’s business.”

Perhaps another hedge fund manager, Whitney Tilson, has said it the best……

Every investor should analyze this case study to learn from Ackman’s experience, as every last one of us has had (and will have) to deal with a major investment going south. How do you collect more information, filter out the noise, analyze the situation, control your emotions, and ultimately make the right decision among four choices: dump it all, trim, hold, or buy? It is almost never obvious what the right answer is — rather, every option feels really crappy when you’ve lost a lot of money on an investment, especially if you’re in the hot glare of the public spotlight. I’ve been there and it’s no fun.

In other words, if you want to succeed in this business, learn to eat nails for breakfast. Preferably without milk.

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How To Eat Nails For Breakfast Google